小英政府在台美外交國防上的一些進展,讓我回想起23年前,我受邀到白宮訪問,向美方提出的一份書面意見書,那份意見書,經過多年很多點已有逐步在實現,尤其是那份意見書的第四點,我希望我們仍然可以穩健一步一腳印,在對的方向上繼續努力。
1996年我受美國政府邀請赴美訪問。那次美國行,有一個重要的參訪,就是訪問白宮「美國國家安全會議」及「美國國防大學」。那一次我進到白宮,與美國國家安全會議的亞洲主任蘇葆立(Robert L. Suettinger)直接面對面的會談。因為此人除了為中國專家外,也是台海兩岸的專家,當時對台政策具有相當的影響力。為此,我在出發前特別與國內的幾位學者專家討論後,決定趁這難得的機會,表明我認為對台灣是很重要的立場,所以我鄭重地準備了一份書面的聲明,其中最重要的幾點是:
一、台灣經過百年的奮鬥,台灣人民於去年終於有了第一次自己選總統的機會,台灣人民開始享有民主的權利與自由,台灣不再屈服於外來統治,多數台灣人民當然感謝美國對台灣的協助,但台灣前途應由台灣人自己決定,沒有任何外來力量,特別是從未統治過台灣的中華人民共和國,沒有台灣人民的同意,根本沒有合法權力可以來統治台灣。
二、鑑於台海飛彈危機,美國應該讓台灣加入「區域飛彈防禦系統」(Theater Missile Defence System, TMD),以維持區域的穩定與安全。
三、過去美國對台灣人的簽證,名義上都是在香港簽署,1997年7月1日後香港即將回歸中國,過去美國並沒有承諾台灣人的美國簽證應在香港簽署,所以香港回歸中國後,台灣人民的美國簽證,不可再名義上在美國的香港總領事館簽署,那時台灣人民所繳納的美國簽證費是全世界最多的,應該直接在台灣的美國機構直接簽署。
四、從1973到1978年,美國與台灣,在華盛頓與台北有彼此的大使館,在那同時美國與中國也在華盛頓與北京各有稱為Liaison Office,實際上是大使館的官方代表處。這樣的安排,其實是雙重承認,中國那時並沒有反對,所以我認為美國也應適時地改變我們彼此政府的代表機構,將「TECRO」改為「台灣代表辦事處」(Taiwan Liaison Office in the USA),而AIT也請改為美國代表辦事處(US Liaison Office in Taiwan)用代表處相稱,以反映事實。
五、我們呼籲美國協助台灣加入國際政府組織(International Government Organizations, IGOs),尤其是在兩岸同時加入世界貿易組織(WTO)後,我們希望能加入世界銀行(World Bank)、國際貨幣組織(IMF)、世界電信聯盟(International Telecommunication Union, ITU)、世界衛生組織(World Health Organization, WHO)等等。
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Day 2: Seminar Dunia Pelaburan Saham sesi terakhir Kuala Lumpur 2014 bersama Dato' Dr Nazri Khan, First Vice President Affin Hwang Capital & President of MATA.
"Trading is For Living"....
[MY FORECAST NEW YEAR 2015]
Alhamdulillah. Looking forward to my first political seminar along with Malaysian respectable politicians on 2015 Economic & Stock Market Outlook.
All friends invited to attend. 27th January, Sunway Resort Hotel.
My humble FORECAST in 2015 :
2015 will see USA Federal Reserve unwind its huge USD3 trillion financial stimulus and start to hike interest rates, first time in eight years.
2015 will see Bank Of Japan and European Central Bank to start pumping in USD1 trillion yen and Euro 1 trillion to boost their flagging economies.
2015 will see Malaysia chairing ASEAN and the launch of Asean Economic Community and ASEAN stock exchange by October 2015.
2015 will see the start of mega bank merger in Malaysia. Expect the biggest Malaysian Bank to be born with more than RM100 billion market cap next year.
2015 will see Malaysia finally implement Good Service Tax at 6% (lowest in ASEAN) after the long planning since 1992, Mahathir Prime Minister and Anwar Ibrahim, Finance Minister era. Malaysia are the third last ASEAN countries to implement GST.
2015 will see more than 10 mega IPO in Bursa Malaysia which includes 1MDB, Malakoff, Weststar, Iskandar Waterfront, Al Medini, Khazanah Theme Park, Ekuinas Ilmu, Sunway Construction, Sime Auto and Ecoworld International.
2014 will be officially Bursa Malaysia fourth WORST year in history, after 2008, 1997 and 1994. Year to date, Bursa has dipped 226 points or 11.8% ever since it
touched the highest record on the 8th July 2014.
2014 will be the first Bursa losing year after five straight profitable years since 2008. Not bad, given that Bursa has gained a whopping 1095 points or 135% since 28th October 2008 bottom.
2014 Bursa worst sectors are plantation and oil gas while the best Bursa sectors are technology and construction. All four sectors should be a good buy next year especially technology stocks if USA solid economy continue.
2015 should see Bursa renew momentum and continue the uptrend driven by the return of foreign inflows. As at today, foreign investors hold 45% of Malaysian Bonds and 23% of Malaysian equities, among the lowest in history.
2015 hottest economic issues will be falling ringgit, falling oil, rising inflation, rising interest rates, rising household debt, illicit money outflow and New Economic Model of Malaysian 11th Economic Plan.
2015 hottest political issues will be 1MDB Berhad, Anwar Sodomy Verdict, Seditious Act, Hudud Row, Pakatan Solidarity, Felda Group, Malaysia Airlines Berhad and UMNO New Political Model. Expect to see the rise of Malaysian political temperature and more confrontation Malay liberals vs Malay extremes.
2015 will see oil even cheaper than water. Within five months, oil price has crashed from USD110 to USD55 per barrel. It now costs RM1 to buy a litre of oil, compare
to water which is RM2 a litre. Ironically, RON 95 and Milo Tarik have not fallen as much.
2015 will see more currencies volatility. Forex traders are set to return. Top Five worst currencies in 2014 are Russian Rouble, Chilean Peso, Argentina Peso, Colombian Peso and Ukraine Hryvnia which have tumbled more than 20%. Ringgit which is already down 12% is yet to join the fray. Russia has shockingly raised its key interest rate to 17% from 10% after the collapse of the rouble currency.
2015 will see the return of Avian Influenze H5. Japanese officials slaughtered 4,000 chickens after confirming the H5 strain of bird flu at a poultry farm in the
southwest of the country. More widespread H5 will push Malaysian healthcare and glove stocks higher.
2015 will see the return of El Nino. Australian Weather Bureau confirmed 70% probabilities of El Nino emerging by February 2015 in the Pacific Ocean. This should be supportive of global aggro commodities including Malaysian Palm Oil.
2015 biggest DANGER to Global Stock Market will be GREECE. Signs suggest Greece may leave European Union if the left radicals, Syriza Party win the Greece general election this month. If this materialize, expect Greece exit to tear off Euro.
My overall take : 2015 will be the Best Stock Picking year for all investors and traders, despite higher Malaysian political temperature and rising interest rate, given the solid USA economy, cheaper Bursa stocks, super attractive risk-reward and huge selling seen over the last six month.
~ Nazri Khan, Affin Hwang Investment Bank.
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