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Two of the imported #COVID19 involved Taiwanese nationals in their 20s and 40s who returned from Sweden and the U.S., respectively. The five others were citizens of Indonesia, the United Kingdom and India, who all arrived in Taiwan this week.
https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202108270019
💕「愛台灣，我的選擇」系列第16發：熱愛台灣詩的美國學者白瑞梅(Amie Parry)
「我在加州內陸地區一個叫做聖伯納迪諾的小城市長大，隨後在聖地牙哥念大學和研究所，並獲得文學博士學位。求學期間我們必須至少選修一門外語，所以我就選了中文。1987年我大學畢業之後，跟朋友來了台灣一趟，在台灣教英文和學中文六個月，接著就自己一個人當起背包客在亞洲四處旅遊。
我本來想要研究中國古典詩詞，後來因為獲得傅爾布萊特獎學金，便又再度回到台灣。當時我在討論詩詞的聚會上認識了幾位現代派詩人，所以我就將研究主題轉而聚焦在台灣60、70和80年代的現代詩。我的博士論文探討的就是，以現代主義來理解現有政治語言中難以理解的現代性。我認為歷史形塑而來的經驗，往往比語言本身還要複雜。
我研究的那些詩作沒有明確的政治性，反而是有很強的實驗性質，並帶著詭譎的神秘感。當時我認識的現代派詩人大多是跟著國民黨飄洋過海來台的外省人，他們經歷過戰爭和顛沛流離，也經歷過劇烈且痛苦的歷史創傷。每個人的經驗都不同，在那個年代，也很難說出口。後來，我寫了一本關於詩的書，並聚焦在一兩位我覺得特別有趣的詩人。我在書中問了一些類似的問題：這些詩作如何幫你思考艱難的議題？
當時的現代詩已經頗有制度，許多詩人都有投稿《現代詩》這份重要的詩刊，有些詩人則是將詩作與戲劇結合。整體而言，台灣的現代詩、表演藝術和文學都發展地如火如荼，也深深吸引了我，但我還未全盤了解。當我完成博士論文時，我便獲得交通大學的教職，讓我對台灣的學術圈感到非常驚艷。而當我出版第一本著作時，我也很訝異能在美國獲獎；我根本不知道自己獲得提名，當時我問授獎單位：「為什麼選擇我的書？」他們表示：「因為書中其中一個章節是以跨國的架構來進行整體論述，妳不是單用西方的理論和東方的詩詞，而是從東西方共同錘煉出嶄新的知識。」
我目前任教於中央大學英美語文學系，除了擔任系主任之外，我也有教授寫作課、文學課和文學文化理論課程。從我1987年第一次來台灣到現在，我覺得台灣人愈來愈能自在地與來自不同地方的人交談，就個人經驗來說，我認為台灣社會愈來愈開放。我第一次來台灣時，經歷了許多台灣社會有趣的發展，也結交了許多朋友，並認識了許多學術圈的同好。我想，這些珍貴的回憶就是呼喚我再度回台的動力；就像是，如果你覺得這個社會充滿生氣和活力，而你也能夠參與其中、做出貢獻，我想這就是像家一樣的感覺吧！」
✨白瑞梅 Amie Parry 現為中央大學英美語文學系 專任教授
💕Why I chose Taiwan #16 – Amie Parry
“I grew up in a small city in inland California called San Bernardino. I went to college and graduate school in San Diego. I got my PhD in literature. We were all expected to learn at least one language, so I did Chinese. I traveled to Taiwan with a friend right after I graduated from college in 1987. We came here to teach English and study Chinese for six months, then I traveled around Asia by myself with a backpack.
I originally wanted to study classical Chinese poetry. I got a Fulbright grant and I came back here. I started going to the poetry nights that were happening at that time. I met some of the modernist poets, and I switched my focus to the modernist poetry of the 60s, 70s, and 80s in Taiwan. I wrote my dissertation on modernism as a way of understanding the parts of modernity that are hard to know in the existing political language that we inherit. I think that experience in historical formation is always more complicated than the language.
These poems are not explicitly political; they're very experimental and strange. At the time, the modernist poets I met were mostly 外省, men who had been drafted and come over with the KMT, so they had experienced war and displacement, and a very intense and traumatic historical moment. People experienced it differently, and at that time, it was a hard thing to talk about. Later, I wrote a book about poetry, but I just focused on one or two poets I find really, really fascinating. And I was asking some of the same kinds of questions: how can these poems help you think about certain topics that are hard to think about?
At that time, Modernist poetry was a kind of an institution already. There was a journal called 現代詩, “Modern Poetry,” a really important journal that most of these poets were published in. Some of them combined poetry and theater. There's just so much going on in Taiwan in terms of poetry and performance and literature. It's just amazing. And I'm very interested in it at all, but I haven't kept up. After I finished my dissertation, I got a job offer at 交大. I thought, wow, there's something really amazing happening intellectually here. When my first book came out, it actually got an award in the U.S., and I was so surprised. I didn't even know it had been nominated. I asked them, ‘Why did you choose my book?’ And they said, because one of the chapters has a transnational of framework for the whole argument, so it wasn't like you used Western theories and Eastern texts, it's like the whole knowledge part is coming out of both places.
I currently teach in the English department at National Central University. I'm the chair and I teach writing classes, literature classes, and literary and cultural theory classes. Since my first visit to Taiwan in 1987, I think people are a little more comfortable talking to people from different places. In my personal interactions, I feel a difference, like a greater openness. Back then, there were so many interesting things happening here, all at one time, and that's the time that I happened to be here. And I made good friends in my personal life and in my intellectual life. And I think those are the things that made me come back: like if you feel that there's something interesting happening and there's some way that you can support it. I guess that's a way of feeling at home.” — Amie Parry
✨Amie Parry is professor of the Department of English at the National Central University
【近日股市資金行情之我見】
這兩個月忙著跨海搬家，沒太多時間寫長文。這篇文章從今年1月斷斷續續寫到現在，主要嘗試回答兩個問題：
1. 2021年初是否存在市場過熱現象？
2. 美國政府2020年的瘋狂印鈔行為（參見下圖）是否會引發嚴重通貨膨脹？投資人應該如何因應？

首先關於第一個問題，在今年2月份我們看到美國股市的option契約數量大增，從19M/每日增加至30M/每日；SPACs形式2020年增加200件，募資$74B；GME軋空炒作行情。
這樣是否存在擦鞋童現象？
這部分我想先回顧17世紀荷蘭鬱金香投機事件。
傳說當年荷蘭鬱金香莖球被瘋狂炒作，價格上漲幾百倍，荷蘭舉國人民紛紛陷入投機熱潮，甚至20世紀德國知名投資客柯斯多蘭尼稱當年有駝背侏儒光是出租其後背供投資客們寫上最金莖球價格，然後穿梭人群中賺了一小筆。
隨後鬱金香莖球炒作泡沫破裂，荷蘭國家經濟受到重創，進而影響當年曾是海上商業王國的地位。
然而史實是如此嗎？
美國經濟學家Peter Garber專門研究此一投機炒作的經濟史，並寫下幾篇著名論文。而依據其著作"Famous First Bubbles The Fundamentals of Early Manias" 一書，我整理幾個重點：
1. 實際上鬱金香熱潮時間相當短，價格明顯彈升發生在1636年11月～1637年1月份。
2. 參與人數總共約350人，全是職業商人；真正支付高價（超過300荷蘭盾）者約莫10人，多數人其實是透過遠期合約的方式進行炒作，而最後多以違約拒絕真實支付現金，直到荷蘭當地鬱金香相關商會與政府出面介入，才以履約價格的10%甚至5%方式解除合約。
3. 非常昂貴的品種，如Semper Augustus 的真實漲幅只有5倍（從原本的1千出頭荷蘭盾漲至5千多），並非都市傳說中幾百倍的漲幅。
漲幅較大的主要是那些本來就平價的品種，例如Gouda buds，起漲價格約２荷蘭盾，最高價50多荷蘭頓。即便存在瘋漲，但至多也是一、二十倍，這即便放在現代農產品供需失調時的價格軌跡來比較，也並不離奇。例如台灣颱風後的香菜價格漲幅。
這邊可以題外話說明為何Semper Augustus這品種售價昂貴。因為這特殊品種本不存在於大自然，而是農夫必須將快開花的鬱金香球莖人工嫁接罹患某種病毒的鬱金香，才能開出特殊花色。而這種嫁接病毒的球莖將會死亡，不再具備繁衍後代的能力。此外，嫁接後的成功率在當年也並不高，不保證存活也不保證開出特殊花色。
物以稀為貴下使得Semper Augustus這品種本來售價就高昂，是一般品種的百倍。
讀者可參見以下幾張當年不同品種的價格走勢圖：

4. 也因為這個事件的範圍與熱潮都比傳說中小得多，因此並未對實質荷蘭資本市場或經濟體造成多少負面影響。
荷蘭鬱金香泡沫事件有三點啟示：
a. 即便在當年差不多時期的著作、媒體都有對其瘋狂投機炒作的描述，但實證來看誇大成分居多。很可能受到作家喜歡站在道德高點批判投機行為的習慣影響，但做為投資人或經濟史研究者在考據曾經的泡沫事件，始終必須以事實為依歸。
b. 小範圍小規模的投機炒作，無論價格哄抬得多麼高聳入天，事實是「毀約」始終是一種選項，有行無市的價格不存在經濟學意義。
c. 同樣地，小範圍小規模的投機炒作，無論價格哄抬得多麼高聳入天，對整體經濟乃至於資本市場的影響同樣不會太大。這意味著我們雖然應該警醒擦鞋童現象，但也無需杯弓蛇影。
如同我在去年幾篇文章中談到的，我認為Covid-19疫情本身造成的經濟損害遠不如人為的隔離措施所造成。目前看到的全世界生產力衰退，人禍成分高過天災。但與2009年不同之處在於：
「Personal savings soared as high as 33.7% in April following the Cares Act and were still a healthy 13.7% in December before Congress passed another $900 billion in Covid aid. This means that, unlike during the 2009 recession, households aren’t weighed down by debt.
Personal bankruptcies, home foreclosures and loan delinquencies last fall were the lowest since at least 2003. The mortgage delinquency rate was 0.7% in the third quarter of 2020 compared to 7% in the first quarter of 2009. ...」
出自Wrong Stimulus, Wrong Time - WSJ （ Feb. 5, 2021）報導。
因此在我看來，此文撰寫的時間點，雖然多多少少某些類股上存在擦鞋童現象，投資人不必過度擔憂。投資人真正該做好未雨綢繆準備的，是美國瘋狂印鈔下必然到來的嚴重通貨膨脹。
問題二：通貨膨脹下股票標的如何選擇？
高資產或高負債的公司在嚴重通膨時期的股價表現優於高現金部位的公司。在經濟學大師Armen A. Alchian 1965年的論文 "Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices "中，特別指出傳統經濟學如凱因斯、費雪等著名學者之見認為銀行身為典型債務人，在通貨膨脹環境下應該有較好的股價表現。而Alchian則點出這些學者大老忽略銀行雖然集債務於一身（大眾存款之於銀行就是債務），然而銀行受限於法規與現實，其資產多是「現金資產（money-type assets）」，故在嚴重通貨膨脹影響下，銀行實際經濟損失大過通膨泡沫所得，股價表現當然好不到哪去。
Alchian此文對我的啟發甚大，揭櫫面對貨幣因素影響甚大時的投資方向。
但我們要知道Armen Alchian的論文寫作時期與如今的投資環境又有幾個重大侷限條件之不同，因此我們不能生吞活剝地硬套Alchian的觀點，而是必須真實理解背後隱含的正確經濟學邏輯，並依據當今侷限條件之不同而修改並應用。
引入費雪的利息理論與張五常的財富倉庫概念，現今世界何謂資產、何謂債權債務、何謂現金？我們必須要能超脫會計學、法學的思維侷限，而從真正在投資決策上有效益的經濟學角度切入。
一個我認為值得投資人注意的重點是：投資人對於高商譽（goodwill）的公司能否有正確地、在經濟學層面的深度理解與評價機制。
這點同樣也適用在面對新科技寵兒如電動車之流之正確價格評估。
以長期投資角度看，如果以夠低的成本入手高資產或高品牌價值公司，本身部位又很大，則隨後的股市大幅修正甚至崩盤基本可以無視
如果部位不大，則可以視隨後散戶瘋狂狀況逐漸增加現金部位。
回到現實面，我認為通膨現象確實在發生，有兩個現象值得注意：
a. 機構法人買入加密貨幣的金流增加
「...JPMorgan, said the size of the bitcoin market had grown to equal about a fifth of gold held for investment and trading purposes, with a market capitalisation for the cryptocurrency of $750bn at its peak earlier this year, meaning it “is far from a niche asset class”. 」
「...Analysts at Canadian insurance company Manulife said in late January that the expansion in central banks’ balance sheets and rising public debt would push investors further into alternative asset classes ...」
「...Xangle showing that investors have lost more than $16bn to fraud since 2012 ...」
b. 近日美國美國前25大銀行對私人之貸款佔總資產比例從去年54.1%下降之45.7%，且放在Fed reserve account總金額達$3.15兆美元。
（The 25 largest U.S. banks currently hold 45.7% of their assets in loans and leases, according to Fed data released Friday, down from 54.1% this time last year. .. reserve balances in their Federal Reserve depository accounts at sky-high levels, $3.15 trillion at present
）
通膨現象將會更嚴重，因為「...According to a recent House Budget Committee estimate, $1 trillion from last year’s bills hasn’t been spent—including $59 billion for schools, $239 billion for health care and $452 billion in small business loans. State and local governments added 67,000 jobs in January. They don’t need more federal cash. ...」
WSJ "wrong-stimulus-wrong-time " Feb. 5, 2021
如同我在「論比特幣」一文中闡述過：比特幣顯然不是被當作交易貨幣而是某種無根財富倉庫，因此其價格之暴漲暴跌均同時具備「合理與不合理」之雙面性。因為不存在適當的評價方式去推估其價格之合理性。
但在此文我想進一步指出，從另一層面來看，這種無根倉庫的價格變動本身卻可提供我們對於貨幣因素下真實通貨膨脹的現狀診斷。這好比我們切脈在左關中層把得一數滑脈，搭配右關心位或肝位的脈相，或胃經、肝經或經外奇穴的壓痛診斷，或舌診眼診等等訊息，我們可以推知患者是肝臟、胰臟有惡性腫瘤亦或慢性胃潰瘍。
比特幣的暴漲本身也是一個類似性質的市場訊號。
換言之，當我們把貨幣看做經濟體的血液/體液時，投資人懂不懂得把經濟的脈？是否可以從貨幣的脈相得知經濟血液/體液的品質、健康度、病理變異方向程度與進程...等等。當我們脈診上發現血液/體液堆積於某經絡時，我們看到某類型資產價格飛漲甚至軋空時，診斷者有沒有能力正確推測隨後的、不同時間點地病程發展與相對應的症狀發作？
中美貿易戰框架與因應Covid-19疫情的政府舉措則是結構性地在解剖學層面改變經濟體本身，所需要的制度經濟學知識又是否足夠投資人能趨吉避凶甚或從中獲利？
這些都是參與投資市場者必須時時捫心自問的問題。
我文末再強調一次：美國主要銀行減少對私人企業放款而增加手中政府債券這現象。
參考：
Financial Times "Bitcoin boom backstopped by central banks’ easy-money policies" 2021/2/4
Financial Times "US mortgage executives forecast a $3tn year in 2021 " 2021/01/08
WSJ "For One GameStop Trader, the Wild Ride Was Almost as Good as the Enormous Payoff " 2021/02/03
Armen A. Alchian, "Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices" (1965)
Peter M. Garber, Famous First Bubbles The Fundamentals of Early Manias (2000）
WSJ, "Fed Policy Is Smothering Private Lending" (2021/03/08)
文章連結：
https://ppt.cc/f7YCNx
本集廣告與 「【芒狗狗】素養教育學習箱」合作播出
【芒狗狗】素養教育學習箱，是專們為台灣孩子打造的在地原創素養教材，內容針對台灣情境設計。
#芒狗狗素養教育學習箱
#讓孩子的潛力發光
👉🏻 現在參與募資 https://bit.ly/3y06Rid
本集節目內容由志祺七七頻道製作，不代表 【芒狗狗】素養教育學習箱 立場。
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各節重點：
00:00 開頭
00:56 【繪本募資】一分鐘廣告
01:48 美國的邊境問題
02:54「非法」還是「無證」？
04:06 川普的移民政策
05:20 那道「又大又美」的牆，後來怎麼了？
06:51 拜登的移民政策
08:28 我們的觀點
09:35 問題
10:00 結尾
【 製作團隊 】
｜企劃：力寧
｜腳本：力寧
｜編輯：土龍
｜剪輯後製：鎮宇
｜剪輯助理：歆雅／珊珊
｜演出：志祺
——
【 本集參考資料 】
→拜登不蓋美墨高牆了! 上任首日推翻川普政策：https://bit.ly/3yOTgKR
→曾被川普當成重要政績 美國防部暫停蓋美墨圍牆：https://bit.ly/34xzg1v
→拜登移民政策大轉彎? 將繼續興建美墨邊境圍牆：https://bit.ly/3yMziAy
→美墨邊境面臨20年最大移民潮，拜登呼籲：「不要再來了！」：https://bit.ly/2Rb6XTE
→Biden tells migrants 'don't come over' in ABC News exclusive interview：https://abcn.ws/3yJSQpj
→拜登上任湧現移民潮 美墨邊界2月扣留近10萬人：https://bit.ly/3yS0X2Y
→美墨邊境移民湧入 拜登指派賀錦麗親自處理：https://bit.ly/34LrEsB
→Biden Denies Reports of Restarting Trump's Border Wall：https://bit.ly/2TlVmlc
→Biden admin to 'surge' aid to Central America, offer 'legal paths' to stem historic migration：https://abcn.ws/3vwMBTH
→Joe Biden's border challenge: reversing Trumpism – podcast | News | The Guardian：https://bit.ly/3i1uH7H
→Biden’s Dilemmas, Part 2: Children at the Border - The New York Times：https://nyti.ms/3c5VnQT
→歐巴馬特赦500萬非法移民 共和黨譏「皇帝」揚言彈劾：https://bit.ly/3c8ouTM
→Why Walls Won't Secure The U.S.–Mexico Border：https://bit.ly/3wLhmEB
→美國邊境拘留所實況曝光》毫無人性！上千移民塞鐵籠，有人擠到只能站著不動，稱女性被迫喝馬桶水：https://bit.ly/3i5Gi5O
→母子冒險走逾千公里 美墨邊境遭擋下：https://youtu.be/Wc5f11Bskco
→美墨邊境偷渡頻繁 人藏貨車活活被熱死：https://youtu.be/7sZ4BRw6xY0
→拆散非法移民家庭，真是川普的錯嗎？：https://bit.ly/3c2WDo0
→邊境圍牆預算卡關 美國聯邦政府停擺 ：https://youtu.be/aTOkozlcwNo
→鐵了心築牆!川普宣布:美國進入緊急狀態：https://youtu.be/5iCYGu-tdOk
→擋川普執意蓋牆，13名共和黨議員「倒戈」美眾院通過撤銷國家緊急狀態：https://bit.ly/3uHR58Y
→川普「美墨邊境建牆」仍擋不住？疑毒販挖跨國地道犯罪：https://bit.ly/3wHLJvC
→Privately Funded Border Wall Near Completion In New Mexico：https://n.pr/3yT9jaz
→Trump wall: How much has he actually built?：https://bbc.in/3c5MdnD
→美國法官下令 川普政府須全面恢復追夢人計畫：https://bit.ly/3icAIhI
→Fact Sheet: President Biden Sends Immigration Bill to Congress as Part of His Commitment to Modernize our Immigration System：https://bit.ly/3i61wR4
→移民湧入美墨邊境 收容所擁擠簡陋：https://youtu.be/OvEi4L4I6MY
→美墨邊境監視器直擊 走私客四米高圍牆丟2童至美境內：https://youtu.be/ZwTyx2Ty1CA
→美眾院通過法案 無證移民有機會獲合法身分：https://bit.ly/3i2prk3
→承諾廣收移民 拜登卻維持川普1.5萬人上限：https://bit.ly/3wJbDit
→Immigration Agencies Ordered Not To Use Term 'Illegal Alien' Under New Biden Policy：https://n.pr/3i5EV6U
【 延伸閱讀 】
→【美國大選．特別報導】川普與拜登大相逕庭的移民政策，台美人怎麼看？：https://bit.ly/3fCkxsu
→移動專欄--不合法移民的名稱之爭illegal immigrants 還是undocumented immigrants還是...?：https://bit.ly/3yRQFA4
→美墨邊境生活：https://youtu.be/Mb6ZaAHZnck
→In a ‘Sanctuary City,’ Immigrants Are Still at Risk：https://nyti.ms/3p3AlHZ
→Crying Toddler On Widely Shared 'Time' Cover Was Not Separated From Mother 2018：https://n.pr/3p7gmrC
→Yes, Obama deported more people than Trump but context is everything：https://cnn.it/2R6b0Ar
→KIDS IN CAGES AND OTHER SCENES FROM TRUMP’S “ZERO-TOLERANCE” BORDER：https://bit.ly/3fz3DLi
→From ‘zero tolerance’ to now: How America’s migrant policies have changed in the Trump and Biden years：https://bit.ly/2TqBX2B
＼每週７天，每天７點，每次７分鐘，和我們一起了解更多有趣的生活議題吧！／
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