關於 capital structure ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

［8號仔嘅嘢］Well．仲係蝕錢嘅。有冇賺錢嘅一日？怕且有。但反正你都不能單獨買，買8號仔連Viu送埋 Now送埋CSL 網上痕 畀你。EBITDA都輸錢，但啲折舊 利息 先係戲肉嘛。

1. 又即係，當年Twins都好紅（年青讀者可以Google下），但你會唔會買英皇娛樂？同樣地，當年譚校長都好紅，你會唔會買StarEast 東方魅力？

2. （慎防有人唔知，膾炙人口嘅「一分鐘 贈我一分鐘」亦同呢檔嘢有關，魅力移動嘛！當年E Kids同EO2 都係呢檔東方魅力！）

TLDR：星期六Patreon詳講！ 但，真係講咗好多次，投資嘅嘢不可能咁樣直線思維，A then B then C，任何一步都可以出錯。業務受歡迎唔等於會高收入，高收入唔等於會賺，會賺錢唔等於股價會升，股價會升亦唔等於你要買。呢度每一步都有好多uncertainty．個撚個夠鬧Facebook啦夠話冇人用啦，結果人地股價點？

3. 係喎，廣告係大升呀，半年2億收入。不過公司半年183億收入。慢慢等。

4. 當然啦，蝕錢又唔等於公司會執笠。百幾億book，有排玩。況且，又唔係未蝕過，舊年都蝕錢架啦，今次蝕少咗添。蝕錢又唔等於執，執又唔等於會跌，完全係三回事。

5. 況且，冇事喎，派息仲有加！加2%都係加！邊個話蝕錢不能派息（你見好多人真係基本財務常識都冇的，仲要出嚟鬧你鳩up）？

6. 係喎，公司幾重債的，net debt to asset 57%．但邊個話重債唔派得息？況且，出面融資成本咁低。根本啱晒楷仔呢啲鍾意大手舉債嘅人（同樣地，Netflix Tesla都係咁）。8號仔而家要股本集資都有啲難度，亦唔集得多，梗係舉債。借錢回購都仲得呀（不過楷仔唔會咁益你），蘋果都係咁玩，你以為啲EPS 點解年年有得升？

7. 呢啲就M&M（唔係朱古力，係意大利佬，我到而家都唔識串個名），WACC，Optimal Capital Structure。冇錯係Corporate Finance 101，但首先好多人連呢啲都唔識，況且，有好多人讀咗亦都唔識用。

8. 拿，你睇返個圖，真係可以學啲仆街死財演咁講句「長期都係range trading」「股價受制於勞蘇通道4-5蚊」「建議可以現價買入，4蚊止蝕，5蚊止賺」.咪講笑，你見過去一年真係咁。

9. 星期六篇Patreon會詳講。反正好多人都唔知呢間公司做乜。

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一週年！月頭訂最抵！比別人知得多。subscribe now（https://bityl.co/4Y0h）。Ivan Patreon，港美市場評點，專題號外，每日一圖，好文推介。每星期6篇，月費100，已經1800人訂！ 畀年費仲有85折，20/40年費VIP 送本人著作一本。
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【國立臺灣大學 109學年度畢業典禮 貴賓致詞】
Commencement Address, National Taiwan University Commencement 2021

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巨大集團 羅祥安前執行長
Giant Group Former CEO Anthony Lo

管校長，羅副校長，各位貴賓，畢業生的家長跟朋友們，還有今天最重要的2021年臺大的畢業生，大家早安、大家好！

首先恭喜你們，今天從全世界最優秀大學之一的臺灣大學畢業了！
在過去幾年，在管校長，以「大學教改」和「國際化」的理念，率領全體師生的努力之下，臺大在全世界的能見度，和各項排名，都有顯著的進步，也讓身為校友的我們倍感光榮。

是不是我們大家一起鼓掌，給自己鼓勵一下好不好！

你們今天剛剛畢業，但是你們已經創造了臺大一項新的紀錄：第一次，沒有傳統畢業典禮的畢業生。這將是你們人生一個非常特別的回憶，也預表了你們未來將會有與眾不同的表現，和非凡的成就。

現在的世界，局勢是在東方跟西方的勢力，彼此對抗而動盪不安。而全世界的經濟活動，也因為科技的突破性創新，而受到很大的影響。不盡理想的、不盡公平的全球化，也將逐漸地變成 全球在地化。而COVID-19肆虐全球的結果，使得臺灣跟全世界，大家的生活型態、社會的結構、經濟活動的節奏都被打亂了，而必須要加以全面的整理跟重新的架構。這當然是一個危機，但是更是一個絕好的機會。所以，將你們迎面而來的，是無數的創新的機會，以及冒險卻令人興奮的全新挑戰。

因為臺灣，這是第一次跟全世界各個國家，同步的站在一個嶄新的共同起跑點上面。所以我要恭喜你們，你們躬逢其會，將要進入一個充滿希望、嶄新的時代。

我是1969年從臺大畢業的，所以我想今天就以我畢業之後的50多年，人生的一些學習和體會，來跟諸位分享，給諸位作個參考。

當我大學畢業的時候，我滿懷抱負，迫不及待地想要大展身手，我當時進入臺灣最大的貿易公司工作，但是我發現我所學的很多東西，只有一些國際貿易的實務跟英文有用，至於其他我所學習到的經營管理的很多知識，恐怕都要等到10年、20年之後，如果我有幸當上高級主管才能派上用場。

更諷刺的是，我是商學系畢業的，但是工作兩年後，我發現我真的不喜歡做商人，我也不喜歡做生意，我有興趣的是做事業。

後來，幸好我有聆聽我心裡面的微弱的聲音，決定踏進自行車業，放棄掉台北最好的貿易公司的金飯碗，而去參加在大甲一個只有38個人的小公司，來追求我的夢想。

那時候許多人認為我腦筋有問題，頭殼壞去，但現在回顧回來，我當時是做了人生一個非常好的決定。

創業的過程飽受艱辛，但是我也學到了很多寶貴的經驗：我首先學到的，是在做事之前，必須要先學做人。

人必須要誠信踏實，不能自私自利，而要利他共好。

要隨時心存感恩，尊重、關切別人。要熱愛這個世界，並且要了解到一個人的能力是有限的，而必須要去建立互信、互助的人際關係；要融入群體、要發揮團隊的精神。

在做事方面，一定要以正面積極的態度，認真努力去工作。 而且不要怕失敗，要勇於接受新的挑戰。因為如果有失敗了，那只是代表說你又更靠近成功一步了。要作中學，學中作，要虛心好奇的終身學習，開拓挑戰、追求卓越。

在這裡，我想要送給大家一個很特別的畢業禮物，就是兩個「成功的錦囊」。
第一個錦囊：不管你做什麼工作，不論你職務的高低，永遠都要站在顧客的立場，來為他們設想，還能做什麼，讓他們能夠得到更多的創新價值。

第二個錦囊：無論作什麼工作，不管你職務的高低，永遠都要站在經營者的角度來為公司設想，要做什麼，才能讓公司更健康，永續經營跟發展。

既使你們把我後面講的很多東西都忘記了，沒關係，但是這個畢業禮物你們一定要記得帶回去，因為這些「同理心」的兩個錦囊，在未來會給你們帶來意想不到的祝福！

其次我體會到，名跟利都是副產品。正產品是你成為什麼樣的人，成就什麼樣的事。當正產品是對的時候，名跟利都自然會來。

所以我鼓勵大家在找工作的時候，不要太計較開始的薪水和待遇。因為事實上，一個新人，在前面三年是很難有大的貢獻的，反過來只是公司發薪水來給你培訓而已。所以選擇一個有意義的行業，找一家你可以學習進步的好公司，這才是重要的。

第三，我學習到 知識不等於智慧。諸位都學有專精，有很多寶貴的知識，但這些知識必須要實際去做才能夠產生經驗，而累積的時候會有不同經驗的反省、學習、跟體會，尤其是從那些失敗的經 驗，才能夠漸漸地凝結成有用的智慧。
我的成長過程分成三段，開始我是一個「I」型的人，我擁有一些經營管理的基本的能力。後來因為工作的需要和我的好奇心，我漸漸地學習到技術開發、製造生產、品牌推廣、全球經營、以及行銷、服務等等寶貴的經驗，這樣漸漸地，我就形成一個「T」型的一個跨界的人才。但是到了我真正找到公司未來的使命跟方向，並且把它跟我的人生目標結合在一起，熱情的、積極去推動的時候，那時候我終於成為一個「十字架」型的一個領導者。

當公司發展得比較穩定之後，我就面臨要如何來替公司規劃願景、使命、定位，跟長期策略。在這個階段，我有一些新的體會：首先，你必須要能夠畫出一個「黃金正三角形」，正三角形是最穩定的，上面是戰略，中間是戰術，下面是戰鬥。先要有正確的戰略，才能衍伸出有效的戰術，再根據這個戰術去貫徹戰鬥的執行。換言之，戰略就是做對的事情，戰術就是對的方法，戰鬥就是用對的方法去把事情做對做好，並且不斷地去持續改善。

想要能夠思考出長期的戰略，就必須要有洞察力。

我很喜歡看地球儀，就是那種在一個架子上面，有一個可以轉動的地球模型。當你把地球轉動的時候，你看到上面每一個地方、每一個國家，它的地理位置、它的自然生態，以及你思考它的歷史的演變跟它的發展，這樣子你就能夠得出一個整體的，跟全方位的一個概念。

在思考長期戰略的時候，很不容易得出一個有突破性的一個創見，它的原因往往是因為「當局者迷」的關係。

所以當我考慮長期戰略的時候，我會把自己設想，好像從一個人造衛星上面，來觀看一個轉動的地球。以宇宙格局的高度，以全球視野的廣度，以歷史演進的長度，這樣子你就能夠以一個「旁觀者清」的姿態和角度，來正面、反面深入思考，這樣子你就可能得到一個突破性的一個解答。「世界的捷安特」跟「全球在地化」的品牌經營—這樣子的策略、願景就是這樣產生的。

另外一種洞察力，是如何推出給人們有創新價值的產品跟服務。這就要時時地站在人文跟科技的十字路口，仔細觀察它們的變化，然後活用科技的進步，為人文潛在的需求，適時地提供最佳的解決方案。捷安特的Cycling世界，就是用這種方法，不斷的推出創新價值的產品。

我們在經營上也有發展出一個特別的理念，那就是「不求第一，要作惟一」。全世界的人這麼多，但沒有兩個人的指紋是一樣的， 所以每一個人都是獨一無二、都是惟一的。可見當上帝造每一個人的時候，祂都有衪特別的計劃，而且也把成功所需要的能力跟要素，已經放在你的心中，等待你取用。所以每一個人不應該只是模仿別人，或者是按照別人的期望來生活，而應該要找出並且發揮自己的天賦，真正做自己，成為惟一，才能夠活出精采的生命。

企業也是一樣，不能隨波逐流，必須要找出什麼才是對的，什麼是合適你的，什麼才是有意義、對這個世界有貢獻的，這個才是惟一。當你精益求精，努力的想要成為惟一的時侯，你才能夠找到真正正確的目標，以及永續生存的價值。如果事事都想為第一，那麼你可能去追求很多不切實際的目標，而被你無法承受的巨大壓力所摧毀。或者，因為不擇手段，最後走上一些錯誤的道路。
在長期追求惟一的過程當中，我也得到兩個重要的體會：當你決心做一件對的事情，而且不屈不撓，勇敢堅持奮鬥的時候，全宇宙的力量都會起來幫助你。另外，把一件有意義的事情，用生命的力量把它作好，你就有可能改變這個世界！

我鼓勵你們，聆聽你們內心深處的微小的聲音，讓它引導你們，去尋找到你們的天賦，了解你們的命定。

不求第一，要作惟一。做你真正的自己，成為惟一。活出你精彩的生命，享受你幸福的人生！

很多人說，生長在臺灣的人，一輩子裡面一定要完成三項挑戰：登玉山、泳渡日月潭、還有騎自行車環島。我覺得這非常有道理。所以我建議大家在畢業以後，在去當兵、就業之前，不妨參加一個自行車環島的旅行團，用九天的時間，仔細的去體會、欣賞寶島臺灣的美好，用自行車的輪胎去親吻，這塊生你長你的美麗大地，就當作是送給你自己的一個畢業禮物吧！

那教授們跟家長們，可能會想說，啊！太可惜了，我畢業的時候沒有騎自行車環島，我現在已經五六十歲了。沒關係，你這個年紀正好來從事人生的壯遊。
我們臺大的校長－管校長，在今年的一月份，就勇敢的完成他夢寐以求的自行車環島的壯遊。我們給管爺一個掌聲好不好？

有人認為臺灣很小、沒有前途，真的是這樣嗎？世界經濟論壇每年都要把全世界的國家的實力做一個調查跟排名。讓我們來看一下臺灣的排名。全世界有235個國家，就面積來講，我們排名第137；就人口來講，第57；就經濟體來講，第21；就整體競爭力來講，排名第11；而創新力，臺灣排名第4。沒錯，臺灣的確不大，但是我們很強，我們可以很有前途！

可預見的，未來的世界將會成為美、歐、亞三區鼎力的這個新局面。就像三個圓圈，各自都以自己的利益為優先，並且彼此長期的競爭、對抗和抵制，但是同時又不得不相互的維持一些必要的連結。而在每一個圈裡面，它將持續的有很多劇烈的改變，就像一個暴風圈一樣。而這三個暴風圈連結在一起，就形成一個所謂完全風暴PERFECT STORM。

最近經濟學人雜誌，把臺灣當作封面，稱臺灣為地球上最危險的地方，但同時又是科技業最關鍵的地方。我個人倒認為，未來臺灣可能是處在一個最有利的地位，就在那三個暴風圈中間的那個颱風眼，也就是這三個圈圈彼此連結交會的中心點。這個地方看起來好像危險，其實是最安全、最有利、又是最關鍵的地方。

當三個暴風圈無可避免的，參與在一個長期的競爭、對抗、跟抵制－這樣一個零和的賽局裡面。那臺灣並不屬於任何一個圈圈，也不需要去參與這些競爭、對抗跟抵制。而可以去想說，我可以在這個關鍵的中心點，替這個世界來提供什麼樣子的創新價值的貢獻。

臺灣過去50年的努力累積了很多技術開發、製造管理、金融資本，社會資源，以及民主法治體制，這些稀有而寶貴的實力。而且如果以全世界作為舞台，那麼，能夠精通中文跟英文、能夠深切的了解東方西方的文化；有專業，又能跨界，謙卑而不自卑，自信而不自大的臺灣人，可能是全世界最優秀的人才。

未來無法被預測，但是可以被創造！30年前，有誰能夠預測到說臺灣會產生世界級的台積電跟捷安特？

台積電秉持著作惟一的理念，以全球晶圓代工的戰略，厚植實力，打造了優質高效的供應鏈，把臺灣變成一個科技島。以臺灣為核心，轉動引領全世界的半導體市場。

捷安特也秉持著作惟一的理念，以世界的捷安特，全球在地化的品牌戰略，帶領A-Team把臺灣變成全世界高級車的中心，又積極的推動Cycling的新文化，把臺灣發展成一個自行車島，以臺灣為核心，轉動引領全世界自行車的市場。
在這裡我也期許我們臺大，也能夠以作惟一這樣子的理念，轉動引領世界，變成全世界最優秀人才培養的最佳搖籃。

未來的50年，臺灣將迎來前所未有最大的機運！所以臺灣是不是應該要脫離過去單純競爭的心態，而來積極的謀求長期的未來生存之道，或者更進一步要問自己：臺灣可以為世界貢獻些什麼？臺灣不應該只是消極的「根留臺灣」，而應該更主動積極的「放眼全球、立足亞太、深根臺灣」。

臺灣過去的50年，那是一個非常艱辛跟特別的階段。很慶幸的，臺灣在那個階段裡面，是屬於勝利的這一組。

現在是應該到了必須要了解過去、深入現在、策劃未來，這個重要關鍵的時刻。要如何的以宇宙格局的高度、以全球視野的廣度、以及歷史演進的長度，衡外情，量己力，來為臺灣重新的定位，重新畫一個正確的戰略、戰術、戰鬥的黃金三角形。讓臺灣能夠真正發揮自己的長處，能夠打造創新價值的優勢，成為惟一、做Only One！要能夠創造一個更安全、更廣闊、更興盛－全新的藍海。臺灣必須要成為世界的好公民，繼續的為全世界做更多、更好的貢獻！
2021的畢業生們，在你們當中有未來國家的領導人、有全球企業的創造者、有在社會各行各業、方方面面的核心人才，所以臺灣未來50年的未來，就掌握在你們手中了。

最後，我想用一位著名科學家的名言來作結尾： Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving. 人生就像騎自行車，要保持你平衡最好的方法，就是繼續不斷地向前進。

你知道這是誰的名言嗎？ 沒錯，就是愛因斯坦！

2021的畢業生們，請你騎上你人生的自行車，勇敢的向前邁進，去開創你獨一無二、精彩無比的新生命跟未來。再一次，恭喜你們，並且祝福你們每一位，將來都能夠有健康、幸福、精彩跟有意義的人生！
謝謝！

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President Kuan, Executive Vice President Luo, Distinguished guests, family, friends, and most importantly, the graduating class of 2021, good morning!

First of all, congratulations! Today, you are graduating from one of the best universities in the world – National Taiwan University!

Over the last few years, President Kuan led the university forward with his vision of “educational reform” and internationalization”. Together with all the faculty and students, NTU has made significant progress in both ranking and global visibility, making us, alumni, extremely proud.

I think we deserve to give ourselves a round of applause!

You are the graduating class of 2021 and already, you have set a new record for NTU: For the first time, there will not be a traditional graduation ceremony. Let this be a very special memory of your life and a sign of the difference you will make in your future with extraordinary achievements.

The world is now in a volatile state where the East and the West are confronting each other. The world’s economic activities are also greatly affected by the breakthrough and innovations in technology. The less-than-ideal and less-than fair globalization will gradually become global localization. And as a result of COVID-19, Taiwan and the rest of the world’s lifestyle, social structure, and economy have been disrupted, and must be comprehensively reorganized and restructured. This is certainly a crisis, but in the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity. So, what lies before you are countless opportunities for innovation, and exciting new challenges.

Because, for the first time, Taiwan is standing with the rest of the world on a new race-track. Therefore, I would like to congratulate you, you are entering a new era full of hope.

I graduated from NTU in 1969. It has been more than 50 years and today, I would like to share some of my life experiences and insights.

When I graduated from college, I was filled with ambition. I couldn’t wait to make my mark. I joined one of the largest trading companies in Taiwan, where I quickly realized the only materials I learned in school that came in handy are a little bit of international trade practices and English. Much of what I had learned about business management would only be relevant 10 or 20 years down the road, if I was lucky enough to become a senior executive.

What’s even more ironic is that I graduated with a degree in business, but after working for 2 years, I realize I really don’t like being a businessman, and I don’t like doing business. What I am actually interested in is building an enterprise.

Fortunately, I chose to listen to the faint voice in my heart and decided to enter the bicycle industry. I left my position at the best trading company in Taipei to join a small company with only 38 employees in Dajia to pursue my dream.

At the time, many people thought I must’ve broken my skull and gone crazy, but looking back, I have made a great decision in my life.

The process of starting my own enterprise has been very difficult, but I have learned many valuable lessons. The first thing I learned is that before you can do anything else, you have to learn to be a person of good character.

We must be honest, down to earth, selfless, self-serving, and altruistic for the common good.

Be grateful, respectful and caring at all times. To love the world and to understand that one person’s ability is limited and that is necessary to build interpersonal relationships of mutual trust and support; to be part of a group and to play as a team.

When it comes to work, you must work hard with a positive attitude. And don’t be afraid to fail, be brave enough to accept new challenges. Because every time you fail, it just means you are one step closer to success. Learning is an active process. We learn by doing. We must stay open-minded and curious, aspiring to lifelong learning; to explore challenges and pursue excellence.

Here I would like to give everyone a special graduation gift, which are my two tips for success:
First, always put yourself in the customer’s shoes, regardless of what you’re doing or what kind of job title you hold. Think for them, think about what else you can do to create more value for the customers.

Second, regardless of what you’re doing or what kind of job title you hold, always think about the company from the proprietor’s point of view; what can we do to build a healthier company that’s sustainable.

Even if you are going to forget everything I say later, that’ ok. Just remember to take your graduation gift at heart, because these two tips on “empathy “are sure to bring you unexpected blessings in the future!

Later on, I realized that fame and money are merely byproducts. The real product is you, what kind of person you have become and what have you achieved. When the real product is identified, fame and money will come naturally.

So I encourage you, when you look for a job, don’t be too concerned about the starting salary and benefits. Because as a matter of fact, as a newcomer, it is very difficult to make a big contribution in the first three years, so really the company is paying to give you training instead. So choose a meaningful industry and find a good company where you can improve and grow, that’s what’s important.

Thirdly, I learned that knowledge is not the same as wisdom. All of you have learned a lot and have a lot of valuable knowledge, but this knowledge must be practiced in order to produce experience, and in the process of accumulation, there will be different experiences of reflection, learning and empathy, especially from failure, slowly and surely all these experiences will be condensed into useful wisdom.

My personal development can be divided into three stages. I began as a I-shaped person with some basic skills in business management. Later on, due to my job and curiosity, I gained respected experience in technology development, manufacturing, branding, global marketing, and service and thus gradually becoming a T-shape multidisciplinary professional.

However, when I combined the future mission and direction of the company with my life goals, promoting it enthusiastically and actively, that is when I finally became a X-shape transdisciplinary leader.

Once the company became more stable, I was faced with the challenge of planning the vision, mission, positioning, and long-term strategy for the company. At this stage, I had some new insights.

First, you must be able to draw a “golden triangle”, an equilateral triangle is the most stable shape with strategy on top, tactics in the middle, and operations at the bottom. In other words, the strategy is to do the right thing, the tactics is the using the right methods, and operations is using the right methods to excel on doing the right things while constantly improving them.

To develop long-term strategies, it is necessary to have insight.

I enjoy looking at the globe, yes, the spherical model of Earth that sits on a stand and can be rotated. When you rotate the globe, you can see every place and country on it, its geographical location, its natural ecology, and you can think about its historical evolution and development, so that you can come up with an overall comprehensive concept.

When thinking about long-term strategy, it is not easy to come up with a groundbreaking idea, because “men are often blind in their own cause”

Therefore, when I think about long-term strategy, I imagine myself as if I were looking at a rotating Earth from a man-made satellite. With the height of the universe, the breadth of global vision and the length of historical evolution, you will be able think about it from the perspective of an observer, and then you may have a breakthrough. This is how the strategy and vision of “GIANT for the World” and “glocalization” brand management came about.

Another kind of insight is how to introduce the products and services to create additional value to people. This requires standing at the crossroads of humanity and technology, observing their changes carefully, and then using technological advances to provide the best solutions for the potential needs of humanity in a timely manner. This is how GIANT’s Cycling World continues to introduce innovative values to its products.

We have also developed a special philosophy in our business, which is “don’t be the first one, be the only one”. There are so many people in the world, but no two people share the same fingerprints, making each person unique and one of a kind. God created each person with purpose and has gifted us with the abilities and elements needed for success. All of which is in your heart, waiting for you to take them. Therefore, we should not just follow each other’s footstep or live under the expectations of someone else. Instead, we should find and give reigns to our talents, to truly be ourselves, to become the only one and live a brilliant life.

The same applies to businesses, you can’t just go with the flow, we must find what is right and suitable and what is meaningful and contributive to the world, this is what it means to be the only one. When you strive for excellence and strive to be the only one, you will find the right goals and the value of sustainability. If you try to be first in everything, you may pursue many unrealistic goals and either be destroyed by unbearable pressure or resort to doing whatever it takes, and end up on the wrong path.

I have learned two important lessons in my long quest to be the “only one”. When you are determined to do the right thing and you are unyielding and persistent in your struggle, the power of the universe will rise up and help you. In addition, if you do something meaningful and do it well with the power of life, you may change the world.

I urge you to listen to the small voice deep within you and let it guide you to find your talents and understand your destiny.

Do not seek to be the first but to be the only. Be true to yourself and be the only one. Live your life to the fullest and enjoy your life to the fullest!

Many people say that growing up in Taiwan, you must complete three challenges in your lifetime: climb to the top of Jade Mountain, swim across Sun Moon Lake, and ride a bike around the island. I think this is very true. Therefore, I suggest that after graduation, before you go to the military or get a job, you might as well join a bicycle tour around the island and spend nine days to carefully experience and appreciate the beauty of Taiwan. As a graduation gift to yourself, let the tires kiss the beautiful land where you were born and raised.

All the professors and parents must be thinking in regret, “Ah! Too bad! I didn’t ride my bike around the island when I graduated and now I’m already in my 50s and 60s…” But that’s okay! You are actually at the perfect age to start your adventurous life.

Our President of NTU, President Kuan bravely completed his dream bike tour around the island in January this year. Let’s give President Kuan a round of applause!

Some people think that Taiwan is small and has no future. Every year, the World Economic Forum conducts a survey and ranking of the strength of countries around the world. Let’s take a look at Taiwan’s ranking. There are 235 countries in the world and we rank 137th in terms of landmass, 57th in terms of population, 21st in terms of economy, 11th in terms of overall competitiveness, and 4th in terms of innovation. It’s true that Taiwan is not big, but we are strong and we have a promising future.

In the foreseeable future there will become a new situation in which the United States, Europe and Asia will be the three focal regions. Just like three circles, each of which prioritizes its own interests and is in long-term competition, confrontation and resistance, but at the same time has to maintain some necessary links with each other. And in each circle, drastic changes will be endless, just like a storm circle. These three storm circles are linked together to form a so-called PERFECT STORM.

The Economist magazine recently featured Taiwan on its cover, calling it the most dangerous place on earth, but at the same time the most critical place for the technology industry. Personally, I think that Taiwan may be in the most favorable position in the future, right in the middle of the three storm circles, the eye of the typhoon, which is the center point where these three circles are connected. This place seems dangerous, but in fact it is the safest, most favorable, and most critical place.

When the three storm circles are inevitably involved in a long-term competition, confrontation, and boycott - a zero-sum game. Taiwan does not belong to any of these circles, nor does it need to participate in these competitions, confrontations, and boycotts. Instead, situated in this critical position, I should begin to think about what kind of innovative value I can provide to the world.

Taiwan's efforts over the past 50 years have accumulated many rare and valuable strengths in technology development, manufacturing management, financial capital, social resources, and the democratic rule of law system. If the world is our stage, Taiwanese people who are proficient in Chinese and English, who have a deep understanding of Eastern and Western cultures, who are professional, who can cross borders, who are humble but not inferior, and who are confident but not arrogant, may be the best talents in the world.

The future cannot be predicted, but it can be created! 30 years ago, who could have predicted that Taiwan would produce globally renowned TSMC and GIANT?
TSMC is committed to the concept of being the only one, and has built up its strengths with its global foundry strategy, creating a high-quality and efficient supply chain and turning Taiwan into a technology island. With Taiwan as the core, TSMC is leading the worldwide semiconductor market.

GIANT also upholds the concept of "Be the only one" and leads the A-Team to turn Taiwan into the center of the world's premium bikes with the brand strategy of globalization and localization, and actively promotes the new culture of cycling, developing Taiwan into a cycling island and leading the world's cycling market with Taiwan as the core.

Here I also hope that we, NTU, can also lead the world with the concept of being the only one, and become the best cradle for the cultivation of the best talents in the world.

In the next 50 years, Taiwan will have the greatest opportunity ever! Therefore, Taiwan should get rid of the simple competitive mentality of the past and actively seek the long-term survival of the future, or go even further and ask itself: What can Taiwan contribute to the world? Taiwan should not just "secure Taiwan" in a conservative way, but should be more proactive with global outlook and establish a foothold in the Asia Pacific.

The last 50 years, for Taiwan, has been very difficult and significant. Fortunately, Taiwan pulled through and came out as one of the winners.

Now is the crucial moment to understand the past, delve into the present, and plan for the future. We must take the height of the universe, the breadth of our global vision, and the length of historical evolution, weigh the external situation, and measure our own strengths to reposition Taiwan and draw the golden triangle of strategy, tactics, and operations. Taiwan should be able to give full play to its strengths, create innovative value, and become the only one! Taiwan must become a good citizen of the world and continue to make more and better contributions to the world!

Graduates of 2021, among you are the future leaders of the country, the creators of global enterprises, and the core talents in all walks of life, the future is in your hands.
Finally, I would like to conclude with a quote from a famous scientist: Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving.

Do you know who this quote belongs to? That's right, Einstein!

Graduates of 2021, please get ready for your life adventure, get on your bikes and peddle courageously forward to create your own unique and exciting future. Again, congratulations and best wishes to each and every one of you for a healthy, happy, and meaningful life!

Thank you!

詳見：
https://www.facebook.com/NTUCommencement/posts/2718162161807541

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#臺灣大學 #畢業典禮 #NTUCommencement2021 #貴賓致詞 #羅祥安

【後疫情時代中國面對的經濟環境】

本文嘗試用一個廣角、簡略但直入重點的方式分析中國在疫情之後所面對的全球經濟環境。

國家競爭力的經濟學概念與中國縣競爭制度

根據經濟學比較優勢定理，國家之間的競爭始終被比較成本所局限。而在分析國家競爭力上，我摒棄華而不實的哈佛商學院Michael Poter的鑽石競爭理論，回歸最基本但正確的經濟學成本概念，其中尤受諾貝爾經濟學獎得主R. Coase的「The Problem of Social Costs」鴻文啓發：

國家競爭成本 = 直接生產成本 + 間接生產成本 + 制度費用

特別說明我所謂的「間接生產成本」更接近上頭成本，本身除了牽涉到整體租值外也會涉及到產業乃至於社會國家的路徑依賴。

在相同供應層面，某國是否可以用更低成本下滿足同樣的需求，以及是否可以善用比較優勢定理。後者包含了前者的同時，也是國家與國家之間的角色不單純只是競爭關係，而是有更多供需關係。後者之所以尤為重要在於「買方與賣方永遠不存在競爭關係」。因此在供應鏈上彼此依賴的買賣雙方國家，依賴程度越深入越廣泛，則敵對的成本將等比級數增加。

換個角度來說，Covid-19疫情本身帶來上述三種成本的同步增加。這也意味著在疫苗逐漸普及的後疫情時代，能夠以更快速地降低上述三種成本的國家將在新一輪全球經濟重新平衡的過程中取得更佳的競爭優勢地位。

在張五常「The Economic Structure of China」一書闡述的中國曾有的1990年代末到2010年間之縣競爭制度下，中國借此享受人類近代少有的超低制度費用與間接生產成本，佐以原本享有的人口紅利帶來的在中低階工廠流水線上較低直接生產成本，中國製造橫掃全世界九成以上的中低階工業領域。

但隨著中國中央政府出台勞動法與加強反托拉斯管制與大大小小的管制措施，上述獨有的縣競爭制度似乎已不復存在。這也為疫情後面對全世界新的經濟環境中國是否還具有經濟學謂「低制度費用」的高彈性與快速適應力埋下變數。

瞭解這個重要局限條件改變後，我們來看看疫情後中國所面對的全球經濟挑戰有哪些。

1 全球通貨膨脹可能帶給中國輸入性通膨

美國建國以來90%以上的M0貨幣發行量是在最近15年內產生，尤其疫情後Fed諸多舉措都可說是「瘋狂印鈔」，在世界多數原物料與貿易均以美元定價與結算的前提下，世界性通貨膨脹必然來到。

站在2021年5月這個時間點看，美國股市、房市、債市與全世界的大宗期貨、能源價格都受到局部性通膨影響，尤其主要農產品、金屬期貨價格多在52周以來新高。（見圖）

（美國M0通貨）

（美國股市）

（美國房市）

（美國債市）

（石油價格）

中國改革開放以來相當長一段時間貨幣匯率政策緊盯美元。2010年代以後雖然改盯一籃子貨幣，但明眼人都看得出美元的比重。故，在美元瘋狂印鈔的環境下，人民幣相應的輸入性通膨也必然發生。

這一塊我們可以預測，在貨幣學 Impossible trinity law的局限，以及中國對人民幣國際化的追求下，中國人民銀行應將在近年內逐步脫鈎對美元匯率的政策，同時部分放寬外匯管制，以得到更多貨幣主權。

同時取消或降低部分關稅，以及放寬戶口管制，都可以是中國政府提高國家競爭力可能採取的措施。

二、 全球局部地區將因疫情影響出現糧食危機

很明顯Covid-19疫情影響了糧食生產與輸布，全球局部地區的糧食危機已經開始出現。根據聯合國2020年糧食安全報告估計到2020年底全球因疫情而陷入經濟衰退與飢餓的人口數達8300萬～1.32億人。其引發的糧食價格增長將加重中國輸入性通膨下，百姓生活的負擔

中國家戶支出30%花費在食物品項，又中國國內大豆需求90%依賴進口滿足，因此可預見中國的飼料與肉品市場價格恐將上揚且吃緊。

（中國主要糧食供需狀況）

全球能源市場也會因疫情與之前負油價事件影響一段時間內失去部分供給彈性，意味著能源市場價格伴隨通膨因素影響的上揚也是可以預期，這一塊同樣也會加重中國未來將面對的輸入性通膨壓力。

因此我們會看到中國在人民幣國際化推廣上會施以更大力道，例如與更多國家簽訂貨幣清算與貨幣交換協議，嘗試在糧食/能源品項上更多地採人民幣定價結算。如此方可在不過度犧牲中國世界供應煉地位的前提下，減少輸入性通膨對人民的衝擊，尤其是輸入性通膨下中國國內資本投資的資源錯置現象將可以得到一定程度約束。當然這部分中國政府應該還會採取價格管制或其他市場管制措施相佐之，但政府干預與介入本身又會帶來更多訊息費用、交易費用，甚至政府本身就成為資源錯置的問題根本，也是極為可能。這些都是身為投資人的我們值得持續觀察與因應。

三、 中美衝突與戰爭風險提高

如前述，國家邊際競爭成本，尤其邊際間接生產成本與邊際制度費用，增加速率大過他國之速率，則一國之國力衰退，或更精准地說，國家相對競爭優勢衰退。反之則可視為國家相對競爭優勢增加。

在人民幣國際化過程將直接與美元產生競爭關係且削弱美國對全球徵收「美元稅」的能力，經濟邏輯上的效果是：2008年金融危機後的QE之所以沒有在美國發生嚴重通膨，正是因為美元在國際貿易與國際金融的霸主地位可以對全球抽取美元稅，意味著美國可以將貨幣濫發帶來的經濟成本移轉給全世界承擔，其中以世界貿易額佔比越高者承擔越多，故身為世界第一大商品出口國的中國自然也承擔大部分苦果，這也是為何我長時間以來主張美元的地位相當程度是由中國支撐。

而在人民幣競爭之下（我們假設人民幣國際化真取得成效），美國不再能輕易移轉自身國家競爭成本給全世界時，通貨膨脹將回歸隨著貨幣發行量增長而提高，這對美國而言代表聯邦政府與州政府等一系列債券、連動債務的利息支出成本將提高，未來借貸成本也將提高。在一定程度上，美國政府或州政府可能因此停擺，甚或我們會看到州政府、市政府因此破產。

因此美國必然會嘗試在各方面阻止之。

提高上述中國的國家邊際競爭成本也無可避免會是美國未來數十年的整體戰略目標。

所以我們看到美國從President Trump任期開始，嘗試尋找各種可以提高中國國家邊際競爭成本的手段。

然而在當今真實世界供應煉、服務煉、金流、資訊流高度分工交雜的局限條件下，我推斷任何一任美國政府、智庫都難以清楚釐清自身採取的任何競爭戰略是否會帶來意料之外的後果（unintentional consequences）。

a 舉例來說，比如美國政客錯誤判斷關稅手段制裁中國會有效，於是我們看到Trump任期貿易戰初期就是違背WTO規範，片面無理對中國出口商品加重關稅或其他非關稅貿易手段。

然而真正懂經濟學邏輯者看法多如我當時寫下的預判一樣 — 如果美國以關稅手段要抑制中國出口經濟，但關稅提高幅度不夠大不夠全面的話，則中美之間的貿易逆差狀況不但不會縮減，反而在某些不同彈性系數之下會增加。（見圖）

（中國出口美國統計圖）

反之，美國經濟將因自身對中國的片面關稅障礙而受創。

更進一步，若美國政客傻到真的將制裁關稅提到夠高，足以發生抑制中國出口額的效果，則美國經濟將必須付出重大代價，其中包括美元地位將大幅動搖。如前述貨幣政策問題，不但聯邦政府利息支出將壓垮政府財政，州政府乃至市政府破產潮亦不遠。故，我們看到即便是Trump也被迫停止更瘋狂的關稅壁壘措施。

b 再以半導體產業的光刻機為例，美國施壓荷蘭ASML禁止出貨中國廠商已經付費採購的光刻機，其結果反而是給中國光刻機或EDA廠商創造市場，協助排除了原本ASML強力的競爭。從經濟學角度來看這是一件很諷刺事情。

這是因為全球光刻機市場是一個高度技術集成的天然寡頭壟斷市場，除非有類似當年ASML與日本佳能之間的技術彎道超車（浸潤式UV光刻技術）特殊情況發生，否則後來者都會因為技術認證與攻克的巨大前期投資成本而被排除於競爭之外。

然而，從經濟學競爭的角度看，美國禁止ASML對中國出口，結果反而是讓中國半導體製造廠被迫轉向投資與採購其他中國光刻機供應商，使得原本在市場上幾乎無競爭力的後者，因美國的禁令創造的「競爭真空」環境而有了成長空間。

因此我們放大時間尺度來看，20年、30年後如果中國半導體設備商有了長足的進展，肯定要回過頭感謝美國政府政府的錯誤干預所創造的商機。

說到商機身為投資人的我們可以注意，在上述政客的錯誤決策中，一些轉瞬即逝的投資機會也會因政府干預而起。例如下一點。

c. Super Micro 間諜晶片事件，2018年10月美國知名商業性雜誌Bloomberg刊登新聞「The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies」聲稱Super Micro這家公司利用一顆米粒大小的間諜晶片替中國政府竊取資訊。

姑且不提一顆米粒大小，本身毫無無線射頻天線的晶片在當時技術上幾乎不可能竊取什麼資訊，2年多後海潮退去，不但美國政府或Bloomberg都未提出更進一步有力證據，整件事甚至根本就被遺忘。

當年我不但寫了幾篇文章駁斥這種謬論栽贓。還親自動手買入這家粉紅單公司，短短三天就賺了台轎車。

香港2019年暴動事件、2021年新疆奴隸棉花事件、最近新冠病毒向中國求償事件...等，我們都可以看到美國政客在試圖提高中國競爭成本的過程，會創造大大小小系統性或個體性的災難風險，例如前述Super Micro因栽贓性假消息股價從$20.61美元在一兩日內崩跌至$13左右，但隨著栽贓者無力提供更多證據，市場回歸均衡的過程，截至2021年5月28日，Super Micro股價已經來到$35。

這是說，某些因政治干預造成的個體性或系統性風險，雖然屬於不可預測的風落（windfall），但其中不乏類似Super Micro的例子，在隨後回到正常的價值位置。如W. Buffett所言：市場短期是投票機，但長期是磅秤。

d. 美國知名橋水基金創辦人Ray Dalio在其將於2021年11月初版的書籍」The Changing World Order」 已提前公開的第七章」US-China Relations and Wars」提出綜合國力歷史計算與國力表（見圖）

提出美國正處於信用擴張後期的大國階段，而歷史上處於此階段與新興國力上生階段的國家一旦發生國力曲線交叉時，多半發生大規模戰爭以重新均衡雙方與整體國際關係。

依其推論，中美兩國發生戰爭的風險來到史上最高點。

但這部分我持較保留態度，特別是新任President Biden政府的高達$6 triilion美元的聯邦預算案出台，我們注意到一者，美國聯邦政府支出繼續維持二次世界大戰以來的GDP高佔比--達25%，二者，預算增幅最大均在健康醫療（成長23.1%）、商務（27.7％）與環保（21.3％），然在國防（1.6％）與國家安全（0.2％）幾乎未有成長，甚至計入通貨膨脹因素，後二部門的預算是實質減少的。因此可推估此任政府對發生大型戰爭的預期心理。

四、 變種病毒的不確定性

這是最後最難評估的風險，在現階段的資產配置決策中不可忽略卻又幾乎難以估計。拔高到國家決策層面來看，這也是中國面對的最棘手風險之一。

結論：

以上是我從經濟學角度出發，非常簡略地預測中國在疫情後將面對的國內外經濟環境與挑戰。其中任何一項單獨提出要深入探討都會是長篇大論。還有一些我認為相對重要性較低的現象與局限條件轉變，本文也尚未涵蓋。

BTW，最後多提一句台灣獨有的風險：後疫情時代是否接種過疫苗有可能在相當時間內成為國際旅遊的必要條件。然如果台灣政府真的壓寶在台灣國產疫苗上，則在現今環境下有沒有可能不被世界多數國家組織承認？會是一個額外的成本。

參考文獻：

*  The Wall Street Journal, 「Biden is the $6 Trillion Man」 (May 28, 2021), https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-is-the-6-trillion-man-11622241749
*  The Financial Times, 「The summer of inflation: will central banks and investors hold their nerve?」 (May 15, 2021), https://www.ft.com/content/414e8e47-e904-42ac-80ea-5d6c38282cac
*  Ronald Coase, 「The Problems of Social Cost」 (1960)
*  Ray Dalio, 「The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail」 (2021)
*  Irving Fisher, 「The Money Illusion」 (1928)
*  Mundell, Robert A. (1963). "Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates". Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science. 29 (4)
*  Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz, 「A Monetary History of the US, 1867-1960」 (1963)
*  Milton Friedman, 「Money and the Stock Market」 The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 96, No. 2 (Apr., 1988), pp. 221-245 「
*  Allan Meltzer, 「Learning about Policy from Federal Reserve History」 (Spring 2010)
*  Armen A. Alchian, 「Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices" (1965)
*  張五常, 「Will China Go Capitalist?」 (1982)
*  張五常, 「The Economic Structure of China」 (2007)
*  Ronald Coase and Ning Wang, 「How China Became Capitalist」 (2012)
*  Alfred Marshall, 「Principles of Economics (8th ed.)」 (1920)

文章連結：

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Here are six unmissable experiences you need to try in the Nordic countries. Witness the world's tallest bonfire, take a dip in Iceland’s Blue Lagoon and even visit the official hometown of Santa Claus in Lapland.

What are the greatest football stadiums in the world? Wembley? Old Trafford, San Bernabéu? The Maracanã? It’s all up for debate, but if we’re talking about the most scenic stadium, look no further than the fishing village of Henningsvaer, Norway. This tiny venue with no seats is situated on its very own island, allowing locals to have easy access to the beautiful game. With Henningsvaer having a population of around 500, you won’t have too much trouble joining in the fun. To plan your Norwegian adventure visit: https://theculturetrip.com/europe/nor...

For another impressive Norwegian experience, make your way to the port town of Ålesund to see the world’s tallest bonfire. The bonfire is held every year on Midsummer’s Eve, and is part of Slinningsbalet, a massive yearly festival. Over three months, wooden pallets are stacked on top of each other to create a massive wooden structure which, when set alight, provides a spectacle that can be seen from miles away. Find out more about the town and its history at: https://theculturetrip.com/europe/nor...

The cold never bothered you anyway? Then head 200km North of the Arctic Circle to Jukkasjärvi, Sweden and chill in the world’s first hotel constructed entirely out of ice and snow. Make sure you time your booking, though, as each summer the hotel melts and each winter it’s reconstructed using ice from the neighbouring Torne River, incorporating newly themed suites, sculpted by a different artist every year to create the ultimate winter wonderland. To book your stay and read more, check out: https://theculturetrip.com/europe/swe...

For an even quirkier activity head to the Streymoy, the largest of the Faroe Islands. Here, hundreds of feet above the ocean, sheep are transported every year by a human-pulled cable car in order for them to graze. The sheep are then auctioned off to help support the local community. Plan your Faroe Island trip with Culture Trip here: https://theculturetrip.com/europe/far...

For the most wonderful time of the year head to Rovaniemi in Finland. The capital city of Finnish Lapland is the official hometown of Santa Claus and every year the local post office receives more than half a million Christmas letters from all over the world. Give the elves a hand in deciding who’s been naughty and who’s been nice and then head out on a magical husky safari. Read more: https://theculturetrip.com/europe/fin...

Iceland’s Blue Lagoon should be at the top of your bucket list. The famously milky-blue waters have captivated travellers and contributed to the country’s tourism boom in recent years. The waters are full of mineral salts, healthy algae and a kind of silica mud that contributes to its cloudy blue color as well as being a nourishing tonic for the human skin. A little-known fact is that the lagoon was the accidental result of drilling by the Svartsengi Geothermal Plant. For more inspiration for your Iceland trip, visit : https://theculturetrip.com/europe/ice...

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