根據計算,100萬人遊行隊伍要從維多利亞公園排到廣東;200萬人遊行則要排到泰國。
順道一提香港15~30歲人口約莫100出頭萬人。以照片人群幾乎都是此年齡帶來看,兩個數字都是明顯誇大太多了。
另一個可以參考的是1969年的Woodstock Music & Art Fair,幾天內湧進40萬人次,照片看起來也是滿山滿谷的人。(http://sites.psu.edu/…/upl…/sites/851/2013/01/Woodstock3.jpg)
當年40萬人次引發驚人的大塞車,幾乎花十幾個小時才逐漸清場。
而香港遊行清場速度明顯快得多。
順道一提,因此運動而認定「你的父母不愛你」的白痴論述也如同文化大革命時的「爹親娘親不如毛主席親」般開始出現:
https://www.facebook.com/SaluteToHKPolice/videos/350606498983830/UzpfSTUyNzM2NjA3MzoxMDE1NjMyMTM4NjY3MTA3NA/
EVERY MAJOR NEWS outlet in the world is reporting that two million people, well over a quarter of our population, joined a single protest.
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It’s an astonishing thought that filled an enthusiastic old marcher like me with pride. Unfortunately, it’s almost certainly not true.
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A march of two million people would fill a street that was 58 kilometers long, starting at Victoria Park in Hong Kong and ending in Tanglangshan Country Park in Guangdong, according to one standard crowd estimation technique.
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If the two million of us stood in a queue, we’d stretch 914 kilometers (568 miles), from Victoria Park to Thailand. Even if all of us marched in a regiment 25 people abreast, our troop would stretch towards the Chinese border.
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Yes, there was a very large number of us there. But getting key facts wrong helps nobody. Indeed, it could hurt the protesters more than anyone.
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For math geeks only, here’s a discussion of the actual numbers that I hope will interest you whatever your political views.
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DO NUMBERS MATTER?
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People have repeatedly asked me to find out “the real number” of people at the recent mass rallies in Hong Kong.
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I declined for an obvious reason: There was a huge number of us. What does it matter whether it was hundreds of thousands or a million? That’s not important.
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But my critics pointed out that the word “million” is right at the top of almost every report about the marches. Clearly it IS important.
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FIRST, THE SCIENCE
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In the west, drone photography is analyzed to estimate crowd sizes.
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This reporter apologizes for not having found a comprehensive database of drone images of the Hong Kong protests.
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But we can still use related methods, such as density checks, crowd-flow data and impact assessments. Universities which have gathered Hong Kong protest march data using scientific methods include Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of Hong Kong, and Hong Kong Baptist University.
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DENSITY CHECKS
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Figures gathered in the past by Hong Kong Polytechnic specialists using satellite photo analysis found a density level of one square meter per marcher. Modern analysis suggests this remains roughly accurate.
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I know from experience that Hong Kong marches feature long periods of normal spacing (one square meter or one and half per person, walking) and shorter periods of tight spacing (half a square meter or less per person, mostly standing).
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JOINERS AND SPEED
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We need to include people who join halfway. In the past, a Hong Kong University analysis using visual counting methods cross-referenced with one-on-one interviews indicated that estimates should be boosted by 12% to accurately reflect late joiners. These days, we’re much more generous in estimating joiners.
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As for speed, a Hong Kong Baptist University survey once found a passing rate of 4,000 marchers every ten minutes.
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Videos of the recent rallies indicates that joiner numbers and stop-start progress were highly erratic and difficult to calculate with any degree of certainty.
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DISTANCE MULTIPLIED BY DENSITY
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But scientists have other tools. We know the walking distance between Victoria Park and Tamar Park is 2.9 kilometers. Although there was overspill, the bulk of the marchers went along Hennessy Road in Wan Chai, which is about 25 meters (or 82 feet) wide, and similar connected roads, some wider, some narrower.
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Steve Doig, a specialist in crowd analysis approached by the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR), analyzed an image of Hong Kong marchers to find a density level of 7,000 people in a 210-meter space. Although he emphasizes that crowd estimates are never an exact science, that figure means one million Hong Kong marchers would need a street 18.6 miles long – which is 29 kilometers.
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Extrapolating these figures for the June 16 claim of two million marchers, you’d need a street 58 kilometers long.
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Could this problem be explained away by the turnover rate of Hong Kong marchers, which likely allowed the main (three kilometer) route to be filled more than once?
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The answer is yes, to some extent. But the crowd would have to be moving very fast to refill the space a great many times over in a single afternoon and evening. It wasn’t. While I can walk the distance from Victoria Park to Tamar in 41 minutes on a quiet holiday afternoon, doing the same thing during a march takes many hours.
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More believable: There was a huge number of us, but not a million, and certainly not two million.
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IMPACT MEASUREMENTS
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A second, parallel way of analyzing the size of the crowd is to seek evidence of the effects of the marchers’ absence from their normal roles in society.
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If we extract two million people out of a population of 7.4 million, many basic services would be severely affected while many others would grind to a complete halt.
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Manpower-intensive sectors of society, such as transport, would be badly affected by mass absenteeism. Industries which do their main business on the weekends, such as retail, restaurants, hotels, tourism, coffee shops and so on would be hard hit. Round-the-clock operations such as hospitals and emergency services would be severely troubled, as would under-the-radar jobs such as infrastructure and utility maintenance.
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There seems to be no evidence that any of that happened in Hong Kong.
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HOW DID WE GET INTO THIS MESS?
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To understand that, a bit of historical context is necessary.
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In 2003, a very large number of us walked from Victoria Park to Central. The next day, newspapers gave several estimates of crowd size.
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The differences were small. Academics said it was 350,000 plus. The police counted 466,000. The organizers, a group called the Civil Rights Front, rounded it up to 500,000.
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No controversy there. But there was trouble ahead.
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THINGS FALL APART
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At a repeat march the following year, it was obvious to all of us that our numbers were far lower that the previous year. The people counting agreed: the academics said 194,000 and the police said 200,000.
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But the Civil Rights Front insisted that there were MORE than the previous year’s march: 530,000 people.
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The organizers lost credibility even with us, their own supporters. To this day, we all quote the 2003 figure as the high point of that period, ignoring their 2004 invention.
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THE TRUTH COUNTS
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The organizers had embarrassed the marchers. The following year several organizations decided to serve us better, with detailed, scientific counts.
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After the 2005 march, the academics said the headcount was between 60,000 and 80,000 and the police said 63,000. Separate accounts by other independent groups agreed that it was below 100,000.
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But the organizers? The Civil Rights Front came out with the awkward claim that it was a quarter of a million. Ouch. (This data is easily confirmed from multiple sources in newspaper archives.)
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AN UNEXPECTED TWIST
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But then came a twist. Some in the Western media chose to present ONLY the organizer’s “outlier” claim.
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“Dressed in black and chanting ‘one man, one vote’, a quarter of a million people marched through Hong Kong yesterday,” said the Times of London in 2005.
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“A quarter of a million protesters marched through Hong Kong yesterday to demand full democracy from their rulers in Beijing,” reported the UK Independent.
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It became obvious that international media outlets were committed to emphasizing whichever claim made the Hong Kong government (and by extension, China) look as bad as possible. Accuracy was nowhere in the equation.
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STRATEGICALLY CHOSEN
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At universities in Hong Kong, there were passionate discussions about the apparent decision to pump up the numbers as a strategy, with the international media in mind. Activists saw two likely positive outcomes.
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First, anyone who actually wanted the truth would choose a middle point as the “real” number: thus it was worth making the organizers’ number as high as possible. (The police could be presented as corrupt puppets of Beijing.)
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Second, international reporters always favored the largest number, since it implicitly criticized China. Once the inflated figure was established in the Western media, it would become the generally accepted figure in all publications.
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Both of the activists’ predictions turned out to be bang on target. In the following years, headcounts by social scientists and police were close or even impressively confirmed the other—but were ignored by the agenda-driven international media, who usually printed only the organizers’ claims.
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SKIP THIS SECTION
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Skip this section unless you want additional examples to reinforce the point.
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In 2011, researchers and police said that between 63,000 and 95,000 of us marched. Our delightfully imaginative organizers multiplied by four to claim there were 400,000 of us.
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In 2012, researchers and police produced headcounts similar to the previous year: between 66,000 and 97,000. But the organizers claimed that it was 430,000. (These data can also be easily confirmed in any newspaper archive.)
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SKIP THIS SECTION TOO
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Unless you’re interested in the police angle. Why are police figures seen as lower than others? On reviewing data, two points emerge.
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First, police estimates rise and fall with those of independent researchers, suggesting that they function correctly: they are not invented. Many are slightly lower, but some match closely and others are slightly higher. This suggests that the police simply have a different counting method.
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Second, police sources explain that live estimates of attendance are used for “effective deployment” of staff. The number of police assigned to work on the scene is a direct reflection of the number of marchers counted. Thus officers have strong motivation to avoid deliberately under-estimating numbers.
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RECENT MASS RALLIES
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Now back to the present: this hot, uncomfortable summer.
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Academics put the 2019 June 9 rally at 199,500, and police at 240,000. Some people said the numbers should be raised or even doubled to reflect late joiners or people walking on parallel roads. Taking the most generous view, this gave us total estimates of 400,000 to 480,000.
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But the organizers, God bless them, claimed that 1.03 million marched: this was four times the researchers’ conservative view and more than double the generous view.
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The addition of the “.03m” caused a bit of mirth among social scientists. Even an academic writing in the rabidly pro-activist Hong Kong Free Press struggled to accept it. “Undoubtedly, the anti-amendment group added the extra .03 onto the exact one million figure in order to give their estimate a veneer of accuracy,” wrote Paul Stapleton.
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MIND-BOGGLING ESTIMATE
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But the vast majority of international media and social media printed ONLY the organizers’ eyebrow-raising claim of a million plus—and their version soon fed back into the system and because the “accepted” number. (Some mentioned other estimates in early reports and then dropped them.)
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The same process was repeated for the following Sunday, June 16, when the organizers’ frankly unbelievable claim of “about two million” was taken as gospel in the majority of international media.
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“Two million people in Hong Kong protest China's growing influence,” reported Fox News.
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“A record two million people – over a quarter of the city’s population” joined the protest, said the Guardian this morning.
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“Hong Kong leader apologizes as TWO MILLION take to the streets,” said the Sun newspaper in the UK.
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Friends, colleagues, fellow journalists—what happened to fact-checking? What happened to healthy skepticism? What happened to attempts at balance?
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CONCLUSIONS?
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I offer none. I prefer that you do your own research and draw your own conclusions. This is just a rough overview of the scientific and historical data by a single old-school citizen-journalist working in a university coffee shop.
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I may well have made errors on individual data points, although the overall message, I hope, is clear.
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Hong Kong people like to march.
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We deserve better data.
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We need better journalism. Easily debunked claims like “more than a quarter of the population hit the streets” help nobody.
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International media, your hostile agendas are showing. Raise your game.
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Organizers, stop working against the scientists and start working with them.
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Hong Kong people value truth.
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We’re not stupid. (And we’re not scared of math!)
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王儲一番話,就引來成千上萬的迴響~看來這次最受關注的選區還會是柔佛吧?
PANDANGAN IKHLAS SAYA UNTUK RAKYAT JOHOR YANG SAYA SAYANGI
Hanya pandangan peribadi saya untuk rakyat Johor.
Assalamualaikum W.B.T. Saya ingin mengambil kesempatan ini untuk berkongsi pandangan dan pesanan saya kepada rakyat Johor yang saya kasihi sekalian. Saya memberi nasihat dan berkongsi pendapat saya bukan sebagai ahli politik yang perlukan undian, tetapi ia datang dari hati saya sebagai seorang anak Raja yang berkhidmat kepada rakyatnya. Taat setia saya adalah kepada Sultan saya, negeri Johor dan rakyat saya. DYMM Sultan Johor dan saya saling berkongsi pandangan dan inisiatif apa yang terbaik buat masa hadapan negeri Johor. Bukan sahaja dalam segi pentadbiran kerajaan tetapi untuk memperbaikinya dan menjadi kuasa ekonomi dalam negara, menangani mentaliti ektrimis, menaiktaraf sistem pendidikan dan sistem kesihatan.
Dengan senario politik yang berlaku sekarang dalam negara, tidak kiralah parti yang memerintah atau parti pembangkang, rakyat perlu pandai menilai apa yang terbaik untuk negeri kita dan negara. Dalam situasi politik, rakyat hanya dengar apa yang disampaikan oleh ahli politik di dalam ucapan mereka atau di media sosial. Tetapi yang tahu situasi sebenar adalah DYMM Sultan Johor dan saya sendiri. Apa sahaja rahsia sulit dan agenda mereka kami tahu. Semua maklum bahawa ahli politik ini apabila inginkan sesuatu, mereka akan menabur janji-janji manis. Saya bukan ahli politik tetapi saya juga ada agenda saya sendiri dan agenda saya adalah untuk kedaulatan negeri Johor dan kesejahteraan rakyat Johor.
Semua maklum bahawa UMNO dilahirkan di negeri Johor, di dalam istana negeri Johor. Saya tahu buat masa ini rakyat semua berkecil hati terhadap kepimpinan negara dan saya faham. Bagi pandangan saya, UMNO perlu lebih aset daripada liabiliti. Ia bermakna UMNO perlu bertukar cara pentadbiran dan pemikiran serta polisi terutama sekali sistem hirarki. Kita perlu lebih aset iaitu orang-orang muda yang ingin berkhidmat kepada negara dan berkongsi pengetahuan mereka yang berpotensi.
Saya juga tidak akan lupa siapa yang merosakkan UMNO, yang menjadi peneraju dan melahirkan kroni-kroni, melahirkan korupsi, melahirkan proksi dan juga siapa yang cuba menarik kuasa-kuasa Diraja termasuklah cuba untuk membubarkan Askar Timbalan Setia Negeri Johor (JMF) yang kami semua sayangi. Kedaulatan negeri Johor jangan dipersoalkan. Kami telah wujud dari tahun 1885 sehingga kerajaan persekutuan juga belajar protokol, pentadbiran dan perlembagaan daripada kami. Kami adalah negeri pertama yang mempunyai perlembagaan sendiri dan ia menjadi contoh kepada negara. Kadangkala kita tidak boleh menyalahkan sesebuah organisasi atau parti oleh kerana hanya seorang yang bermasalah.
Saya tidak lupa pada tahun 1992 ketika saya kecil dahulu dan nakal di sekolah, cikgu akan bercakap kepada saya, “Awak jangan main-main, awak tu kerabat diraja. Jika saya mengadu kepada Mahathir, habis awak.” Begitu juga dengan kisah Prebet Adam dimana Almarhum Sultan Iskandar iaitu datuk saya yang tidak ada peluang untuk mempertegakkan diri kerana ketika zaman itu tiada kemudahan internet, semua media dikawal oleh kerajaan.
Media mengeluarkan kenyataan kononnya prebet Adam mengamuk apabila mendapat tahu adik beliau dibunuh oleh Sultan Johor ketika itu. Sedangkan Prebet Adam tiada adik lelaki dan hanya ada adik perempuan yang meninggal dunia ketika berumur 2 tahun dalam tragedi rumah terbakar. Saya juga ada berjumpa dengan seorang individu berasal dari Kedah pada tahun lepas. Beliau yang bercerita kepada saya yang beliau berjumpa dengan Prebet Adam dan Prebet Adam menceritakan bagaimana dia dipaksa sepanjang 10 hari di dalam bilik sel yang gelap oleh anggota polis untuk mengaku yang Sultan Johor membunuh adiknya. Inilah yang sanggup dilakukan oleh kepimpinan tertinggi kerajaan ketika itu demi mendapatkan kuasa sepenuhya di dalam negara.
Rakyat jangan mudah tertipu dengan individu lidah bercabang dua seperti ular. Buat masa ini individu tersebut bukan ingin selamatkan negara tetapi apa yang dia sedang lakukan sekarang adalah kerana takut apa akan terjadi kepada anak-anaknya pada masa akan datang. Sedangkan orang yang paling kaya di dalam dunia pun belum pasti mampu untuk melahirkan tiga orang anak yang ‘billionaire’. Nasihat saya kepada rakyat Johor, jikalau kita tidak suka sesuatu dengan kerajaan, laungkan suara kita untuk pastikan mereka tahu apa yang kita inginkan. Anda semua mempunyai DYMM Sultan Johor dan saya di mana kami boleh sampaikan suara rakyat kepada kerajaan yang memerintah dan kepimpinan tertinggi dalam negara. Jangan sesekali anda sangka yang kami tiada inisiatif untuk memperbaiki sistem yang berada didalam kerajaan.
Tuan-tuan dan puan-puan yang saya hormati. Jikalau anda mahu berperang atau mahukan pertembungan antara kerajaan negeri Johor dan kerajaan persekutuan ia tidak akan mendatangkan apa-apa faedah. Jikalau kami mampu melahirkan ramai lagi anak muda yang ada potensi, sanggup berkhidmat kepada negara dan kami boleh pastikan yang dia mampu mewakili kerajaan, kita boleh mengubah segala-galanya daripada dalam.
DYMM Sultan Johor dan saya mempunyai agenda dan perancangan tersendiri. Agenda utama kami adalah untuk negeri Johor tetapi apa cara untuk kami sampai ke Putrajaya, kami tidak boleh kongsikan kepada anda semua. Ia adalah sulit dan rahsia. Saya bukan ingin menyokong mana-mana parti politik tetapi untuk mengubah nasib negara dan memperbaiki sistem, bukan untuk menjatuhkan kerajaan. Kita perlu mengubahnya daripada dalam.
Jadi, saya dan negara-negara jiran kami berpandangan, jika kapal ini telah berjalan dengan baik selama berpuluh tahun dan mempunyai masalah oleh kerana nakhodanya yang bermasalah, tidak perlu tukar kepada enjin yang baharu. Duduk di dalam kapal yang sama, dan membimbing nakhoda tersebut dan beritahu ke mana kita mahu pergi. Cukup ini sahajalah yang dapat saya kongsikan bersama rakyat. Tetapi rakyat Johor perlu percaya kepada visi DYMM Sultan Johor dan saya sendiri. Tidak perlu banyak perkara untuk dijadikan contoh. Cukup satu perkara kecil sahaja yang boleh saya beritahu anda semua untuk dijadikan sebagai contoh.
Apa yang anda lihat dengan apa yang saya lakukan dalam pentadbiran Persatuan Bolasepak Malaysia (FAM) adalah sama apa yang kami akan lakukan di pentadbiran peringkat tertinggi. Bola sepak hanyalah minat saya. Pada 30hb Jun 2016, saya ada mengeluarkan satu kenyataan dalam laman rasmi JOHOR Southern Tigers yang mengatakan kami akan memusnahkan apa yang anda bina dan kami akan bina yang lebih baik. Ia adalah satu pembayang apa yang ingin saya lakukan kepada sistem pentadbiran FAM ketika itu. Saya tidak kongsikan perkara ini kepada ramai pihak tetapi hari ini saya akan kongsikan kepada semua. Misi saya ketika menyertai FAM adalah untuk memperbaiki dan mempertingkatkan struktur sedia ada. Ia juga untuk menukar struktur perlembagaan dalam FAM bagi memastikan kuasa Presiden FAM dan Persatuan Bolasepak adalah terhad. Mereka hanya menjaga Jawatankuasa Tatatertib, pengadil dan pasukan kebangsaan. FAM juga tidak lagi memberi arahan dan terlibat dengan apa yang berlaku kepada pasukan, kelab, kewangan dan pentadbiran liga. Apa yang saya lakukan adalah saya mengubah perlembagaan di mana kami melabur kepada FAM, melabur kepada semua pasukan dan kami menjaga kepentingan Malaysian Football League (MFL). Ini adalah sebab mengapa saya keluar daripada FAM kerana kuasa tiada kepada Persatuan Bolasepak sama seperti di negara-negara luar. Kuasa berada pada badan berkecuali yang menguruskan liga seperti LaLiga (Sepanyol), Seria A (Itali), English Premier League (England), Bundesliga (Jerman) dan sekarang di Malaysia adalah MFL. Tetapi jangan salah tafsir dengan menganggap Presiden FAM sebagai proksi. Beliau bukan proksi tetapi adalah individu yang layak dan boleh bekerjasama dengan MFL. Ini diibaratkan seperti latihan saya sebelum agenda saya yang lebih besar di peringkat tertinggi melibatkan pentadbiran sistem negeri dan kerajaan.
Tuan-tuan dan puan-puan, saya datang dari keluarga dan hidup di dunia yang anda tidak boleh lihat dan dunia itu dikawal rapi. Anda lihat bagaimana pergerakan sesuatu rejim dan organisasi sulit mengawal dunia. Kami juga mempunyai sistem yang sama tetapi kami organisasi yang berbeza. Jika anda lihat bagaimana organisasi sulit mengawal negara-negara besar daripada sebuah tanah kecil di Timur Tengah dan inilah yang kami lakukan disini untuk mengawal takdir sesebuah negara. Ia telah dilakukan sejak zaman nenek moyang saya dan kami akan meneruskannya untuk rakyat bagi ‘restore the order’ apabila ia terkeluar daripada ‘order’ tersebut. Itulah tanggungjawab kami dan ia akan sentiasa menjadi tugas kami.
Sekarang ini, di dalam negara situasi politik agak berkucar kacir. Tetapi ia tidak semestinya adalah pengakhiran dunia (kiamat). Inilah masanya untuk ‘restore the order’ dan melaksanakannya kepada sistem yang telah dirosakkan oleh individu yang berumur 93 tahun ingin menjadi Perdana Menteri sekarang ini. Jangan tertipu, buka mata anda, gunakan akal fikiran dan ikut bayangan yang akan saya berikan kerana saya tahu apa yang anda tidak tahu. Anda perlu percaya kepada saya kerana saya tahu apa yang ingin saya lakukan. Inilah masanya untuk bumi selatan mengawal sesetengah situasi dan memulihkan semula ‘order’ yang telah dirosakkan oleh individu yang tamakkan kuasa dan duit. Jangan mudah terpengaruh dan percaya dengan apa yang anda dengar semalam di Pasir Gudang. Negeri Johor tidak akan pernah lupa kepada individu yang ingin membubarkan Angkatan Setia Negeri Johor (JMF) yang telah wujud sejak 1886 dan berangan mahu menarik kuasa Sultan Johor yang memerintah serta memperkecilkan perlembagaan negeri Johor yang telah wujud sebelum adanya negara bernama Malaysia.
Ingatlah wahai rakyat Johor yang saya kasihi sekalian. Bersatu kita teguh bercerai kita roboh. Selagi rakyat Johor bersatu bersama-sama dengan kepimpinan DYMM Sultan Johor termasuk saya, pelbagai perkara yang kita mahukan boleh dicapai untuk masa hadapan anak cucu cicit kita. Jangan kita berpecah belah dan mudah dipermainkan dengan anasir-anasir luar yang mahu menghancurkan kedaulatan negeri ini. Lihatlah apa yang telah saya lakukan terhadap bola sepak. Bola sepak ini hanyalah latihan. Ia ibarat saya ke ‘driving range’ sebelum pertandingan golf sebenar.
Jangan tukar kapal jika enjin masih berfungsi dengan baik. Jangan menukar nakhoda kapal tetapi benarkan sultan saya dan saya membimbing nakhoda tersebut demi anda.
Ubah dan pertingkatkan apa yang perlu diubah dan apa yang perlu dipertingkatkan untuk negeri dan negara yang tercinta.
DYAM Mejar Jeneral Tunku Ismail Ibni Sultan Ibrahim, Tunku Mahkota Johor
————
MY HONEST OPINION FOR MY BELOVED PEOPLE OF JOHOR
Just my personal opinion Johorean
Assalamualaikum and peace be upon you. I would like to take this opportunity to send a message and express my views to the beloved people of Johor. I’m giving my advice and sharing my views not as a politician, but rather a message from my heart as a young prince serving his people. My loyalty is to my Sultan, the state of Johor and to my fellow Johorean. HM The Sultan of Johor and I have shared our views and initiatives for what is best for the state of Johor in the future. All aspects have been taken into consideration which not only covers the governance of Johor, but also the blueprint to make Johor an economic powerhouse in this country. Along with this, we’ve also addressed issues to tackle extremism as well as upgrading the educational system and healthcare.
With the political senario that is currently happening in our country, regardless whether or not it’s the ruling government or the opposition, the people must be smart in evaluating what is best for our state and country. Currently, the people are only hearing what the politicians are saying through their speeches or reading articles circulating on social media. The ones who know the real situation is HM The Sultan of Johor and myself. We know their secrets and agendas. Everyone is well aware that when a politician wants something, they will make sweet promises. I am not a politician but I too have my own agenda, and my agenda is to ensure the sovereignty and the welfare of the state of Johor.
Everyone knows that UMNO was formed in Johor. In a Johor’s state palace to be exact. I know the people are discouraged by the leadership of the country and I understand. In my view, UMNO needs to have more assets than liabilities. It means UMNO needs to revamp the way it governs, change the way it thinks and it's policy. One important factor in my opinion is the current party’s hierarchy system. We need more assets in the form of young talents who are ready to serve the country and share their knowledge and replace the old guards with those who have these potential.
I will never forget those who damaged UMNO. The forerunner who gave birth to cronyism, those who gave birth to corruption and proxies, those who wanted to strip away the power of the royal institution and those who attempted to disband our beloved Johor Military Force (JMF). Do not question the sovereignty of Johor. We have been established since 1885. In the early days of the formation of Malaysia, the central government learnt protocols, adopted the structure of governance as well as the constitution from us. We were the first state to have our very own constitution and has been a model to other countries. We should not blame the whole organisation or party because of one problematic individual.
I won't forget the year 1992. Back then I was a small and naughty kid in school. My teachers will say, "Do not play a fool, you are royalty, if I were to report you to Mahathir, you are done for ". Same goes for the story of Private Adam, where my late grandfather, Almarhum Sultan Iskandar was not given a chance to defend himself. Back then we did not have the luxury of the internet and all media were controled by the government.
The media reported that Private Adam apparently “ran amok” when he got news that his brother was murdered by the Sultan of Johor. Private Adam did not have a brother and only a sister who perished in a fire at home when she was 2. Last year I met an individual from Kedah who told me that he met with Private Adam who told him how he was forced for 10 straight days in a dark cell by policeman and confess that the Sultan of Johor had killed his brother. This is how low the highest government’s leadership then is willing to go to have absolute power in this nation.
I hope the people are not easily fooled by a forked tongue individual. At the moment he is not trying to save the country, he is more worried of what will happen to his children in the future. Even the wealthiest person on earth would not be able to give birth to three 'billionaires'. My advice to the people of Johor is, if you have a problem with the government then raise your voice and let them know what you want. All of you have me and the HM Sultan of Johor to convey the peoples voice to the highest leadership in the country. Never for once think that we have no initiative to fix the system within the government.
Ladies and gentlemen. If you want to fight or start a war between the Johor government and the federal government, a head on collision, it does not bring any benefits. If we can produce more young talents with potential, willing to serve the country so we can ensure he or she is capable of representing the government, we can change everything from the inside.
HM Sultan of Johor and I have agendas and plans. Our main agenda is the state of Johor, but how we reach Putrajaya, we can’t disclose to all of you as it is private and confidential. I do not any political party, but in order to change a country’s fate and improve the system, it is not by bringing down a government. We need to change it from the inside.
Our neighboring countries and I believe that if a ship has been sailing fine for many years but has an issue due to its skipper, do not fix it with a new engine. We stay on the same ship and guide the skipper to where we want to go. That’s all I’m sharing with the people. But the people of Johor must believe in the vision of HM Sultan of Johor and I. I do not need to show many examples. Just one small example is enough for me to illustrate for you.
What you saw with what I did with the Football Association of Malaysia (FAM) administration is similar to what we will do with the administration at the highest level. Football is only my hobby. On the 30th June 2016, I released a statement with a quote on the JOHOR Southern Tigers official page saying, “We will destroy what you have built and we will build an even better one". It hinted on what I wanted to do with the FAM administration at that time. I did not share it with many people, but today I will share it with all of you. My mission when I joined the FAM was to fix and improve the existing structure. It was also meant to change the FAM’s constitution ensuring that the powers of the FAM President and Football Association are limited. They will only look after the disciplinary committee, referees and the national teams. The FAM will no longer have the power to instruct or be involved in matters related to teams, clubs, the finances and the league’s
administration. What I did was I changed the constitution whereby instead of investing in the FAM, we invested in all the teams and we took care of the interests of Malaysian Football League (MFL), no longer the FAM. This was why I left the FAM because the power is no longer with the Football Association just like in other countries. The power is with a neutral body that manages the league just like in LaLiga (Spain), Serie A (Italy), English Premier League (England), Bundesliga (Germany) and now in Malaysia. It’s called the MFL. Don't misinterpret it by thinking that the President of the FAM is a proxy. He is not a proxy but an individual who is qualified and can work together with the MFL. Once again, the modus operandi is simply my training before partaking my bigger agenda which is the highest levels involving the state and federal administration.
Ladies and gentlemen, I come from a family and live in a world that you cannot see and that world is carefully guarded. Just look at the small state regime in the middle east and the secret societies that controls the world. We are a totally different organisation but what we do is pretty similar. That is what we are doing here, to shape the destiny of a nation from the small southern state. It has been done long ago by my fore fathers and we will keep on doing it for the people. To restore the order when the order steps out of line. That is our duty and will forever be our duty.
At the moment, the political situation in the country is a bit messy, but it is not the end of the world. This is the time to restore the orders and implement systems that have been damaged by individuals who are dreaming of becoming Prime Minister. Do not be deceived, open your eyes, use your minds and follow the clues I have given because I know things you don't know. You only have to trust me, I know what I am doing. This is the time for the South to take control of the situation that has been damaged by money and power greedy individuals and stear it in the right order. Do not be easily manipulated into believing whatever you heard last night in Pasir Gudang. Johor state will never forget that individual who tried to disband the Johor Military Force (JMF) an organisation that has stood since 1886 and that same time, dreaming of diminishing the Sultan's power, belittling our constitution that has been here since before the inception of the country called Malaysia.
To my beloved people of Johor, we must remember that United we stand, divided we fall. As long as the people of Johor are together with HM The Sultan of Johor and I, we can achieve anything for the future of our children and grandchildren. Do not be easily played by the bad influences out there who want to destroy the sovereignty of this state. Look at what I have done for football. It is merely training at driving range before the real tournament.
Don't change the boat if the engine is not broken, don't even change the skipper but allow HM The Sultan of Johor and I guide the skipper for you. Change what needs to be changed and upgrade what needs upgrading for the sake of our beloved country.
HRH Major General Tunku Ismail Ibni Sultan Ibrahim, Crown Prince of Johor
Johor Mesti Sentiasa Jadi Johor
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