關於 it's been a long time since i last saw you ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

There’s rhythm in writing! 🎶

這個禮拜Presentality的Andrew來分享英文寫作的節奏!

★★★★★★★★★★★★

我的工作需要看非常多的英文。

其中有英文母語的人寫的，也有非母語的人寫的。最近，我注意到一個兩者之間很明顯的差別。這個差別很少有人提到，因為它無關文法正確，也不是有學問的用語，或是文雅的詞彙。

是句子的長短。

Well，更正確的來說，是長句跟短句的交錯。我發現，非母語人士寫的英文句子，不但比英文母語的人寫的長，而且是大部分句子都很長。

母語的人，尤其是很會寫的人，則是會把長句跟短句混合搭配。
那又怎樣？

★★★★★★★★★★★★

你可能會說 ok，以英文為母語的人比較會用短的句子，那又怎樣？句子的長短，跟我寫作的好壞，有關嗎？

關係可大了。

就像音樂，或是影片，文字也是「內容」。只要是「內容」，就有它的節奏。你可以想像一首曲子，從頭到尾都是很長的音，而且一點變化都沒有嗎？或是一部很長的影片，從頭到尾都是很長的畫面，而且一點節奏的變化都沒有嗎？

Well actually，你應該可以想像，這些就是要幫助我們睡眠的。
如果你不想要你的讀者覺得無聊或甚至睡著，我建議適度變換你文字的節奏。

但我們先看案例。

我拿一篇台灣人寫的文，跟另一篇美國人寫的，來做比較：把每個句子都分拆成不同的段落，句子的長短就一目了然了。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

但我們先看案例。

我拿一篇台灣人寫的文，跟另一篇美國人寫的，來做比較：把每個句子都分拆成不同的段落，句子的長短就一目了然了。

📌 台灣案例：Taipei Times Opinion

1. The TAIEX last month rose above 17,000 points as rallies in steel, shipping and some non-tech stocks offset a weakness in semiconductor and electronics stocks.

2. While news about a cluster of local COVID-19 infections connected with China Airlines cargo pilots and a hotel in Taoyuan fueled selling pressure early this month and pushed the local stock market into consolidation mode, the daily market turnover in the first two trading sessions of this month hit fresh highs.

3. Moreover, Taiwan’s stock trading volume last month began to surpass that of Hong Kong for the first time in 15 years, which was beyond most market participants’ expectations.

4. Taiwan’s daily market turnover exceeding Hong Kong’s might gradually become a new normal from this year, and there are good reasons for this.

5. First, Hong Kong’s stock market has lost its appeal to foreign investors since China last year imposed national security legislation on the territory, triggering a potential flight of capital and talent.

6. Second, many wealthy Taiwanese tend to park their overseas funds in Hong Kong, China, Singapore, Switzerland and the US, but government statistics showed that more than 80 percent of funds repatriated by wealthy individuals last year were from Hong Kong, as they saw the political situation in the territory worsen after its self-governance, human rights and freedom of speech were further suppressed.

7. Third, China’s new NASDAQ-style stock board — the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s STAR board — has emerged as a fast-growing capital markets center for Chinese companies at a time when rising China-US tensions have triggered concerns about their prospects of listing in New York, posing a growing challenge to the Hong Kong stock exchange.

8. On the other hand, Taiwan’s economic fundamentals, the central bank’s adoption of extraordinary monetary easing and the government’s fiscal policies have fueled continued rallies in the nation’s stock market since last year.

9. It might be too early to tell how long the consolidation trend might last, as a resurgent COVID-19 outbreak is coloring the global economic outlook, but some insight can be drawn from the stock market:

10. Taiwan’s GDP grew a larger-than-expected 8.16 percent in the first quarter, as exports and private investment remained healthy.

都是一堆很長的句子對不對？我們來看美國人寫的句子，也是一個主流媒體的 opinion 文。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 美國案例：New York Times Opinion

1. I miss torturing Liz Cheney.

2. But it must be said that the petite blonde from Wyoming suddenly seems like a Valkyrie amid halflings.

3. She is willing to sacrifice her leadership post — and risk her political career — to continue calling out Donald Trump’s Big Lie.

4. She has decided that, if the price of her job is being as unctuous to Trump as Kevin McCarthy is, it isn’t worth it, because McCarthy is totally disgracing himself.

5. It has been a dizzying fall for the scion of one of the most powerful political families in the land, a conservative chip off the old block who was once talked about as a comer, someone who could be the first woman president.

6. How naïve I was to think that Republicans would be eager to change the channel after Trump cost them the Senate and the White House and unleashed a mob on them.

7. I thought the Donald would evaporate in a poof of orange smoke, ending a supremely screwed-up period of history.

8. But the loudest mouth is not shutting up.

9. And Republicans continue to listen, clinging to the idea that the dinosaur is the future.

10. “We can’t grow without him,” Lindsey Graham said.

📌 Note: 即使是比較長的句子，這位作者也會用標點符號拆散它：She is willing to sacrifice her leadership post — and risk her political career — to continue calling out Donald Trump’s Big Lie. 這就好比用句點一樣，讓我們讀起來有點停頓休息的時間。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 注意到了嗎？

台灣人寫的英文，句子都偏長，而且長度都差不多。
美國人寫的就不一樣了：一個只有五個字的句子開頭，然後一堆稍微長一點的句子，然後再來一串短句。

你可能懷疑我故意挑選很極端了例子出來，而且幹嘛專門打台灣人呢？

所以想到這裡，我從我的書架上，隨便挑了兩本跟科技有關的書出來。左邊的，是美國人，矽谷知名投資人 Peter Thiel。右邊的是德國人，但注意了，是一個英文非常好的德國人。他不但是世界經濟論壇的創辦人，研究所也是在哈佛大學唸的。

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 兩本書 Introduction 是怎麼寫的？

Klaus Schwab (德國)：

Of the many diverse and fascinating challenges we face today, the most intense and important is how to understand and shape the new technology revolution, which entails nothing less than a transformation of humankind.

We are at the beginning of a revolution that is fundamentally changing the way we live, work, and relate to one another.
In its scale, scope and complexity, what I consider to be the fourth industrial revolution is unlike anything humankind has experienced before.

Peter Thiel (美國)：

Whenever I interview someone for a job, I like to ask this question: "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"

The question sounds easy because it's straightforward.
Actually, it's very hard to answer.

It's intellectually difficult because the knowledge that everyone is taught in school is by definition agreed upon.

See the difference?

★★★★★★★★★★★★

📌 如何變換節奏呢？

需要Andrew的完整分享請留言「There’s rhythm in writing~」。

Follow Presentality for more!
https://www.facebook.com/presentality

ผมไม่ได้ไปร่วมชุมนุมในวันที่ 14-15 ตุลาคม ที่ผ่านมา เพราะก่อนหน้านี้ผมไปชุมนุมบ่อย และที่บ้านก็ทัดทานเอาไว้หลายครั้งว่าอย่าไป อย่าทำให้ตัวเองและครอบครัวเดือดร้อน
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แต่การไม่ได้ไปสองวันที่ผ่านทำให้ผมรู้สึกเหมือนมีชะนักติดอยู่ในใจ มันเหมือนเวลาเราดูหนังสงคราม แล้วเพื่อนทุกคนหยิบดาบจับปืนไปรบกันหมด เหลือแต่เราที่ไปไม่ได้ ...จะด้วยเหตุผลอะไรก็แล้วแต่...มันทำให้ผมรู้สึกผิดมาก
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พอรู้ว่าจะมีการชุมนุมวันนี้อีกวัน ผมเลยคิดว่า เออ...เราอยากไป...อยากชดเชยสิ่งที่เพื่อน ๆ ทำไว้เมื่อสองว...
Continue ReadingI didn't go to the congregation on October 14-15th, since I went to gather more often and at home, I have decided not to go. Don't bother myself and family.
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But not going to the last two days makes me feel like I have a chance to be stuck in my mind. It's like when we watch a war movie and all friends pick up swords and fighters. There are only reasons we can't go... It makes me feel so guilty.
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When I knew there would be another gathering today, I thought, um, we wanted to go... I wanted to make up for what friends did two days ago.
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I drove through Chidlom station from 3 pm. I saw the police set up a police station, messing up and investigating from many directions. I saw that I was taking control of all the rules from 2 pm. I was still talking to friends. Today, I should be Moob. I'm ′′ pouring Let me come to watch.
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After stirring until Siam, around 4 o'clock, eating and working. Waiting for news about how we are going to do it. Mob announces really postponed. Made an appointment at 5 o'clock, but moved to close to Pathumwan. ...
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I walked from Paracetamol to the middle of the intersection with Kerry, sound, and the speaker. And the people stood down. But it wasn't like two days ago. From the angle where I stood from the stereo for 20 Meters. People are watching from the corner. Very few. (Let's see the picture behind the side where there are many people. It's the road in front of Bunchak
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Standing to listen to the speech. The atmosphere is normal. The first time, it seems to be a smooth talk. But there is a sound. There is a sound in the moment that ′′ go out ′′ from the side of the Suphai field. I guess I'm going to chase the agent. I'm trying to break through, normally someone gives me free drinking water. I accept it without knowing it will save my life later....
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It's raining while it's raining. I'm standing in the rain and working in the middle of the Mop (imitation of Northern Netanya). Sister, the lady pokes me, ′′ Do you want a rain coat? I bought it for those who don't have it. ′′ Which I also accept. Thank you very much.
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Talking to his sister, standing behind me, makes me look at the back road (in front of paragon). I see the emergency light far away..... Do you think it's an emergency vehicle? I don't know how to feel... so I went to see it.
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I walked closer to the emergency light in front of Paragon. I saw a man standing in front of the board, turning to the Ratchadraphaphat crossroads. And I found a lot of police, standing in front of the board in the formation, preparing to invade the back. There was a majestic water in the back. With a megaphone order all the time.
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I was shocked, ran back to the spot where I was standing assembly and shouted, ′′ The water car comes! The water car came!" The people who listened for the first time. Most of them were shocked. I couldn't do anything right. I passed about 5 seconds until I started to move. It's broken now.
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The biggest dharma puzzle in my life today is when I came running back to tell the news and thought it's okay. I sent the news and someone found out.... and I ran back to the front line of the point.... Why did I run.....
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While going back, I heard a megaphone. ′′ Give the demonstrators 3 minutes to leave the area
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Come back this time, vertical. Let's get the demolition like a shield. Prepare to get water from the water car. Sparta warrior in the movie 300 with a little ironing. There is a noise from the telephone. Counting down. My heart is beating like a battlefield.
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10.... Damn. What do I do?
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9.... They will be positive.
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8.... Damn went to push the fence with him.
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7.... I shouldn't be okay. You won't be healthy. You
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6.... Let's take a video!
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Taken my mobile phone camera and took it on the roadside. Not on the road.
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3... 2... 1 Police move in vs Demonstrators
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First round of sprinklers - second round. Federal station, no problem. The demonstrators are shouting. Happy to shoot around three times. Straightly hit the demonstrators. I watched the time they defeated the riot in the abroad. The water pressure was very high. I got the body blown away.
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Demonstrators still stand. Water car. Change water color. Injection color to blue. Shooting at the demonstrators in mind. I wonder why they changed colors?.... But in the middle of the road, they were pushed for minutes. The situation is very disturbing. It seems like they saw the person. Snatch the shield from the police and use it to push the police.
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A while back, some demonstrators joined the metal fence to the forefront. But it wasn't much, but it wasn't much. The demonstrators retreated and broke down from where I was standing for a while. The car was injected with the footprint. Made the front of me crack. I was in the second row. I took a water car and shot it. Now it's in my head. Face in my mouth.
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I got water for 2-3 seconds. I feel pain in my eyes and face. Someone said that it's mixed with tear gas. So I took the water bottle that they gave away when I listened to it. I washed my face but I had less oil because I ate and divided other people. So I escaped into Siam. There was a person standing and watching in Siam. It was about 20 people from the point of the vagina. There was a woman shouting ′′ There was water in the water. If anybody got gas, I could wash my face
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I have a sister. The old one was around the corner and said that ′′ you need to wash it off, you have been left before. It will have long term consequences
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I tried to wash as much as I could and ran out of the area. Keep my life in the next battle. We will fight for a long time.
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Ps. Found out later that blue is injected to identify the demonstrators to easily catch. Clear water is a chemical mix of eye pain.Translated

Hi guys! I know it's been a long while since my last vlog. I consolidated all that happened in the months of Jan, Feb & March (first quarter of the year)!
Time has flown by so quickly!!!!

At the beginning of 2019, we were still clueless about the gender of our baby.
I've recently revealed in another video that I will be expecting a little baby boy and I cannot be more excited for him to enter into this world!

The second trimester has been quite a breeze for me and I have now entered my third trimester. As you can tell, work has evidently taken the front seat and we have been putting off all the necessary preparations. We started looking out for the bigger items (like main furniture) in our baby's nursery, but we still haven't had all the pieces of the jig-saw put together yet.

I will definitely share with you our progress along the way, we have barely 2 months to go to get our sh*t together! Stay tuned for more in another upcoming vlog (ft. all that went on in the month of April)! I promise you it's going to be eventful!

INSTAGRAM | http://instagram.com/melissackoh
BLOG | http://www.melissackoh.com
FACEBOOK | https://www.facebook.com/melissackoh/

✐ C O N T A C T
⇢ contact@melissacelestinekoh.com

L O C A T I O N
⇢ Singapore

E Q U I P M E N T
⇢ iPhone & Fujifilm XT30, Sony A7II

M U S I C
⇢ http://www.epidemicsound.com/

A.I. and the 76ers went home losers again.

"It's going to have to be one of the best games ever from us in order to win," Allen Iverson said.

They sure didn't play one against Detroit.

Rodney Stuckey scored 27 points and hit the winner with 8.7 seconds left to lead the injury-plagued Pistons to a 90-86 win over Philadelphia on Wednesday night, the 76ers' 11th straight loss.

New Jersey and Minnesota are the only teams with worse records than the Sixers. The Sixers haven't won since Nov. 18 vs. Charlotte and they've lost by five or less points six times during the skid.

Stuckey had the ball stripped by Andre Iguodala, but he grabbed the loose ball and tossed it in for the go-ahead basket with 1 second left on the shot clock.

Iguodala went for the win, but his open 3-point attempt was no good. He scored 18 points.

Pistons coach John Kuester said Stuckey was the right player to take the shot.

"No question I want the ball in his hands," he said. "You saw a lot of growth in a young man. I've been telling people about how good he can be. He can be one of the best guards in the league and he showed it tonight."

Iverson, once the best guard in the league, scored 11 points in his second game with the Sixers. He hit the tying jumper with 1:06 left that made it 86-all.

Iverson is 0-5 this season -- three losses with Memphis; two with the 76ers. Iverson missed seven of 10 shots from the floor and had three assists.

"It's going to get better," Iverson said. "This is one of these times when you find out what type of character you have as men."

The Pistons won without their top three stars. Guard Ben Gordon sat out with a sprained left ankle, and they had been playing without Richard Hamilton (ankle) and Tayshaun Prince (back).

"Without three of our best players to get a win on the road like this is always a good thing. It will help build confidence," Pistons center Kwame Brown said.

Stuckey and Jonas Jerebko were sensational in the fourth quarter and rallied against a struggling Sixers team looking for a break.

Jerebko made all three baskets in the fourth quarter -- and all three were clutch. He sank Detroit's first 3 of the game after seven misses that pulled the Pistons within one; another jumper that kept the deficit at one; and a 15-footer that gave them an 84-82 lead.

Iverson, who played 33 minutes as he tries to work his way into game shape, tied it for his first big shot in his second stint with the Sixers.

The Sixers blew a prime shot at going ahead when they missed two easy looks at the basket, the second one a tip by Samuel Dalembert that fell short.

That set the scene for Stuckey to come through. Stuckey's emergence was a big reason why the Pistons felt they could trade Chauncey Billups to Denver for Iverson last season.

Stuckey went up for the shot, but Iguodala was in his face to knock the ball free. Stuckey pounced on the loose ball and tossed up a little fade that went through for the winner.

Iverson deferred to Iguodala on the final shot. No good and the Sixers slumped home losers again.

"We got everything that we wanted on that last play and more," Iverson said. "The shot just didn't go in. I'll take that same shot every time. He had a good look."

The Sixers were counting on Iverson's marquee name to serve as a box office. They drew 20,000-plus in his homecoming Monday night, but attendance plummeted to 12,136 against the Pistons. That's just a tick more than the 11,965 they averaged in their first eight home games.

Iverson blocked the first shot of the game, stripped Ben Wallace of the ball at the top of the key that led to a Sixers basket, and intercepted a pass as he was falling out of bounds during a frantic first quarter.

He's still looking to get his legs under him after long stretches of inactivity as a non-factor until the fourth.

Iverson shed no tears nor did he exchange emotional hugs in his first game against the Pistons. He complained last season once the Pistons made him a reserve and eventually had his season cut short because of a back injury.

He did not play in the postseason and the Pistons let his $20-plus million contract expire.

Jerebko finished with 17 points, Jason Maxiell had 12 and Wallace grabbed 12 rebounds.

Dalembert had 17 points and 11 rebounds for the Sixers and Brand scored 17 points.