關於 risk of fall goal ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

《South China Morning Post》
Which Chinese zodiac sign will have the best 2021? Year of the Ox predictions for love, health, career and wealth
https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/arts-culture/article/3121172/which-chinese-zodiac-sign-will-have-best-2021-year-ox
• Those born in the year of the tiger and rabbit will prosper this year and Hong Kong’s luck will improve overall, a feng shui expert says
• But those born in the year of the ox, horse, sheep and dog can expect a difficult and challenging year
• Those who feel beaten down by the coronavirus pandemic and economic downturn that plagued the Year of the Rat, take heart.
• Starting on Friday, which marks the first day of the Year of the Ox, Hong Kong’s collective fortune is about to change – for the better.
• According to feng shui expert Yunwenzi, or Master Cloud, the new year will be one of nourishment and healing. However, while the city’s overall luck is expected to improve, what the Year of the Ox has in store for us individually will largely depend on the Chinese zodiac sign we were born under.
• To help you navigate through the coming year, here are some tips on the dos and don’ts from Yunwenzi that promise to help each animal sign find health, love and prosperity.
Ox
For those born in the Year of Ox, take heed. This is also a year in which your zodiac sign is at odds with the guardian god Tai Sui (or Fan Tai Shui), who determines the fortunes and setbacks of mortals.
Oxen will face a number of issues in their career in the coming year. Beware of back-stabbing colleagues or getting into disputes. Focus on your work to avoid unnecessary mistakes at work.
“The ox should beware of the risk of getting fired in the coming year. They’ll lack luck and it may be hard for them to get a new job,” warns Yunwenzi. “It is also difficult for them to accumulate wealth this year as they may make bad investment decisions. They should not invest in projects which they are unfamiliar with.”
Oxen will not enjoy much romance either over the next 12 months; try not to look for partners in clubs or at parties. Illnesses will be a problem too, owing to their weak immune system, so they need to take extra care of themselves.
Tiger
Contrary to those born in the Year of the Ox, the tiger is the luckiest of all the 12 zodiac animals this year. They will encounter plenty of gui ren – helpful people – who will help them realise their plans. Tigers should take advantage of the momentum and explore different possibilities. It will be a good time to start a business.
They are also lucky in love this year. For those seeking a relationship, seize the opportunities and enjoy the many pleasant romantic encounters.
“Widening their social circle not only brings them unexpected rewards but also boosts their overall luck in the year,” Yunwenzi explains.
But she reminds the tigers not to be arrogant and opinionated, as having good fortune does not necessarily mean all their actions are without consequences. For those who frequently attend social events, try not to overeat or else risk suffering from cardiovascular diseases.
Rabbit
The Year of the Ox is good for those born under the Rabbit sign. Everything will be quite rosy and they will be able to bounce back from rock bottom. Filled with positivity and optimism, this is a good year for them to set goals and go in new directions.
However, unlike the tigers, there are not many gui ren around for the rabbits and they pretty much have to rely on themselves to get things done. At work, their effort will be recognised by their superior and there might be a chance of promotion.
Romance is also in the air for the rabbits – but mind that large age gap. Patience and mutual understanding are needed if they want to establish a strong relationship.
The rabbit should avoid strenuous exercise to prevent injuries to the limbs.
Dragon
A stable and average year ahead for those born in the Year of the Dragon: their career will come to a standstill, which will make them doubt their working abilities. Yet, a twist of fate is expected after mid-autumn so it’s worth waiting for the opportunity to present itself.
Although dragons will have many romantic encounters this year, they may still end up unsatisfied as they are not devoting much time to nurture their relationship(s). Their impulsiveness also means they easily fall in love with the wrong person.
The dragon will have a weak lung this year, associated with respiratory diseases. They may also be prone to bad skin.
Snake
It will be a year filled with both fortune and risk for snakes. Since you will be surrounded by people, unexpected opportunities will arise from your growing social network.
“Their rising popularity may also attract people who speak with a ‘forked tongue’. They should work more and talk less. Their hard work will pay off,” says Yunwenzi.
Unmarried snakes will stay single this year because they are too picky. They are advised to lower their requirements when looking for a partner.
Beware of health problems such as spinal disc hernia, frozen shoulder and bony spur.
Horse
This will be a roller coaster year for those born in the Year of the Horse. Their long-awaited plans will be postponed or even halted due to unexpected variables, but as the saying goes, “amid every crisis lies a great opportunity”, and career opportunities will arise during the winter.
They should stay calm and sincerely tackle difficulties faced by their colleagues and company. This will gain their boss’s trust and confidence in them.
Apart from work, sincerity is also key to success in relationships. Just be true to yourself and the right person will be attracted by your charisma. Beware of eye and head problems; headaches and dizziness may occur frequently throughout the year.
Sheep
Those born in the Year of the Sheep should expect a difficult and challenging year. They will face a lot of obstacles in all aspects of life. The Year of the Ox is not one for them to make any important decisions such as starting a business or changing jobs as their mind might be clouded with confusion.
The sheep should stop finding excuses and acting like an otaku. Actively expanding and engaging in their social circles will bring them romantic luck.
“This is a Xing Tai Sui year for sheep, which means that they should also care for their safety as it is foreseen that they may have traffic accidents within the year,” warns Yunwenzi.
Monkey
The monkey foresees a flourishing year full of opportunities and good fortune. They should be receptive to new ideas and seize golden opportunities. They will get help from a female gui ren which will help them get better results.
They will also have a breakthrough in their career. They will easily get approval from their boss and promotion is on the horizon. For those who wish to start their own business, it is a good year to test the water by setting up a low-cost online business.
Monkeys will also have a fruitful social life this year. They will have opportunities to make new friends who have charming personalities. Thanks to the monkey’s attractiveness and social popularity, sparks may fly. It is wise for monkeys to make their intentions clear from the start to avoid ambiguous signals that could damage their reputation and friendships.
Kidney deficiency is likely to emerge in the Year of the Ox. They should also be aware of lower back pain.
Rooster
Roosters will have better fortune this year. This will be a “learning year” for them so they should stop being passive and start actively fighting for opportunities. Although the outcome may be unexpected or unsatisfying, each challenge is a golden learning opportunity.
The rooster also receives blessings from Wen Chang, the god that oversees the intelligence and wisdom of mortals. They should use their time for further studies.
People born under the sign of the rooster will not have much luck in love this year. They may feel tired and lose interest in searching for love. The rooster will not suffer from any major health problems this year, though they are prone to catching minor infections.
Dog
The dog is looking at a troubling year ahead as, like those born in the Year of the Sheep, they will go through a Xing Tai Sui year. It will result in an unstable year filled with trouble and difficulties in relationships. Brace yourselves for the worst during the middle of the year.
Accumulated stress means dogs may lose their temper. Bad fortune will come knocking with all that pent-up negativity.
They will also not have any luck in relationships this year. They should choose their partner wisely and only start a relationship when they have a better understanding of their lover. Dogs should also look after their mental health. Poor stress-induced sleep quality will increase the risk of developing mental illness such as depression.
Pig
Fortune shines on the pigs this year. They are always at their best and are quick-witted. They should attend more social gatherings to broaden their network and develop new job and business opportunities. Pigs could also set a more ambitious goal this year.
Those born in the Year of the Pig may be attracted to a number of people simultaneously, and this could even develop into multiple affairs. The complicated relationships will harm their hopes for romance in the long run.
Their health is hugely improved this year, and there is no major health problem predicted.
Rat
After experiencing a terrible Year of the Rat, those born under this animal zodiac sign will see a boost in their fortunes. But they must be persistent and persevere as their luck will remain average for the first half of the year.
They are advised not to set their goals too high but keep their feet on the ground and be prepared to face any challenges. They will be able to achieve their goals in the second half of 2021.
The rat tends to be indecisive in relationships. They lack security when it comes to love, especially when potential new partners emerge on the horizon. It will make them passive and unable to devote themselves to maintaining the relationship, which will not last.
They have a weak reproductive system this year. A regular check-up is advised.

#雲文子 #奇門遁甲 #風水 #玄學天后

【お金を使う時に持っておいた方がいい判断基準】

　

３日ほど前、映画『えんとつ町のプペル』のムービーチケットを応募者全員にプレゼントするキャンペーンをスタートさせて、すでに4万名を超える応募があったんです。

これを受けて、「電通すごい」とか「東宝ヤバイ」とか「吉本本気」といった声がチョイチョイあるのですが、西野の名誉の為に言わせていただくと、これ、別に、電通さんや東宝さんや吉本興業といった大きな会社が推し進めている企画ではなくて、【西野亮廣】が個人でやっているんです。

忘れられないように、もう一度言いますが、これは「西野の自腹」なんです。

その自腹が、現時点で「チケット代×40000人」です。
適当に計算してみてください。

ちなみに今日もまだ募集しているので(ヤケクソ！)、ここから、まだ増えると思うのですが、個人で払うには結構な額だと思います。

　
応募はコチラまで→https://poupelle.com/

　
　
今日は、この買い物が「高い」か「安い」かを考えたいと思います。

　
僕はこんな仕事をしているので、必ず予算の問題がつきまとうんですね。

個展をする時なんかは、基本、当初の予算を二周りぐらい上回るので、よく会社が死にかけているんですけど、そんな活動をずっとしていると見えてくるお金のルールがあります。

それは……

「お金は上手に使うと、動かせる額が大きくなる」

ということです。

　
なので、プロジェクトを受け持っている後輩（つまり予算内でプロジェクトを遂行しなけれないけない立場にある人間）には、「お金を貯めるな。積極的に上手く使え」といっています。

ゴールは彼らが取り扱うプロジェクトが大きくなって、彼らが大きな影響力を手にいれて、彼らがたくさんの人を楽しませて、たくさんの人を助けることなので動かせる予算は大きい方がいい。

そんなことを踏まえて、今回の炎の自腹企画「映画『えんとつ町のプペル』のムービーチケットを応募者全員にプレゼントするキャンペーン」が高かったか安かったか……というところなんですけども、「ちょっと分からない」です。

ぶっちゃけ、まだ分からない（笑）

高い買い物になるかもしれないし、安い買い物になるかもしれないし、「どっちにでも転ぶなぁ」といったところです。

一つ確かなことは、「どっちかには転ぶ」というところですね。

これが凄い大事だと思っていて、「どっちにも転ばない買い物」ってあるじゃないですか？
現代において、これが一番無駄遣いだと思っています。

ここにきて、ようやくクラウドファンディングが一般化しました。
#毎度おせーよ

　
要するに、「心意気」みたいなものが買われやすくなった。
世の中の為にとか、皆を楽しませる為に、「バーン！」とお金を出して、「死んだ〜！」とチャーミングに言えたら、「もう、しょうがねぇな」みたいな感じで助け舟を出してくれる人が出てくる。
出てきやすくなった。

もちろんチャーミングでコーティングするというのが大前提ですが、派手に転ぶと、ここの関係が買えるので、その買い物はそこまで高くない。

一方で、どっちにも転ばない選択って、安全策のようで、まわりが助け舟を出す機会を切り落としているので、ちょっと高い。

　

ここから少し本質的な話になるんですが、基本的に「教育」というのはコケないようにアテンドしていくじゃないですか。
「自立できる人間が正解」みたいなノリで。

実は、それって今の時代、結構なリスクだなぁと思っていて、今、どう考えたって、一人で戦う人間よりも、まわりが助けたくなる人間の方が強い。

予算も集まるし、知識も知恵も集まる。
「教育」というものに、オンライン互助の仕組みが組み込まれていないのは、結構、致命的だと思っています。

仕事柄いろんな人と会いますが、一人で生きている人の知識量って絶望的です。

自分の脳ミソに情報を入れてくれる人が自分一人しかいないのは、かなり分が悪い。
知識だけじゃなくて、お金の問題もそうなのですが、やっぱ「助け舟を出したくなるヤツ」が、今、圧倒的に強い。

　
話を戻します。そして、一言でまとめます。

お金を使う時の判断基準として、「高い」「安い」以外に、「この使い方は、助け舟を出したくなるのか否か」という基準を持っておいた方がいいと思います。

西野亮廣(キングコング)

▼西野亮廣の最新のエンタメビジネスに関する記事(1記事=2000~3000文字)が毎朝読めるのはオンラインサロン(ほぼメルマガ)はコチラ↓
https://salon.jp/nishino
[the judgement standards that you should have when you use money]

　

About 3 days ago, I started a campaign to present the movie ticket of the movie ′′ a in town ′′ to all the applicants, and there was already over 4 million applications.

With This, there is a voice that says ′′ Dentsu amazing ′′ and ′′ Toho crazy ′′ and ′′ Yoshimoto serious," but if you let me say it for the honor of nishino, it's not dentsu-San and toho-San It's not a plan that a big company such as yoshimoto kogyo is pushing, but ′′ Ryo Nishino ′′ is doing it personally.

I'll say it again so I can't forget, but this is ′′ Nishino's streamline

The Streamline is ′′ ticket teenager x 40000 people ′′ at the moment.
Try to calculate it properly.

By the way, I'm still hiring today, so (desperation! ), I think it's still going to increase from here, but I think it's a pretty good amount to pay personally.

　
APPLY HERE → https://poupelle.com/

　
　
Today, I would like to think about whether this shopping is ′′ expensive ′′ or ′′ cheap

　
I'm working like this, so I'm sure to have a budget problem.

When you do a solo exhibition, the basics, the first budget is about two around the corner, so the company is often dying, but there is a rule of money that you see that you are going to be able to do such an activity.

It's......

′′ when you use money well, the amount you can move will be bigger ′′

That's what it means.

　
So, for juniors who have a project (that is, people who are in position to have to perform a project in the budget)," don't save money. I'm going to use it positively

The goal is that the project they handle is bigger, and they have a big influence, and they make fun of a lot of people, and help a lot of people, so the budget that can move is better.

Based on such a thing, this time's flame streamline project ′′ the campaign to present the movie ticket of the movie ′′ a town ′′ to all the applicants ′′ was expensive or cheap...... but," I don't know a bit

I still don't know what to do lol

It might be a high shopping, and it might be a cheap shopping, and it's about to fall in both of them,"

One thing for sure is," it's going to fall in either way,"

I think this is really important, isn't it ′′ shopping that doesn't fall in either,"
In Modern times, I think this is the most waste.

Here we come, crowdfunding has finally become general.
#毎度おせーよ

　
In other words, something like ′′ Spirit ′′ has become easier to buy.
For the world, to entertain everyone, I put money out with ′′ barn!" and ′′ dead!" and I'm charming," I feel like I'm going to have a good time," I'm not going to be able to do it anymore," The one who will give me a favor is coming out.
It's easier to come out.

Of course it's a charming coating, but when you fall fancy, you can buy the relationship here, so the shopping is not expensive.

Meanwhile, the choice that doesn't fall in either is like a safety plan, and it's a bit expensive because it's cutting off the opportunity to put out the help around.

　

It's going to be a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of a bit of
With Nori like ′′ Independent people are correct

Actually, it's a lot of risk in the current era, and now I think about it, and the people who want to help around me are stronger than the people who fight alone.

Budgets come together, knowledge and wisdom gather.
′′ Education ′′ is pretty deadly that the workings of online mutual assistance are not built in.

I meet all kinds of people at work, but the knowledge of people living alone is hopeless.

It's pretty bad that there's only one person who can put information in my brain.
It's not just knowledge, it's also a problem of money, but the ′′ one who makes you want to put out a favor ′′ is now overwhelmingly strong.

　
I'll bring back the story. And I'll put it together in one word.

As a standard of judgement when using money, besides ′′ high ′′ and ′′ cheap "" I think it's better to have the standard of ′′ how to use this to make a favor,"

Ryo Nishino (King Kong)

▼ an article about the latest entertainment business of ryo nishino (1 articles = 2000 to 3000 characters) can be read every morning online salon (almost mail magazine) is here ↓
https://salon.jp/nishinoTranslated

【#TheDiplomat🌍】難得The Diplomat讀者對香港有興趣：

The series of iron-fisted moves last month in Hong Kong may seem sudden to international observers: Hong Kong government’s earlier reinterpretation of the China-Hong Kong relationship, the election of a pro-Beijing legislator to be a Legislative Council chair through a controversial mechanism, and Beijing’s recent decision to impose a national security law on Hong Kong. The desire to bring Hong Kong under the banner of “one country, one system” is not impulsive. Quite the contrary, it’s a calculated campaign to initiate a so-called “second reunification with Hong Kong” — since the first reunification after the handover, using a lenient soft-power approach, has supposedly failed.

What are Beijing’s calculations that motivate this bold campaign now? And more important, will the campaign work?

While I remain highly skeptical of solely applying the realist framework to study Hong Kong, Beijing’s mentality is nonetheless entirely realism-driven. It is therefore essential to use this lens to understand more of their thoughts.

COVID-19: A Golden Opportunity on the International Stage?

To start with, the coronavirus pandemic seems to have created an ideal backdrop for Beijing to push forward its iron-fisted policy toward Hong Kong. The West has been devastated by the pandemic, more so than China, and has been slower to recover economically. Instead of decoupling from China, Beijing thinks the West is desperate for an influx of Chinese capital and markets. This notion encourages Beijing to pursue brinkmanship, in the form of confrontative “wolf warrior diplomacy,” its escalation of sharp power, and, most recently, Hong Kong’s national security law. As long as the international community does not put their condemnation into action, Beijing will keep pushing the envelope.

Beijing is convinced that the chambers of commerce representing other countries in Hong Kong will always place profits above all else as long as the national security law does not threaten them. Business deals struck at the crucial moment can entice foreign businesses to use their lobby teams in their home countries in Beijing’s favor.

Although anti-China sentiment has become more mainstream, Beijing, the major beneficiary of globalization in the past two decades, has tied its destiny with various elites internationally. These “friends of China” can be swayed to safeguard Beijing’s interests, but the up-and-coming leaders in many countries look less friendly. Therefore, the window of opportunity for Beijing to act is closing before the new value-driven generation comes to power.

The Lack of Incentive Behind the U.S. and U.K.’s Escalating Rhetoric

While U.S. politicians from left to right are vocal against China, their ultimate goal, Beijing believes, is to win votes in the November election. They would hence avoid hurting the interest groups they represent and go easy on actions aiming to punish China, such as denying Hong Kong’s status as a separate customs territory, sanctioning Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or escalating the trade war.

Even though the Trump administration is ramping up the rhetoric to sanction China, protecting Hong Kong’s autonomy is not one of the United States’ core interests. In contrast, having control over Hong Kong is China’s core interest. Beijing would rather make concessions over other disputes with Washington in exchange for claiming victory in Hong Kong for its internal propaganda.

Britain, the co-signer of the Joint Declaration for Hong Kong’s handover, is arguably most entitled to denounce Beijing’s violation, which would give mandates to the United States to act. But Beijing is convinced that Britain, not as powerful as it used to be, will not make such a move. Beijing’s recent plans to withdraw businesses from the United States and list them in the London stock market is a move to place a wedge between the two powers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateralism and his harsh stance against U.S. allies also strengthens Beijing’s conviction that the West will not follow the United States’ lead.

Beijing’s Divide and Conquer Strategy in Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s parliament, the Legislative Council (LegCo), is a major roadblock to Beijing’s control, as demonstrated twice since the handover — in 2003 when the national security law was first introduced and in 2019 with the anti-extradition legislation that sparked city-wide protests. In both setbacks, Beijing lost control when moderate pro-establishment legislators broke away from the party line in the face of public outcry. As the September LegCo election approaches, the last thing Beijing wants is for the election to become a de facto referendum on the single issue of the national security law, which could result in another landslide win for the democratic parties. The law would be untenable to the international community if it’s opposed by both pro-democracy voters, which according to polls account for 60 percent of the votes, and moderate pro-establishment voters.

The moderates, despite their reluctance to embrace hardline rule in Hong Kong, differ from the more militant faction within the non-establishment camp in that the former rejects the so-called “mutual destruction” option, which risks Hong Kong’s special trade status — its economic lifeline — as a bargaining tactic to force Beijing to back off. Now that Washington is considering withdrawing Hong Kong’s privileges, the possibility of mutual destruction is becoming real. As Beijing has been promoting a narrative that all supporters of the protest movement’s “Five Demands” are bringing about mutual destruction, Beijing hopes the moderates, in fear of losing their financial assets, might turn toward the establishment.

On the other hand, the pro-democracy camp is at risk of breaking apart. Moderate pro-democracy supporters have been going to rallies to keep up with the political momentum. However, marches with more than a million participants would be impossible under the current oppressive environment. For example, the authorities abuse COVID-19 social distancing measures to suppress rallies, permits for peaceful protests are increasingly difficult to obtain, pro-establishment businesses heavily censored the social media activities of employees, and outspoken individuals are often cyberbullied.

Without support from the moderates, some within the pro-democracy camp may radicalize, as Beijing expects. The radicalization would fit Beijing’s tactic of painting protests as separatism and terrorism, justifying the imposition of the national security law. The trajectory would be similar to Beijing’s handling of the 1959 Tibetan “riots,” during which Mao Zedong’s directive was “the more chaotic the scene, the better.”

The Nationalistic Agenda to Divert Domestic Attention

But after all, to Beijing, Hong Kong is not just Hong Kong. In the wake of the pandemic, Beijing urgently needs to uphold nationalism to divert unwanted attention from its economic crisis. That includes a global propaganda campaign to promote its triumph over COVID-19. Upgrading the Hong Kong protests to a national security issue — as a battle against foreign interference to complete the “reunification with Hong Kong” — best suits the nationalist atmosphere. The all-time low sense of belonging with China among the new generation in Hong Kong further justifies a strong-arm approach. The success of the strategy would offer a way to reunite with Taiwan, which would consolidate Xi’s leadership within the Communist Party.

Also, including the Hong Kong issue as part of the national agenda means that the Hong Kong government, which has already lost its will to govern, will dance to Beijing’s tunes.

This comprehensive crackdown on Hong Kong’s civil society is unprecedented. Beijing believes that the heavy-handed approach would pervade Hong Kong with a sense of powerlessness and bring it to its knees. As long as the international response is limited, the execution of the national security law, according to Chairman Mao’s “theory of contradiction,” will follow a script of “a soft hand” and “a firm hand.” That is, after its imposition, the law will initially apply restraint and be used only on individuals to set a stern example, so that the general public would feel as if the law does not impact them at all and property and stock prices would not fall. Gradually and subtly, if the realist formula of Beijing works, the “second reunification” could become a self-proclaimed success story for Beijing’s propaganda.

However, Beijing’s evaluations are not foolproof. Any single miscalculation could lead to a contradictory outcome for the People’s Republic of China. Is it really prepared?

▶️ 國安法：中國的現實主義框架
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjhRbV8qTgo
⏺ 中美夏威夷峰會
https://www.patreon.com/posts/38378214