今天很歡喜地跟大家分享一些非常有代表性，意義重大的全球各國能源轉型的最新實際成果以及前景、趨勢預測分析圖表。 <3
What’s Behind the World’s Biggest Climate Victory? Capitalism （09/16/2019 Bloomberg）
★ 部分節譯：
Solar and Wind Take Off as Coal Fades Away
當太陽能發電與風力發電急起直追，燃煤發電開始黯然退場中
The chief executive of the world’s largest private coal company sat before a group of U.S. lawmakers who wanted to know whether the fuel had a future. He didn’t hesitate. “Coal,” he said, “is the future.”
全世界最大的私有採煤公司的執行長，在美國國會面對一群國會議員質問有關燃煤發電是否還有將來的提問時，煤業執行長毫不猶豫地回答：“燃煤發電才是未來的主流。”
It was 2010. Coal supplied nearly half of America’s power, the executive testified, and was growing more than 1.5 times faster than oil, natural gas, nuclear and renewables combined. Global demand was on pace to rise 53% within two decades. And renewable energy? Not an option. “Wind and solar comprise just 1% of today’s U.S. energy mix,” Gregory Boyce, then the chief executive of Peabody Energy Corp., told the members of Congress. “It is unrealistic to suggest that renewables could replace conventional baseload fuels.”
那是2010的事情了。這位煤業執行長繼續指出，當時燃煤發電幾乎佔了全美電力供應量的一半佔比，而且燃煤發電廠在電力市場的市佔率成長之快，超過燃油發電、燃氣發電，核能發電以及再生能源發電加總起來的1.5倍。當時的預測為，在未來的二十年間全球對於煤炭的需求量，將比2010年時期成長53%。
那麼再生能源發電呢？這位煤業集團的執行長，Peabody 能源集團的 Gregory Boyce 直接了當的告訴這群國會議員，再生能源不是可行的選項。當時 Gregory Boyce 的理由是：“風力發電與太陽能發電加總起來的發電量，（當時）只佔全美電力供應量的區區1%佔比。“ Gregory Boyce 對國會議員表示 ”他認為再生能源可以取代傳統基載電力的燃料是不切實際的看法。“
Not quite. This April, for the first time ever, renewable energy supplied more power to America’s grid than coal—the clearest sign yet that solar and wind can now go head-to-head with fossil fuels. In two-thirds of the world, they’ve become the cheapest forms of power.
可惜事實並非如此。到了今年的四月份（2019），美國再生能源併網的發電量已經在史上第一次的超越了燃煤發電的發電量了 － 這是截至目前為止顯示太陽能光電和風力發電已經能夠在市場上跟化石能源發電一決勝負的最清楚的一個跡象。在全球其他三分之二的地區，再生能源也已經成為最便宜的發電型態。
Solar and wind will power half the globe by 2050, based on BloombergNEF forecasts. By that time, coal and nuclear will have all but disappeared in the U.S., forced out by cheaper renewables and natural gas.
根據專門追中研究全球能源產業趨勢的 BNEF (彭博新能源財經研究機構)所做的預測，太陽能發電和風力發電在2050年的時候，將可供應全球一半的電力需求量。到時候，因為不敵更加便宜經濟的各種再生能源發電與燃氣發電的強力競爭，使得燃煤發電與核能發電在美國電業市場幾近消失殆盡。
Solar and Wind Take Off as Coal Fades Away
當太陽能發電與風力發電急起直追，燃煤發電開始黯然退場中
The market triumph of renewable energy marks the biggest victory yet in the fight against global warming. Solar and wind are proliferating not because of moral do-gooders but because they’re now the most profitable part of the power business in most of the world. An industry that once relied on heavy subsidies and was propped up by government mandates is now increasingly standing on its own.
再生能源在市場上的勝利標示了全球在對抗全球暖化的努力中一項最大的勝利。太陽能發電與風力發電在全球各地如雨後春筍般的擴增，其最主要因素，並不是因為環保、道德人士的善心義舉所致，而是因為再生能源目前已經成為全世界絕大多數地區的電力產業中最為有利可圖的市場機制所導致的。這個早期一度依賴政府補貼以及政策強制規定支撐的新興產業，目前已經越來越可以憑藉自身的競爭力在市場中展現競爭力。
As a recent United Nations report put it: The renewable energy sector is “looking all grown up.”
正如一份聯合國最新公布的研究報告指出的：“再生能源部門看起來正在全面成長中。”
In the effort to slow climate change, the energy sector matters. Electricity generation has traditionally been the world’s biggest source of greenhouse-gas emissions. In the U.S., for the first time since the 1970s, this is no longer the case. Since 2016, American power plants have given off less carbon dioxide than the nation’s transportation sector, where oil continues to dominate. The turnabout owes a lot to cheap and cleaner-burning natural gas, but wind and solar farms are playing an increasingly important role.
在我們減緩氣候變遷的努力中，能源部門事關重大。電力生產在傳統上是全世界最大的各種溫室效應氣體排放來源。在美國來說，自從1970年代以來，目前是第一次出現電力生產已經不再是全美最大溫室氣體排放來源的狀況。
自從2016年開始，美國的電力部門二氧化碳的排放量，已經比仍然高度仰賴石油為燃料的交通運輸部門來得少了。這樣的轉變，在相當程度上歸因於大量便宜而且燃燒排放更加乾淨的天然瓦斯發電，但風力發電與太陽能發電也扮演著日益重要的角色。
Solar, wind and hydropower resources combined generate more than a quarter of the world’s electricity. In China and India that share will surpass 60% by 2050, BNEF estimates show, and Europe will top 90%.
太陽能、風力以及水力這三項再生能源的發電量加總起來佔了全球電力需求的超過25%佔比。在BNEF的研究報告中顯示，在中國和印度，這三項再生能源發電量的佔比到了2050年將超過60%，而在歐洲將達到90%佔比。
Renewable energy won’t save the world on its own. Power generation accounts for about a quarter of greenhouse-gas emissions being released into the atmosphere in the U.S. The rest comes mainly from transportation, manufacturing, agriculture and heating and cooling homes and businesses.
光靠再生能源無法完成拯救全世界的任務。電力生產佔了美國排放溫室效應氣體到大氣環境中的四分之一的排放量，其餘的排放量主要來自交通運輸，工業製程，農業生產，以及住宅與工商業的冷暖氣空調耗能。
Those sectors will need to match the sweeping technological advances and more efficient manufacturing that have slashed the costs of solar and wind power. Battery prices have fallen 84% in less than a decade. Cheaper parts are what have made solar and wind more economical to build than coal and gas plants across two-thirds of the world. Five years ago, by BNEF’s count, this was virtually nowhere.
上述所提的其餘這些部門勢必也將需要做出類似與光電與風電因為大幅技術進步以及更加有效的製程，導致的成本下降的進展，例如儲能電池在過去不到十年當中，價格就已經下滑了84%。
越來越便宜的組件是促成目前在全世界三分之二地區中，蓋太陽能發電和風力發電，比起蓋燃煤發電與燃氣發電更加經濟可行的一大主因。光是在五年之前，就連BNEF自己的研究預測，也認為這是不可能發生的事情（但是現今卻都全部發生了）。
Low costs sparked a clean-power frenzy that has quadrupled global renewable energy capacity to 1,650 gigawatts within the past nine years—more than every power plant in the U.S. combined. From Western Europe to China, solar and wind are beating out fossil-fuel plants without subsidies. Some projects are ditching long-term contracts altogether, relying instead on exotic hedges.
成本下滑激發了全球再生能源發電的開發熱潮，在過去九年之間，全球再生能源的裝置容量就激增了四倍之多，目前達到1,650GW的規模 - 這個規模比美國境內所有發電廠的裝置容量加總起來還要多。
從西歐到中國，太陽能光電與風力發電都已經可以無需貼補就能在市場上擊敗化石燃料發電廠。有些新的再生能源電廠開發計畫還根本就捨去簽訂長期購電合約的模式，轉而採用複雜的財務避險操作來營運。
In the U.S., natural gas remains king of the power mix, accounting for about 40% of the nation’s electricity. But renewable energy’s share is quickly climbing, reaching 25% earlier this year.
在美國，天然氣發電仍然在電力組合佔比中稱王，佔了大約40%的全國電力佔比，但是再生能源發電正急起直追，佔比大幅提升，今年初的時候已經站上了25%佔比的關卡了。
In a sign of where things are headed, solar installers and wind technicians are the two fastest-growing professions in the U.S. Solar now employs more people than any other power source. Wind supports almost as many jobs as gas.
在這種大勢所趨的情況下，太陽能光電安裝技師以及風力維運技師是全美成長最快速的兩種專業職位。太陽能光電產業目前的僱用人數已經超越其他所有發電型態產業所雇用的總人數，而風力發電的就職人數大約跟燃氣發電所雇用的人數相當。
更多詳細資訊請參見原文。
原始資料來源：
Can Renewable Energy Power the World (09/16/2019 Bloomberg)
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-can-renewable-energy-power-the-world/
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