關於 risk of soft power ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

"May one day lead the world — but it will never be loved"
泰晤士報亞洲編輯唔好咁得唔得？

今日《The Times》嘅國際版長文，係由亞洲編輯Richard Lloyd Parry主理，分析世界各國人民點解對中國嘅感覺咁差，簡單啲講可以用一個字形容：mean！

佢講到明觀感嘅嘢係好主觀嘅，而問題係個政府點解用咗咁多資源同努力都唔可以响國際上贏到更多朋友同支持者。

//This dislike is personal...But strategically it matters profoundly to a government that has expended effort and expense in an unsuccessful effort to win international friends and admirers.//

佢話咁多年黎中國唔係無文化產業值得國際欣賞，例如飲食文化或者熊貓，不過响唔同嘅軟實力領域上面唔只落後美國，更加未可以同隔離啲亞洲國家比較。

戰後嘅日本主導西方對亞洲嘅觀感，到今日仍然有汽車、時裝、建築、電影同小說呢啲軟實力，而後上嘅南韓唔只科技上有發展，K-Pop更加領導國際流行音樂，佢話仲未見到中國嘅Sony Walkman or Uniqlo或者BTS。

//This is not for lack of effort...But China’s efforts to influence have often backfired.//
（唔係無盡過力嘅，不過每次都係「回力鏢」。）

例如孔子學院近期嘅狀況，法國嘅成吉斯汗展覽因為要審查內容被單方面取消（配上內蒙嘅語文教育事件），之後到疫情後期嘅"wolf warrior"就可以話係令軟實力有粉碎嘅危機（soft power runs the risk of being shredded）。

#唔好咁mean得唔得

原文：
《The Times》
Xi Jinping’s China may one day lead the world — but it will never be loved
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/xi-jinpings-china-may-one-day-lead-the-world-but-it-will-never-be-loved-v9cnqjx6t

【#TheDiplomat🌍】難得The Diplomat讀者對香港有興趣：

The series of iron-fisted moves last month in Hong Kong may seem sudden to international observers: Hong Kong government’s earlier reinterpretation of the China-Hong Kong relationship, the election of a pro-Beijing legislator to be a Legislative Council chair through a controversial mechanism, and Beijing’s recent decision to impose a national security law on Hong Kong. The desire to bring Hong Kong under the banner of “one country, one system” is not impulsive. Quite the contrary, it’s a calculated campaign to initiate a so-called “second reunification with Hong Kong” — since the first reunification after the handover, using a lenient soft-power approach, has supposedly failed.

What are Beijing’s calculations that motivate this bold campaign now? And more important, will the campaign work?

While I remain highly skeptical of solely applying the realist framework to study Hong Kong, Beijing’s mentality is nonetheless entirely realism-driven. It is therefore essential to use this lens to understand more of their thoughts.

COVID-19: A Golden Opportunity on the International Stage?

To start with, the coronavirus pandemic seems to have created an ideal backdrop for Beijing to push forward its iron-fisted policy toward Hong Kong. The West has been devastated by the pandemic, more so than China, and has been slower to recover economically. Instead of decoupling from China, Beijing thinks the West is desperate for an influx of Chinese capital and markets. This notion encourages Beijing to pursue brinkmanship, in the form of confrontative “wolf warrior diplomacy,” its escalation of sharp power, and, most recently, Hong Kong’s national security law. As long as the international community does not put their condemnation into action, Beijing will keep pushing the envelope.

Beijing is convinced that the chambers of commerce representing other countries in Hong Kong will always place profits above all else as long as the national security law does not threaten them. Business deals struck at the crucial moment can entice foreign businesses to use their lobby teams in their home countries in Beijing’s favor.

Although anti-China sentiment has become more mainstream, Beijing, the major beneficiary of globalization in the past two decades, has tied its destiny with various elites internationally. These “friends of China” can be swayed to safeguard Beijing’s interests, but the up-and-coming leaders in many countries look less friendly. Therefore, the window of opportunity for Beijing to act is closing before the new value-driven generation comes to power.

The Lack of Incentive Behind the U.S. and U.K.’s Escalating Rhetoric

While U.S. politicians from left to right are vocal against China, their ultimate goal, Beijing believes, is to win votes in the November election. They would hence avoid hurting the interest groups they represent and go easy on actions aiming to punish China, such as denying Hong Kong’s status as a separate customs territory, sanctioning Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or escalating the trade war.

Even though the Trump administration is ramping up the rhetoric to sanction China, protecting Hong Kong’s autonomy is not one of the United States’ core interests. In contrast, having control over Hong Kong is China’s core interest. Beijing would rather make concessions over other disputes with Washington in exchange for claiming victory in Hong Kong for its internal propaganda.

Britain, the co-signer of the Joint Declaration for Hong Kong’s handover, is arguably most entitled to denounce Beijing’s violation, which would give mandates to the United States to act. But Beijing is convinced that Britain, not as powerful as it used to be, will not make such a move. Beijing’s recent plans to withdraw businesses from the United States and list them in the London stock market is a move to place a wedge between the two powers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateralism and his harsh stance against U.S. allies also strengthens Beijing’s conviction that the West will not follow the United States’ lead.

Beijing’s Divide and Conquer Strategy in Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s parliament, the Legislative Council (LegCo), is a major roadblock to Beijing’s control, as demonstrated twice since the handover — in 2003 when the national security law was first introduced and in 2019 with the anti-extradition legislation that sparked city-wide protests. In both setbacks, Beijing lost control when moderate pro-establishment legislators broke away from the party line in the face of public outcry. As the September LegCo election approaches, the last thing Beijing wants is for the election to become a de facto referendum on the single issue of the national security law, which could result in another landslide win for the democratic parties. The law would be untenable to the international community if it’s opposed by both pro-democracy voters, which according to polls account for 60 percent of the votes, and moderate pro-establishment voters.

The moderates, despite their reluctance to embrace hardline rule in Hong Kong, differ from the more militant faction within the non-establishment camp in that the former rejects the so-called “mutual destruction” option, which risks Hong Kong’s special trade status — its economic lifeline — as a bargaining tactic to force Beijing to back off. Now that Washington is considering withdrawing Hong Kong’s privileges, the possibility of mutual destruction is becoming real. As Beijing has been promoting a narrative that all supporters of the protest movement’s “Five Demands” are bringing about mutual destruction, Beijing hopes the moderates, in fear of losing their financial assets, might turn toward the establishment.

On the other hand, the pro-democracy camp is at risk of breaking apart. Moderate pro-democracy supporters have been going to rallies to keep up with the political momentum. However, marches with more than a million participants would be impossible under the current oppressive environment. For example, the authorities abuse COVID-19 social distancing measures to suppress rallies, permits for peaceful protests are increasingly difficult to obtain, pro-establishment businesses heavily censored the social media activities of employees, and outspoken individuals are often cyberbullied.

Without support from the moderates, some within the pro-democracy camp may radicalize, as Beijing expects. The radicalization would fit Beijing’s tactic of painting protests as separatism and terrorism, justifying the imposition of the national security law. The trajectory would be similar to Beijing’s handling of the 1959 Tibetan “riots,” during which Mao Zedong’s directive was “the more chaotic the scene, the better.”

The Nationalistic Agenda to Divert Domestic Attention

But after all, to Beijing, Hong Kong is not just Hong Kong. In the wake of the pandemic, Beijing urgently needs to uphold nationalism to divert unwanted attention from its economic crisis. That includes a global propaganda campaign to promote its triumph over COVID-19. Upgrading the Hong Kong protests to a national security issue — as a battle against foreign interference to complete the “reunification with Hong Kong” — best suits the nationalist atmosphere. The all-time low sense of belonging with China among the new generation in Hong Kong further justifies a strong-arm approach. The success of the strategy would offer a way to reunite with Taiwan, which would consolidate Xi’s leadership within the Communist Party.

Also, including the Hong Kong issue as part of the national agenda means that the Hong Kong government, which has already lost its will to govern, will dance to Beijing’s tunes.

This comprehensive crackdown on Hong Kong’s civil society is unprecedented. Beijing believes that the heavy-handed approach would pervade Hong Kong with a sense of powerlessness and bring it to its knees. As long as the international response is limited, the execution of the national security law, according to Chairman Mao’s “theory of contradiction,” will follow a script of “a soft hand” and “a firm hand.” That is, after its imposition, the law will initially apply restraint and be used only on individuals to set a stern example, so that the general public would feel as if the law does not impact them at all and property and stock prices would not fall. Gradually and subtly, if the realist formula of Beijing works, the “second reunification” could become a self-proclaimed success story for Beijing’s propaganda.

However, Beijing’s evaluations are not foolproof. Any single miscalculation could lead to a contradictory outcome for the People’s Republic of China. Is it really prepared?

▶️ 國安法：中國的現實主義框架
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjhRbV8qTgo
⏺ 中美夏威夷峰會
https://www.patreon.com/posts/38378214

#新加坡辣妹更嗆辣
新加坡總理夫人，何晶於上周發表新加坡應該發展核電的言論，她非常了解新加坡在減緩溫室氣體上的不足，以及新加坡在發展核電上的潛力，畢竟新加坡的主要能源為天然氣，且未來冷凍空調需求會持續成長。而她也同時知道福島事故的發生原因，認為要從檢討實務面以科技來改善缺陷...不過從她的學術以及實務背景來看(新加坡工程名譽院士)，好像也不會太意外有這樣的言論出現，根本新加坡辣妹一個。

當然新加坡短期內可能還沒有核電廠建置的計畫，2012年的評估結果為不適合，但是相關的研究仍在進行中，2014年起投入了相當多的研究能量於核電技術研發。

▌何晶小檔案
新加坡國立大學 電機工程學碩士
美國史丹佛大學電子科學碩士
新加坡工程學會（Institution of Engineers, Singapore）名譽院士
2007《富比士》世界百名權威女性排行榜中，列位第三，連續三年前10名

SG decided in the early days, no more coal fired power plants bcos of the pollution they bring.

And we switched to gas as soon as it was available, bcos it is less pollutive.

In terms of carbon dioxide emission, coal, oil and gas would be similar.

But in terms of air pollution and various particulates from the fuel composition, gas is the cleanest.

We also considered nuclear.

Pioneers like Dr Tay Eng Soon were attached to the UK Atomic Energy Agency for training.

But singov then decided it was too risky since we have just this one small SG island. And so the team was disbanded.

Dr Tay Eng Soon went on to teach in the university, and later founded the Defence Science Organisation for Mindef, before ending as a politician who transformed vocational training for SG.

But the current generation of nuclear power generation is much safer than the 1st generation of nuclear power plants like the Fukushima plant.

Fukushima relies on active power source to maintain the cooling - lose that power source and there will be a serious meltdown risk.

Current generation designs are based on a fail safe approach. When power fails, the system remains safe.

This is similar to another concept called fail soft approach. In a fail soft approach, the system continues to be operational in a degraded mode, which gives time for corrective action.

With almost all Asean countries wanting to have nuclear power plants at some foreseeable future, it is important that Asean begins to do research especially on safety and security aspects well beforehand to build up professional and scientific capability and capacity to handle nuclear plants well.

An example of emerging security risks would be the cyber risks of an external agency taking over and messing a power plant via software and remote entry.

Newer nuclear options are on the horizon, not eminent, but within decades.

Overall, for a greener earth and to reduce carbon emissions, we must master and adopt nuclear energy as a key solution.

For now, it is better than developed and more capable nations step up their nuclear power capacity.

This will reduce the demand for fossil fuels, and lower the overall carbon emissions.

At the same time, developing economies can do their part to switch away from coal to cleaner gas or greener renewables.