Repost :
Someone wrote this:
More than 20,000 FWs are now quarantined in several large dormitories. Confirmed infections up to 9 April reads
- S11 Dormitory : 283 cases
- Westlite Toh Guan : 49 cases
- Toh Guan : 25 cases
- Sungei Tengah Lodge : 43 cases
- Tampines Dormitory : 38 cases
- Cochrane Lodge : 9 cases
- Kranji Lodge : 7 cases
- 55 Sungei Kadut : 7 cases
- Project Glory : 37 cases
- 6 Battery Road : 5 cases
- Mustafa : 57 cases
- Keppel Shipyard : 17 cases
These are males. They have girlfriends.
Another large group, of the opposite female gender, are domestic workers (helpers). They are not in dormitories, they live in a Spore family household. Typically, they do not open up their private lives to their employers who do not know who their boyfriends are.
Infected persons can be infectious before they develop symptoms. The caveat is that their emissions of droplets and microdroplets are probably very low in covid19 virusload.
Spore has about 1,000,000 FWs population (ballpark number). They are housed in 43 dormitories in S’pore. Some have bad conditions like overcrowding and poor ventilation. This increase the risk of infection within the FW population in each dormitory.
For the purpose of a very simple transmission modeling, take an example of a 20,000 FW aggregate group.
If up to 2% are infected, this means 400 FWs.
Like the average Sporean, FWs also visit supermarkets, take mrt and buses etc. These are transient presence.
What I want to highlight are situations for *sustained interactions* where infections has a high chance of happening.
The 400 FWs could infect onwards their girlfriends.
This could bring covid19 right into Sporean households in large numbers.
*IF* their girlfriends are mostly domestic helpers, and *half* are infected, these 200 infected helpers will be the trigger to tip S’pore families into a covid19 disaster.
This is the point where much worse things can very quickly spiral out of control in a very probable chain of large sustained group infection interactions.
We’re talking possibly 200 infected households.
A helper in a household typically look after at least 1 child. So possibly
- 400 infected parents,
- 200 infected grandparents (assuming 1 per family)
- 400 infected kids (assuming 2 kids per family)
We now have onward infections:
- Parents goes to their companies with many co-office workers.
- Grandparents are the most vulnerable group. With their underlying conditions, this aged group will take up most of our bed resources in hospital ICUs and high dependency wards (I’m also talking limited numbers of ventilators).
- Children go to school. They would infect their classmates. Typically 30-40 in a class.
Worse, these other kids goes home to their families. Again, another set of 2 parents, a grandparent and probably another sibling. They will cause disastrous onward infections.
- Sibling goes to school, in a different class. Perhaps a different school. Onward infections.
If such a covid19 infection interaction chain develops, it is truly disastrous.
In the last few days of increasing unlinked cases leading up to circuit breaker (great use of neutral language to describe lockdown measures), I was very concerned about the start of widespread community infections.
When the circuit breaker was implemented, I heaved a sigh of relief. Not a day too soon.
Now, when I learn that FWs now are the group of newly formed clusters, and I consider the consequences of this simple model of onward interactions and infections, I am determined to advocate as strenuously as possibly that everyone stays at home and work from home.
Take this circuit breaker (lockdown in another word) seriously.
The FW-domestic helpers contact is the weakest link in Spore society that is not usually discussed.
Do not downplay this simple model for what could already have quietly happened in the last 1 or 2 weeks.
*We need to maintain viligance, even after 4 May,* when the simple model can kick in to trigger and project covid19 right inside your hitherto safe family.
I advocate we all adopt a war footing against covid19.
We are the frontline of defence. Docs, nurses and hospitals are our last line of defence.
Stay home. Keep safe.
Keep everyone safe.
onward onwards 在 [電影預告] 迪士尼與彼思《Onward》2020 - YouTube 的美食出口停車場
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