關於 peso rate ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

วิกฤติอาร์เจนตินา ที่รัฐบาลผิดนัดชำระหนี้ /โดย ลงทุนแมน
พันธบัตรรัฐบาลดูเหมือนเป็นสินทรัพย์ที่ปราศจากความเสี่ยง (Risk-free asset)
แต่ในตอนนี้มีอยู่ประเทศหนึ่ง ที่รัฐบาลไม่สามารถหาเงินมาชำระหนี้ได้
ประเทศนั้นชื่อ อาร์เจนตินา
เรื่องนี้มีที่มาเป็นอย่างไร...
Continue ReadingThe Argentina crisis that the government defaults to pay debt / invest manly.
Government bonds seem like risk free assets (Risk-free asset)
But now there is one country where the government can't afford to pay the debt.
That country is Argentina
How does this come to be?
Investing man will tell you about it.
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If you want to know the way of the world economy, you need to understand
World economy 1,000 years. 6th typing.
Order at (get 10 % discount from the cover price of 350 baht)
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Year of July. Prof. 2010 Argentina's public debt is at 4.9 trillion baht.
Or about 44 % of GDP

Year of July. Prof. 2019 Argentina's public debt is at 11 trillion baht.
Or about 93 % of GDP

Increasing public debt is creating a heavy problem for Argentina now called Argentina the sick people of South America.

Some may not know that once in the early 20th century, Argentina was one of the world's most wealthy countries.

Because Argentina's farming industry is growing greatly from lands, fertile and climate suitable for agriculture sector.

This story is made in July. B.E. 1913 Argentina is addicted to 1 of the 10 countries with the world's highest population income.

However, time has passed 106 years
In the year. B.E. 2019 Argentina's per capita income falls to 66 of the world.

The beginning of economic fragility of a country is born from 2 main causes.

1. Political unrest, which comes from the Revolution of the military and corruption of cuddle Politicians.

2. Policy implementation of many leaders in the past who wanted to create a nationalist and bring in printing and budget spending, large amounts of balance.

When things are like this, it causes financial burden to the country.

Argentina has experienced various problems like a strong patient.

So how does this affect Argentina?

Year of July. Prof. 2019 The country's inflation rate is at 54 % highest in almost 30 years.
And the 5th highest in the world

During the year of July B.E. 2009-2019 Argentina has a budget deficit every year, making Argentina one of the world's longest budgeted countries.

The government's debt burden is increasingly composed to high-level inflation. This is why the Argentine peso goes down quickly.

If we exchanged $ 1 for Argentina pesos
Year of July. B.E. 2009 will exchange for 3.8 Argentina pesos
Year of July. B.E. 2019 will exchange for 60 Argentina pesos

The country's money is almost 1,480 % weaker. Many people may think that one side of peso money should help the export sector of the country, but it doesn't seem like much. Because today, the export sector is just 14 % of the country's exports. GDP value only

Peso's weakening of money makes the central bank have to use the reserve to keep the money from severely weakening.

But this has reduced the central bank reserve substantially from 2.1 trillion baht in July. B.E. 2018
Only 1.2 trillion baht left now.

Argentina needs help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) worth over 1.8 trillion baht, which is the most critical country's subsidy in IMF history.

However, another bad joke is
Currently, the public debt burden that the Argentina government has is 80 % in foreign debt and most are in the picture of US dollars.

The weakness of Argentina peso compared to US dollars makes the country's debt increase because more Argentina peso is required to pay the same debt.

We can imagine that 10 years ago
If we owe $ 1
We will spend just 3.8 Argentina pesos to exchange $ 1 to pay back debt.

But come today, we're spending 60 Argentina pesos to exchange $ 1 to pay back debt.

This kind of thing has happened to Thailand in July. Prof. 1997 Many people remember that we need to spend 2 times more money to pay the same debt.

But Argentina is now not 2 times more debt, but ten times more debt..

The Argentina government currently has foreign debt for over 2 trillion baht and recently, the Argentina government has just defaulted to pay the debt (Default). Pay interest in stock loan amounts of over 16,000 million baht.

The government has previously negotiated restructuring debt with creditors to pay down interest and delay debt repayment, but it is rejected by creditors. Now the Argentine government needs to revisit the new offer to negotiate with creditors again.

Which now doesn't know what the final conclusion of this story will be.
But for sure, if the Argentina government can't afford to pay debt to the creditors, the story may be worse than we see now.

While Argentina's debts pay interest for the 9th Argentina in country history after Argentina has experienced total 8 moratorium defaults since Spain independence in July. Prof. 1816 or 204 years ago

This may be a lesson for many countries to learn things from countries that have experienced problems in order to avoid and not follow those countries.

Thailand now seems far from being Argentina
But be careful because everything, if careless, it can always happen..
╔═══════════╗
If you want to know the way of the world economy, you need to understand
World economy 1,000 years. 6th typing.
Order at (get 10 % discount from the cover price of 350 baht)
Lazada: https://www.lazada.co.th/products/1000-i714570154-s1368712682.html
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References
-https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/government-debt-to-gdp
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/316929/national-debt-of-argentina-in-relation-to-gross-domestic-product-gdp/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/316750/inflation-rate-in-argentina/
-https://www.reuters.com/article/us-argentina-economy/argentinas-economic-crisis-explained-in-five-charts-idUSKCN1LD1S7
-https://www.ft.com/content/e6f5c436-37d2-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
-https://www.statista.com/statistics/316916/argentinas-budget-balance-in-relation-to-gdp/
-https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49429361
-https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/argentinas-government-appears-set-to-default-citing-covid-19-pandemic.html
-https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/22/argentina-set-for-default-as-bondholders-reject-new-terms
-https://www.dw.com/en/argentina-in-default-for-second-time-this-century/a-53542302Translated

▍10/24 今日經濟學家: Robert Mundell
Robert Mundell於1932年10月24日出身在加拿大，由於他在國際經濟學有著卓越的貢獻，讓Mundell在1999年獲頒諾貝爾經濟學獎，表彰他的研究在不同的匯率之下的貨幣及財政政策分析(monetary and fiscal policy under different exchange rate regimes)和最適貨幣區分析(optimum currency areas)，這些理論促使歐元在90年代成功發行。另外著名的Mundell-Fleming model和Impossible trinity是總體和國際金融的經典教材，其理論標示著自由的資本進出(Free capital mobility)、固定匯率(Fixed exchange rate)、獨立的貨幣政策(Monetary autonomy)是無法三者同時並存，在歷次金融危機如90年代的墨西哥披索(Peso)危機、亞洲金融危機皆得到應證。

大學時Mundell就讀英屬哥倫比亞大學(University of British Columbia 簡稱UBC)，由於父親參與過二戰且當時正值韓戰爆發，使得Mundell一直對於國際事務和蘇聯議題十分關心，於是在UBC選擇主修經濟學和斯拉夫研究(Russian and Slavonic Studies)。1953年畢業後進入華盛頓大學(University of Washington)攻讀碩士，當時學校有許多年輕的學者，其中包括1993年的諾貝爾獎得主Douglass North, 在這些教授的教導之下，加深Mundell繼續攻讀經濟學的決心，之後他到MIT就讀博士班，寫論文期間有一年遠赴LSE接受James Meade(1977年諾貝爾獎得主)的指導，並且於1956年在MIT拿到“Industrial Economics”博士。畢業後在多所學校任教，其中包括芝加哥大學(1965-72), 哥倫比亞大學(1974迄今)，指導的著名學生包括Rudi Dornbusch, Carmen Reinhart

除了在經濟學研究有所成就外，Mundell也是位畫家，關於風景和肖像的畫作多達200多幅。另外他在義大利擁有一座13世紀的古堡，Mundell表示除了可以拿來自住和辦研討會探討國際金融政策，同時也是投資有抗通膨的功能。

參考資料: Vane, H. R., & Mulhearn, C. (2006). Interview with Robert A. Mundell. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20(4), 89-110.
http://www.nobelprize.org/…/laureat…/1999/mundell-facts.html

衍生閱讀:
Two out of three ain’t bad (Economist)
http://www.economist.com/…/21705672-fixed-exchange-rate-mon…

Day 2: Seminar Dunia Pelaburan Saham sesi terakhir Kuala Lumpur 2014 bersama Dato' Dr Nazri Khan, First Vice President Affin Hwang Capital & President of MATA.

"Trading is For Living"....

[MY FORECAST NEW YEAR 2015]

Alhamdulillah. Looking forward to my first political seminar along with Malaysian respectable politicians on 2015 Economic & Stock Market Outlook.

All friends invited to attend. 27th January, Sunway Resort Hotel.

My humble FORECAST in 2015 :

2015 will see USA Federal Reserve unwind its huge USD3 trillion financial stimulus and start to hike interest rates, first time in eight years.

2015 will see Bank Of Japan and European Central Bank to start pumping in USD1 trillion yen and Euro 1 trillion to boost their flagging economies.

2015 will see Malaysia chairing ASEAN and the launch of Asean Economic Community and ASEAN stock exchange by October 2015.

2015 will see the start of mega bank merger in Malaysia. Expect the biggest Malaysian Bank to be born with more than RM100 billion market cap next year.

2015 will see Malaysia finally implement Good Service Tax at 6% (lowest in ASEAN) after the long planning since 1992, Mahathir Prime Minister and Anwar Ibrahim, Finance Minister era. Malaysia are the third last ASEAN countries to implement GST.

2015 will see more than 10 mega IPO in Bursa Malaysia which includes 1MDB, Malakoff, Weststar, Iskandar Waterfront, Al Medini, Khazanah Theme Park, Ekuinas Ilmu, Sunway Construction, Sime Auto and Ecoworld International.

2014 will be officially Bursa Malaysia fourth WORST year in history, after 2008, 1997 and 1994. Year to date, Bursa has dipped 226 points or 11.8% ever since it
touched the highest record on the 8th July 2014.

2014 will be the first Bursa losing year after five straight profitable years since 2008. Not bad, given that Bursa has gained a whopping 1095 points or 135% since 28th October 2008 bottom.

2014 Bursa worst sectors are plantation and oil gas while the best Bursa sectors are technology and construction. All four sectors should be a good buy next year especially technology stocks if USA solid economy continue.

2015 should see Bursa renew momentum and continue the uptrend driven by the return of foreign inflows. As at today, foreign investors hold 45% of Malaysian Bonds and 23% of Malaysian equities, among the lowest in history.

2015 hottest economic issues will be falling ringgit, falling oil, rising inflation, rising interest rates, rising household debt, illicit money outflow and New Economic Model of Malaysian 11th Economic Plan.

2015 hottest political issues will be 1MDB Berhad, Anwar Sodomy Verdict, Seditious Act, Hudud Row, Pakatan Solidarity, Felda Group, Malaysia Airlines Berhad and UMNO New Political Model. Expect to see the rise of Malaysian political temperature and more confrontation Malay liberals vs Malay extremes.

2015 will see oil even cheaper than water. Within five months, oil price has crashed from USD110 to USD55 per barrel. It now costs RM1 to buy a litre of oil, compare
to water which is RM2 a litre. Ironically, RON 95 and Milo Tarik have not fallen as much.

2015 will see more currencies volatility. Forex traders are set to return. Top Five worst currencies in 2014 are Russian Rouble, Chilean Peso, Argentina Peso, Colombian Peso and Ukraine Hryvnia which have tumbled more than 20%. Ringgit which is already down 12% is yet to join the fray. Russia has shockingly raised its key interest rate to 17% from 10% after the collapse of the rouble currency.

2015 will see the return of Avian Influenze H5. Japanese officials slaughtered 4,000 chickens after confirming the H5 strain of bird flu at a poultry farm in the
southwest of the country. More widespread H5 will push Malaysian healthcare and glove stocks higher.

2015 will see the return of El Nino. Australian Weather Bureau confirmed 70% probabilities of El Nino emerging by February 2015 in the Pacific Ocean. This should be supportive of global aggro commodities including Malaysian Palm Oil.

2015 biggest DANGER to Global Stock Market will be GREECE. Signs suggest Greece may leave European Union if the left radicals, Syriza Party win the Greece general election this month. If this materialize, expect Greece exit to tear off Euro.

My overall take : 2015 will be the Best Stock Picking year for all investors and traders, despite higher Malaysian political temperature and rising interest rate, given the solid USA economy, cheaper Bursa stocks, super attractive risk-reward and huge selling seen over the last six month.

~ Nazri Khan, Affin Hwang Investment Bank.

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