BUDGET 2014 : WISH LIST, EXPECTATION & STOCKS PLAY- by Dr. Nazri Khan.
As in the past, we generally expect a post-budget rally with FBMKLCI to trend towards 1850 levels after Budget 2014. We expect budget measures to arrest competitiveness and improve public finance to attract more investors confidence and foreign fund inflows back to Malaysia.
1. Generally, Budget 2014 should spur local market sentiment by introducing tough unpopular bold measures to boost trade competitiveness, improve fiscal credibility, address the recent downgrade by sovereign credit rating (such as Fitch Ratings) and encouraging stronger private sector participation to boost economic growth.
2. We expect Budget 2014 to focus on the implementation of subsidy rationalization programme (SRP), the implementation of services tax (GST) and extension of BR1M for the low income group.
3. Generally, investors do not believe there will be significant Corporate and Personal Income Taxes cut due to government fiscal constraint but more incentives will be given to lower income groups using a very focus and targeted approach.
4. As in the past, Budget 2014 should benefit construction sectors (especially those with low import content and high multiplier project owner). Higher multiplier such as MRT circle line 2 and 3, Southern Double Tracking and even the proposed Kuching-KK Pan Borneo Highway may kick-start but big ticket high import items like Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail and third interchange linking Johor and Singapore could be delayed.
5. As stated in General Election manifesto, there is a real possibility, Budget 2014 may launch National Healthcare Project (something like Australia's Medicare System and UK NHS) that will provide every Malaysian with access to quality healthcare. Healthcare stocks such as IHH, KPJ and TMC Life should benefit. Further, using Budget 2013 trend, Budget 2014 should again promote local tourism sector which means healthcare sector via medical tourism again will benefit.
6. The implementation of GST should benefit software providers. Stocks like DKSH, Censof and MyEG should win contracts while telcos that have been paying govt sales tax can now shift the tax burden to customers under GST. Hence, all three telcos Maxis, Axiata and DiGi will benefit.
7. Mass market consumer stocks (such as AEON and Parkson) however should benefit from government low income incentives such as higher BR1M, higher salary to qualify for BR1M (maybe raise to RM4000-RM5000 from currently RM3000), more KR1M (Kedai Rakyat 1 Malaysia) and cheaper house from affordable PR1MA homes.
8. Budget 2014 may grant more tax exemptions for hybrid and electric cars to encourage the usage of fuel efficient vehicles. This should benefit foreign hybrid cars markers such as Honda, Volskwagen, Toyota and Nissan.
9. Due to government focus on Islamic Finance, Takaful industry players should get more added incentives in 2014 to encourage bigger market share and more protection among Malaysian. Stocks going big into Takaful such as Takaful Malaysia, Allianz and MAA may benefit.
10. Due to Subsidy Rationalisation Programme (SRP), Budget 2014 should see more subsidy cuts which includes more increase in fuel prices (possibly additional 10 to 20 cents), more increase in gas & electricty power tariff as well as hikes in sugar prices. Such moves should generally be negative for consumer/glove stocks (retailers like Nestle, Amway and Dutchlady & gloves such as Hartalega, Kossan, Supermax who use gas and raw materials) while positive for utilities stocks such as Tenaga, YTLPower and GasMsia (due to lower inputs, more efficient energy consumption and better earning visibility).
11. Budget 2014 should impose higher sin tax to boost government revenue. Tobacco players such as BAT and JT International and possibly brewery such as Carlsberg and Guinness and even gaming players such as Genting and BJToto earning are expected to contract. Bear in mind, there is no tax hike for gaming counters since 1998, no take hike for brewery since 2007 and no take hike for cigarettes since 2010. Perhaps, there will be 3 cents extra tax per cigarrete stick and RM1.00 extra duties per litre of beer.
12. For Budget 2014, we believe banks and properties could be mildly affected by more government properties-cool-down and bad-debt-measures (involving house, property, automotive and personal loans). Softer retail/corporate loans are therefore expected due to higher stamp duty, foreign cap, tougher RPGT (real properties gains tax) and higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for property purchases and shorter the personal financing tenure.
13. Government will strive for Marhaen Budget (Rakyat) which generally should aims for :
(i) Close To Free Education - free high quality education for all citizens
(ii) Close To Free Healthcare - affordable and easy accessible quality medical care to all, rich
and poor alike
(iii) Affordable Housing - cheaper and comfortable for majority rakyat
(iv) Efficient Public transport - safer, cheaper, more efficient, reliable and comfortable for majority rakyat
(v) Security for citizens and their families with an accepted (perceived or otherwise) low crime rate.
14. Government will use creative ways to boost revenue without burdening rakyat. These may includes :
(i) Reduce foreign tax incentives - Remove tax incentives to foreign firms operating in this country which has low multiplier effect on economy (beverage, gaming & brewery).
(ii) Auction land - Government land should be auctioned to the highest bidder to gain maximum income in development of Government’s land
(iii) Auction licences - Licences for telco and television rights can also be auctioned to the highest bidder after a shorter fixed period to get more revenue
(iv) Sell concessions - government must not give companies (whether GLC or not) rights to operate a project (eg. power plant/highways for free)
(v) Curb smuggling - government should spend more on enforcement to reduce money lost on smuggled items especially on cigarettes, beers, petrol and rice
(vi) Cut procurement bureaucracy and costs - the Government must spend more to reduce bureaucratic tape especially in procurement so that higher saving can be made on resources and time awarding the contract
(vii) Reduce subsidising the rich corporate player - the government should overhaul and reduce subsidies for rich companies such as foreign automatives and IPP which benefit more than the rakyat
(vii) Impose tax on high end asset class - capital gains tax should be imposed more on high end income eg. gains from investments, property, antique asset sales, bond and stock markets.
15. Last but not least, oil and gas stocks should get positive catalyst. Due to depleting oil reserves, we expect government to encourage more participation in the downstream O&G industry which may include huge investment tax allowance for refinery activities to catalyse the downstream segment. This will also attract investors to participate in Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex to ensure its successful take-off. Petronas linked stocks such as Petronas Chemicals, Sapura Kencana, Uzma, Deleum, Perisai and others should benefit.
