Northwest's Salmon Population May Be Running Out of Time
A Washington state report put it bluntly ( ): Because of the devastating ( ) effects of climate change and deteriorating ( ) habitats ( ), several species of salmon in the Pacific Northwest are “on the brink of ( ) extinction ( ).”
Of the 14 species of salmon and steelhead trout in Washington state that have been deemed ( ) endangered ( ) and are protected under the Endangered Species Act, 10 are lagging ( ) recovery goals, and five are considered “in crisis,” according to the 2020 State of Salmon in Watersheds report.
“Time is running out,” said the report, which is produced every other year ( ) by the Washington state Recreation and Conservation Office. “The climate is changing, rivers are warming, habitat is diminishing ( ), and the natural systems that support salmon in the Pacific Northwest need help now more than ever.”
Researchers say recovery efforts — involving state and federal agencies, Native American tribes, local conservation groups and others — have helped slow the decline of some salmon populations. The report found that two species — the Hood Canal summer chum and Snake River fall chinook — were approaching ( ) their recovery goals. It also noted that no new salmon species had been added to the endangered list since 2007.
“We are at least treading water,” said Kaleen Cottingham, director of the Washington state Recreation and Conservation Office. “We have not, however, seen the kind of progress ( ) that we had hoped for.”
With the effects of climate change expected to accelerate ( ), researchers said that more must be done to prevent further population decline and the possible extinction of some species.
Salmon play a vital ( ) role in the environment, economy and culture of the Pacific Northwest. At least 138 species depend on salmon for their food in some way. Salmon support an estimated ( ) 16,000 jobs in the fishing industry, and they are a draw ( ) for tourists.
Before the 20th century, an estimated 10 million to 16 million adult salmon and steelhead trout returned annually to the Columbia River system. The current return of wild fish is 2% of that.
One of the largest factors inhibiting salmon recovery is habitat loss. A growing human population has led to development along the shoreline and the addition of bulkheads, or sea walls, that encroach ( ) on beaches where salmon generally find insects and other food. More pavement ( ) and hard surfaces have contributed to an increase in toxic stormwater runoff ( ) that pollutes Puget Sound.
美國西北部鮭魚 陷瀕臨絕種危機
華盛頓州一篇報告直截了當指出,由於氣候變遷跟棲地劣化的毀滅性影響, 美國西北部有數種鮭魚「瀕臨滅絕」。
根據《2020年水域內鮭魚狀況報告》,華盛頓州有14種鮭魚和虹鱒被認定為瀕危物種,並受到《瀕危物種法》保護,其中10種復育進度未能達標,有5種更被認定「處於危機之中」。
這份由華盛頓州休閒與保育辦公室兩年發表一次的報告說:「時間不多了。氣候正在改變,河流水溫正在升高,棲地正在減少,供養美國西北部鮭魚生存的自然系統,如今比以往任何時候都更需要幫助。」
研究人員說,由州與聯邦機構、美國原住民部落、地方保育組織和其他機構共同參與的復育行動,緩和了一些鮭魚數量的減少。報告中發現胡德運河夏天的鉤吻鮭與蛇河秋天的帝王鮭兩種鮭魚,復育正接近目標。報告還指出,自2007年以來沒有新的鮭魚種列入瀕危名單。
華盛頓州休閒與保育辦公室主任Kaleen Cottingham說:「我們至少勉強穩住了情況,但我們沒有看到我們所期望的進展。」
研究人員表示,氣候變遷的影響料將加速,必須更加努力以防止鮭魚數量進一步減少和一些魚種的滅絕。
鮭魚在美國西北部環境、經濟與文化中扮演至關重要角色。在某種程度上,至少有138個物種以鮭魚為食。鮭魚為漁業提供約1萬6千個工作,並吸引大量遊客。
20世紀以前,估計每年有1000萬到1600萬成年鮭魚和虹鱒回到哥倫比亞河水系。目前返回的野生鮭魚數量只有這個數字的2%。
阻礙鮭魚復育的最大原因之一為棲地喪失,不斷成長的人口導致海岸沿線的開發,加上隔板或海堤的增加,這些侵占了鮭魚平常尋找昆蟲及其他食物的海灘。更多的鋪裝路面和堅硬的地面導致有毒雨水流量的增加,進而汙染了普吉特海灣。
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同時也有10000部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過2,910的網紅コバにゃんチャンネル,也在其Youtube影片中提到,...
return loss影響 在 Facebook 的最佳解答
[今日寫啲乜]其實係兩篇文,呢個圖只係下集。上集冇出「今日寫啲乜」。點解?因為月尾多數冇人join,Anyway,兩篇都係周末專題,我會寫啲大課題心法嘢case study.同平時一至五嘅唔同。今次上下集,夾埋8000字。有圖有Excel畀你玩
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2004年夏天,兩隻家傳戶曉嘅新股上市,一隻係Domino’s Pizza(DPZ),一隻係Google(GOOGL),你今日坐時光機返去,會買邊隻?
咁我個題已經話你知,雖然GOOGL係科企,甚至有人覺得係最geek最nerd嘅科企,今日FAAMG之一,地球上第三大企業,1.6萬億市值。但,居然上市至今回報,要跑輸呢間low tech Pizza公司
上集我差不多只講一樣嘢:return vs total return.股價升幅同總回報。你心諗唔係一樣?哦,仲有派息,但派得幾多?一年半年唔多,但積埋17年就好係嘢。如果你將啲股息再reinvest 落去隻股票,碌雪球利叠利,分別仲大。
DPZ,只計股價升幅同派息(冇再投資),1蚊變34蚊。但dividend reinvestment呢?1蚊變65蚊!爭好遠!亦係因為咁先跑贏GOOGL
咁你話,咁啱因為DPZ升得多,息又派得好。唔好咁屈機。咁簡單啲,標普指數。由2006年4月計起(點解?因為我開始做分析員),計到今日,有幾大分別? 冇reinvest嘅,1蚊變4.3。幾好啦。但有嘅,1蚊變5.1。都真係爭一截的
上集就都係老生常談嘢,stay in market,日子有功,time is your friend。收到股息唔好使咗佢,或者唔好使晒佢,至少點都碌返少少入股市。
但除咗呢啲仲有乜啟示?梗有啦,就係下集講。
下集我整埋個Excel,比較返兩間公司。咁首先,你見到長線地,股價都真係大約跟盈利行。未必跟足晒,但天道酬勤,利潤不停升嘅,股價總係會跟上去。正如不停輸錢嘅,點都會跌。
然後睇下,GOOGL梗係高科技啦。Big Tech護城河極深,只有佢搶其他人(包括Pizza舖)生意,冇掉轉。唔通DPZ可以搶Big Tech 生意?頂多啲工程師叫幾個Pizza
睇數睇到的,GOOGL 純利率,盈利增長,甚至規模都大過DPZ好多。GOOGL年賺400億,DPZ賣Pizza一年5億已經係神級。
咁但,最Tricky嘅位,點解DPZ回報都係跑贏?頭先講咗Dividend reinvestment ,但仲有其他嘢。其中一樣就係估值。好粗略計,GOOGL 2015年已經100倍市盈率,高科技嘛,但而家得25倍咋!Multiple contraction,估值收縮。相反,DPZ畀人覺得冇增長,當年13倍市盈率,但而家去到30倍,Multiple Expansion.呢度一來一回,加埋股息再投資,就爭一大截了
根本本身就好高市盈率嘅,好難長期維持,亦好難再expand.可惜過去好多年都係增長股跑贏,啲友鍾意聽故事講顛覆,就好少有人理估值。今年就價值股全部回歸,迪士尼跑贏NetFlix,福士跑贏Tesla
但再講落去,根本DPZ同GOOGL都係神股,why not both?兩隻都幾十個開。咁亦話你知,你買中呢啲公司,你根本唔怕其他啲嘢total loss,我贏一隻可以輸十隻。一定係think big,好公司可以升到你唔信,但壞公司亦只能跌100%。
而你亂咁止蝕止賺嘅,注定成唔到大事。根本你DPZ而家睇天下無敵,但2006年盈利已經倒退,難免畀人覺得係谷到最靚上市後就收皮。2007 2008生意更加重災區。搞到2012,搞利先返返2005水平。幾多年呀?7年。你有冇咁嘅耐性?把口而家事後梗係羨慕人買到10倍股,但個Q個隻嘢一個月唔升已經問乜事啦。一季盈利唔得就話公司唔掂要沽貨啦。更唔好講,一個金融海嘯打埋嚟,兩隻都一年跌六成啦。
然後講好老土嘅嘢,複利的威利,保險L成日同你講。你見呢啲咩股王,都係講緊一年 廿幾%回報,已經係17年升幾十倍。一來你見到Time is your friend,日子有功。但一年20%易唔易?梗係難啦!極難呀!所以唔該你調整返你啲期望,唔好講埋啲「我唔貪心希望年年穩定20%回報就得」。呢個世界年年穩定嘅回報,係美債,1.5%.或者iBond可以有兩三厘(但買唔得多)。同樣地,出面嗰啲友同你講「目標一年三四成回報」,你信我嘅我就祝君好運。不過人就係鍾意聽大話,自欺欺人。
仲有17年嚟,GOOGL CAGR25%,1蚊變44蚊。DPZ CAGR 22%,1蚊變30蚊。見唔見到爭幾咁遠?呢啲亦係複利的威力,你個回報一年爭少少,拉長咗就爭好遠。
CAGR爭幾個%,十幾年就拉開好多。做人都係。以前都寫過,順境時我跑贏你少少,逆境時我冇你咁大鑊,幾個周期就拉開晒了。
最後留意,GOOGL「頭尾」純利升咗27.5倍,但每股盈利只係升23倍。點解?因為股數多咗。留意唔係上市時,係後來再發的新股。因乜?獎勵啲工程師啦,老細啦,仲有收購。所以你見股數都多咗30%,雖然近年已經係縮緊,因為做回購。相反,DPZ呢?股數差不多年年縮,而家係當年嘅六成左右。所以你見到,純利4.5倍,但每股盈利差不多8倍—而影響股價嘅,係後者。
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return loss影響 在 貓的成長美股異想世界 Facebook 的最讚貼文
🌻高速成長股的跌幅
這幾年, 越來越多人投資成長股, 尤其是高速成長股, 是一件很好的事情. 但很多投資人應該只看到高速成長股帶來的漲幅, 卻沒看到另一面.
一位分析師做的研究: 除了dot.com那時候的大跌, 其他時候, 高速成長軟體股的跌幅平均是25-27%.
下圖是截至05/17的跌幅(未包括SPAC). 是-37%.
成長股很受到投資人的青睞, 也很容易變成動能股. 當動能失去的時候, 就像重力加速度一樣, 跌速跟跌幅會很快很大.
投資成長股, 尤其是高速成長股, 對我來說, 要不就是佛系, 要不就是練盤感&操作. 可以看適合自己的方法&投資的目標是甚麼(而其實成長股經過去年的大漲幅, 大跌前的估值也已經很高了).
一位財富已自由的財經名嘴的名言:
"Discipline trumps conviction." (紀律勝過信念)
可以跟這句放在一起看:
"I learned that you may be right, but if enough people believe you're wrong the markets can really hurt you." --BlackRock bond chief Rick Rieder
至於成長股還能不能買呢? 可以參考下面這兩段:
While tech stocks have taken the biggest hit from rising inflation concerns, some investors see the recent retreat as an opportunity to buy fast-growing companies.
“Within tech, there are still some companies that look very cheap,” said Jane Shoemake, client portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. “If you believe in the longer-term trends supporting these companies, you should be buying.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-18-2021-11621323328
🌻FTCH, FVRR, PINS, PYPL, ROKU電話會議內容已整理好. 可到部落格那邊去看: https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/
之前先錄了一段影片, 解釋我是怎麼做財報內容&電話會議內容整理的: https://youtu.be/vvkrs6CiWdw
🎯上次有提, 九月份會來做年報財報的導讀. 現在台灣的疫情那麼嚴重, 我有考慮在這個周末來進行, 這樣有興趣的讀者可以利用宅在家的時間來學習. Anyway. 如果決定提早做的話, 我週四會將訊息貼在這邊.
🌻關於市場
Markets are likely to be volatile until additional economic data provides a clearer picture, said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Advisors. “I don’t think we could know anything really about which way inflation is going to go until September, but the market is unable to wait that long.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-20-2021-11621496568
🌻關於cryptocurrency
“[Cryptocurrency] is no longer an asterisk for the general market,” Ms. Krosby said. “It seems like it’s becoming very much part of the general market, and questions whether or not the selloff in bitcoin is representative of concerns over risk-on risk-off over the larger market.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-05-20-2021-11621496568
🌻營運分析: 如何看一家公司在疫情後有沒有失去競爭力?
The bounceback was largely to be expected after a dismal comparable quarter last year, when stores had to close due to Covid-19 restrictions. A comparison to pre-pandemic numbers yields a more sober outlook: Measured against the same quarter in 2019, Kohl’s net sales declined 4.2%, while comparable sales at Macy’s fell 10.5%.
One positive surprise was a turn to profitability for the two department store giants; analysts polled by FactSet had expected a net loss from both. But that was partly thanks to factors outside of the retailers’ control: Port congestion has led to less inventory across the apparel industry, leading to more full-priced selling. Inventory declined 25% at Kohl’s compared with a year earlier and fell 14% at Macy’s.
Kohl’s shares fell 10% after it reported Thursday, and Macy’s is down around 5% since reporting earlier in the week. Yet they are both trading at prices higher than pre-pandemic levels.
That seems hard to justify. The truth is that department stores were losing customers before and during the pandemic, and will probably continue to do so after it. While Kohl’s and Macy’s sales remain below pre-pandemic levels, off-price and big-box retailers have seen their apparel sales increase. At TJX’s Marmaxx division, which houses T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, sales in the quarter ended May 1 were up 14.4% compared with the same period in 2019. Target’s apparel sales grew 29% over the comparable period.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/return-to-normal-not-good-enough-for-department-stores-11621530127
🌻通膨. The magic number 4.
Mackintosh 表示,經濟復甦提高通膨也有利股市,聯準會 (Fed) 在這個階段也很樂意忽略通膨,因為經濟成長正是政府想要的。但當通膨進一步上升,壓縮到股票報酬率時, 4% 通膨率將成為關鍵點。
據統計自 1957 年標普 500 指數創立以來,美國曾有 9 次通膨率高於 4%,這其中的 8 次,股市在 3 個月後下跌。只有 2005 年突破 4% 又隨即回落,因而未影響大盤。
https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/4647748
WSJ原文在此:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflations-magic-number-is-four-11621355006
🌻附上本周發表財報的公司一覽表(在下方留言處)
🌻專門介紹美國豪宅的YouTuber。宅在家沒事可以欣賞一下。
https://m.youtube.com/user/enesyilmazer
Pictures: from earningswhispers.com; It's always a pleasant surprise when animal friends visited. This time, three in a low.
一次有三隻鹿來拜訪.
影片: https://youtu.be/TxLTGe9IdWA