Perceived benefit vs side effect
預防勝於治療相信大家都一定聽過,但現實中要讓病人或普羅大眾了解預防的重要性並非想像中容易。
骨質疏鬆好多老人都會有,不少年滿70歲的公公婆婆如果你捉去照DEXA scan和驗維他命D都會發現骨質密度過低以及維他命D不足。
但當你處方骨質疏鬆藥物時,例如上一代bisphosphonate時,很多病人都不喜歡,因為有反胃、胃痛和食道逆流的副作用。
常常我們都會聽到
「行得走得,無事無幹為什麼要食藥?為什麼要承擔副作用風險?」
「就血骨質疏鬆都未必會死,為什麼要為了不會死的病而冒險食藥?」
近來更愈來愈流行這種要求完全零風險的心態
的確,預防性治療是屬於non event的一種,非醫療相關行業的市民的perceived benefit vs risk跟醫護人員是完全兩回事的。
普羅大眾並不知道原來老人仆街後hip fracture一年內的死亡風險高達30%,平均每10個因仆街而髖關節骨折的老人便有3個會在一年來死去。即使幸運生存的老人亦可能因此失去行動功能,需要更多的支援,更有不少因未能照顧自己而要到護老院。
但對一些嚴重骨質疏鬆但未仆街的老人來說,他們依舊日日行街買餸無難道,你叫他們定期打骨針或飲可能會反胃的骨藥,他們真的會當你發神經。因為他們沒有經歷過老人仆街到底可以有多嚴重。
就骨質疏鬆藥
他們的perceived benefit — minimal
他們的perceived risk/cost — 打針貴、食藥反胃
但對醫護人員,特別是較有經驗的醫生或內分泌科醫生來說,老人仆街是生與死的對決
就骨質疏鬆藥
我們的perceived benefit — significant mortality and morbidity reduction
我們的perceived risk/cost — 打針貴、食藥反胃
是的,當你見識得多老人仆街的個案,你會發現預防是多麼重要的一件事。
但往往病人和家屬並不了解,只有當他們親身體驗過老人仆街之後髖關節骨折時,眼看老人因仆街而死去或從此行動不變時才會明白
「早知當初就吃藥打針」
但世事沒有早知,當他們親身體驗後,往往都已成定局,即使後悔莫及亦逆轉不了。
近排愈來愈多人不信任醫護人員,的確互信是雙向的,醫護人員要加強溝通令病人或家屬更加信任。但當一個人覺得所有醫護都加害你的時候,認為醫護的意見不可信,要求一定不存在的「零風險」治療或預防性治療時,便要承擔decision against medical advice的風險。
這個perception discrepancy在種種醫療情況都可見,如預防心臟病、中風、糖尿病、高血壓、高血脂、HPV、HIV、流感到今時今日的COVID等等。
There is so much a doctor can do
條路自己揀
risk perception 在 Facebook 的最讚貼文
最近,我在「TIME時代」雜志的專欄文章裡,向全球的讀者介紹了大陸「世界工廠」的+AI自動化升級。隨著勞動力成本的上漲,工業自動化、智慧化勢必是大陸製造業的一劑特效藥。自動化能讓運營成本下降,但仍能讓中國大陸保持生產品質、流程、供應鏈維度的優勢。AI賦能產業升級的願景或許還需多年才能實現,但當下的大陸已經讓未來可期。
以下是專欄文章全文,經TIME授權翻譯轉載:
「中國世界工廠 + AI 的未來」
多年來,中國大陸一直被喻為「世界工廠」,即便在全球其他經濟體紛紛遭遇新冠疫情重擊的2020年,大陸製造產業仍然維持穩健的增長范式,全年產值高達3.854萬億美元,占到全球市場近三分之一。
但如果你腦中的大陸工廠是傳統的「血汗工廠」,是時候修正你的刻板印象了。大陸經濟已經迅速地從疫情衝擊下復蘇,疫情同時催化了各種各樣人工智慧(AI)的應用場景加速實現。自2014年以來,中國大陸的AI專利申請量已經超越美國,至今維持全球領先。在學術領域,中國大陸的AI研究論文發表數量、AI期刊的引用量,也雙雙在近年超過了美國。在產業方面,AI應用在大陸的落地速度超越世界其他國家和地區,具有商業價值的AI應用如今開始百花齊放,整合了軟體、硬體和機器人技術的新一代自動化揭開序曲,AI賦能傳統行業的能量,正在蓄勢待發地重塑各行各業。
人類社會至今經歷了三次不同的工業革命:蒸汽革命、電力革命和資訊革命。我相信,AI將會是推動全球第四次工業革命的核心引擎,在世界各地點燃數位化和自動化的變革,而這波前所未有的硬科技浪潮,將由中國來引領實踐。
由於勞動人口減少和新增人口放緩,中國大陸的傳統產業正面臨著勞動力成本上升的巨大壓力,AI正是解決這個難題的技術解答。人工智慧不僅能夠降低運營成本,提高生產效率,擴大整體產能,還有望能帶來收入的增長。
例如,創新工場投資的廣州極飛科技是一家致力於未來農業的AI科技公司,極飛將無人機、機器人和感測器部署在稻田、麥田和棉花田裡,用技術賦能農業中的播種、農藥噴灑、栽種管理、甚至天氣監測環節。用於作物噴灑的極飛科技R150農業無人車已經被推廣到了英國,應用在蘋果、草莓、黑莓等多種經濟作物的種植流程中。
一些大陸的創新公司正積極把機器人拓展到意想不到的場景。總部位於北京的鎂伽是創新工場投資的生命科學智慧自動化公司,他們和實驗室、製藥公司、高校合作,憑藉AI+機器人技術的積累,用自動化解決方案執行實驗室中勞動密集、重複性高、但需要高度精確的任務和流程,同時機器人作業也將盡最大可能保護實驗室人員降低實驗過程中的感染風險。
除了創業公司,我們看到幾家成熟的龍頭企業也開始積極擁抱AI。創新工場參與了有28年歷史的中力電動叉車,這家頭部的鋰電叉車製造商已經推出了能夠在工廠、倉庫自主運行的無人叉車,並且無需對運行環境進行改造,能快速實現從手動到電動到自動駕駛的搬運賦能創新。此外,擁有50多年歷史的領先客車製造商-宇通集團,與自動駕駛獨角獸企業-文遠知行戰略合作,已在大陸三個城市的馬路上運行全無人駕駛小巴。
接著會發生什麼?我大膽預見,在更長遠的未來,機器人和AI將接管大多數產品的製造、設計、交付甚至營銷——很可能將生產成本降低到和原物料成本相差無幾。未來的機器人有能力自我複製和自我修復,甚至做到部分自我反覆運算設計。房屋和公寓將交由AI主導設計,使用預製建築模塊,交由機器人像搭積木似地築樓蓋房。無人公交、無人摩托等隨傳隨到的自動化未來交通系統,能將我們安全無虞地送達想去的地方。
這些願景成為現實或許還需要多年,但此時的大陸正在積極鋪墊引領新一代自動化革命的基石。可期的是,中國工廠的實力將不僅僅體現在產能上,而將逐步彰顯在智慧上。
本文經「TIME時代」授權進行中文編譯,原文如下:
China Is Still the World's Factory — And It's Designing the Future With AI
BY KAI-FU LEE
For many years now, China has been the world’s factory. Even in 2020, as other economies struggled with the effects of the pandemic, China’s manufacturing output was $3.854 trillion, up from the previous year, accounting for nearly a third of the global market.
But if you are still thinking of China’s factories as sweatshops, it’s probably time to change your perception. The Chinese economic recovery from its short-lived pandemic blip has been boosted by its world-beating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). After overtaking the U.S. in 2014, China now has a significant lead over the rest of the world in AI patent applications. In academia, China recently surpassed the U.S. in the number of both AI research publications and journal citations. Commercial applications are flourishing: a new wave of automation and AI infusion is crashing across a swath of sectors, combining software, hardware and robotics.
As a society, we have experienced three distinct industrial revolutions: steam power, electricity and information technology. I believe AI is the engine fueling the fourth industrial revolution globally, digitizing and automating everywhere. China is at the forefront in manifesting this unprecedented change.
Chinese traditional industries are confronting rising labor costs thanks to a declining working population and slowing population growth. The answer is AI, which reduces operational costs, enhances efficiency and productivity, and generates revenue growth.
For example, Guangzhou-based agricultural-technology company XAG, a Sinovation Ventures portfolio company, is sending drones, robots and sensors to rice, wheat and cotton fields, automating seeding, pesticide spraying, crop development and weather monitoring. XAG’s R150 autonomous vehicle, which sprays crops, has recently been deployed in the U.K. to be used on apples, strawberries and blackberries.
Some companies are rolling out robots in new and unexpected sectors. MegaRobo, a Beijing-based life-science automation company also backed by Sinovation Ventures, designs AI and robots to safely perform repetitive and precise laboratory work in universities, pharmaceutical companies and more, reducing to zero the infection risk to lab workers.
It’s not just startups; established market leaders are also leaning into AI. EP Equipment, a manufacturer of lithium-powered warehouse forklifts founded in Hangzhou 28 years ago, has with Sinovation Ventures’ backing launched autonomous models that are able to maneuver themselves in factories and on warehouse floors. Additionally Yutong Group, a leading bus manufacturer with over 50 years’ history, already has a driverless Mini Robobus on the streets of three cities in partnership with autonomous vehicle unicorn WeRide.
Where is all this headed? I can foresee a time when robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, design, delivery and even marketing of most goods—potentially reducing costs to a small increment over the cost of materials. Robots will become self-replicating, self-repairing and even partially self-designing. Houses and apartment buildings will be designed by AI and use prefabricated modules that robots put together like toy blocks. And just-in-time autonomous public transportation, from robo-buses to robo-scooters, will take us anywhere we want to go.
It will be years before these visions of the future enter the mainstream. But China is laying the groundwork right now, setting itself up to be a leader not only in how much it manufactures, but also in how intelligently it does it.
Source:https://time.com/6084158/china-ai-factory-future/
risk perception 在 IELTS Fighter - Chiến binh IELTS Facebook 的精選貼文
- Hôm nay chúng ta cùng luyện 1 bài đọc và xem những từ vựng hay trong bài đó nha.
THE IMPORTANCE OF CHILDREN'S PLAY
Brick by brick, six-year-old Alice is building a magical kingdom. Imagining fairy-tale turrets and fire-breathing dragons, wicked witches and gallant heroes, she's creating an enchanting world. Although she isn't aware of it, this fantasy is helping her take her first steps towards her capacity for creativity and so it will have important repercussions in her adult life.
wicked (adj): độc ác;
gallant (adj): dũng cảm
enchanting (adj): mê hoặc;
repercussion (n): kết quả
Minutes later, Alice has abandoned the kingdom in favour of playing schools with her younger brother. When she bosses him around as his 'teacher', she's practising how to regulate her emotions through pretence. Later on, when they tire of this and settle down with a board game, she's learning about the need to follow rules and take turns with a partner.
abandon (v): bỏ rơi
regulate (v): điều chỉnh
'Play in all its rich variety is one of the highest achievements of the human species,' says Dr David Whitebread from the Faculty of Education at the University of Cambridge, UK. 'It underpins how we develop as intellectual, problem-solving adults and is
crucial to our success as a highly adaptable species.'
achievement (n): thành quả
intellectual (n): người trí thức
Recognising the importance of play is not new: over two millennia ago, the Greek philosopher Plato extolled its virtues as a means of developing skills for adult life, and ideas about play-based learning have been developing since the 19th century.
But we live in changing times, and Whitebread is mindful of a worldwide decline in play, pointing out that over half the people in the world now live in cities. 'The opportunities for free play, which I experienced almost every day of my childhood, are becoming increasingly scarce,' he says. Outdoor play is curtailed by perceptions of risk to do with traffic, as well as parents' increased wish to protect their children from being the victims of crime, and by the emphasis on 'earlier is better' which is leading to greater competition in academic learning and schools.
International bodies like the United Nations and the European Union have begun to develop policies concerned with children's right to play, and to consider implications for leisure facilities and educational programmes. But what they often lack is the evidence to base policies on.
mindful (adj): quan tâm
scarce (adj): ít
perception (n): quan điểm
implication (n): ngụ ý
'The type of play we are interested in is child-initiated, spontaneous and unpredictable - but, as soon as you ask a five-year-old "to play", then you as the researcher have intervened,' explains Dr Sara Baker. 'And we want to know what the long-term impact of play is. It's a real challenge.' Dr Jenny Gibson agrees, pointing out that although some of the steps in the puzzle of how and why play is important have been looked at, there is very little data on the impact it has on the child's later life.
Now, thanks to the university's new Centre for Research on Play in Education, Development and Learning (PEDAL), Whitebread, Baker, Gibson and a team of researchers hope to provide evidence on the role played by play in how a child develops.
'A strong possibility is that play supports the early development of children's self-control,' explains Baker. 'This is our ability to develop awareness of our own thinking processes - it influences how effectively we go about undertaking challenging activities.'
spontaneous (adj): bất ngờ
unpredictable (adj): không thể đoán được
impact (n): ảnh hưởng possibility (n): khả năng
self-control (n): tự kiểm soát
In a study carried out by Baker with toddlers and young pre-schoolers, she found that children with greater self-control solved problems more quickly when exploring an unfamiliar set-up requiring scientific reasoning. 'This sort of evidence makes us think that giving children the chance to play will make them more successful problem-solvers in the long run.'
If playful experiences do facilitate this aspect of development, say the researchers, it could be extremely significant for educational practices, because the ability to self-regulate has been shown to be a key predictor of academic performance.
Gibson adds: 'Playful behaviour is also an important indicator of healthy social and emotional development. In my previous research, I investigated how observing children at play can�give us important clues about their well-being and can even be useful in the diagnosis of neurodevelopmental disorders like autism.'
toddler (n): trẻ mới biết đi
pre-schooler (n): trẻ nhỏ tuổi
unfamiliar (adj): không quen thuộc facilitate (n): tạo điều kiện cho
diagnosis (n): chẩn đoán
autism (n): tự kỷ
Bài đọc trích từ Cambridge IELTS 14, ai chưa có bộ Cam này không?
risk perception 在 3.1 Risk Perception - YouTube 的美食出口停車場
“does ' perceived risk ' correspond to 'real' risk ?”, and “how should we deal with societal perceptions of risk, safety and security? ... <看更多>