關於 one billion rising ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

【近日股市資金行情之我見】

這兩個月忙著跨海搬家，沒太多時間寫長文。這篇文章從今年1月斷斷續續寫到現在，主要嘗試回答兩個問題：

1. 2021年初是否存在市場過熱現象？

2. 美國政府2020年的瘋狂印鈔行為（參見下圖）是否會引發嚴重通貨膨脹？投資人應該如何因應？



首先關於第一個問題，在今年2月份我們看到美國股市的option契約數量大增，從19M/每日增加至30M/每日；SPACs形式2020年增加200件，募資$74B；GME軋空炒作行情。

這樣是否存在擦鞋童現象？

這部分我想先回顧17世紀荷蘭鬱金香投機事件。

傳說當年荷蘭鬱金香莖球被瘋狂炒作，價格上漲幾百倍，荷蘭舉國人民紛紛陷入投機熱潮，甚至20世紀德國知名投資客柯斯多蘭尼稱當年有駝背侏儒光是出租其後背供投資客們寫上最金莖球價格，然後穿梭人群中賺了一小筆。

隨後鬱金香莖球炒作泡沫破裂，荷蘭國家經濟受到重創，進而影響當年曾是海上商業王國的地位。

然而史實是如此嗎？

美國經濟學家Peter Garber專門研究此一投機炒作的經濟史，並寫下幾篇著名論文。而依據其著作"Famous First Bubbles The Fundamentals of Early Manias" 一書，我整理幾個重點：

1. 實際上鬱金香熱潮時間相當短，價格明顯彈升發生在1636年11月～1637年1月份。

2. 參與人數總共約350人，全是職業商人；真正支付高價（超過300荷蘭盾）者約莫10人，多數人其實是透過遠期合約的方式進行炒作，而最後多以違約拒絕真實支付現金，直到荷蘭當地鬱金香相關商會與政府出面介入，才以履約價格的10%甚至5%方式解除合約。

3. 非常昂貴的品種，如Semper Augustus 的真實漲幅只有5倍（從原本的1千出頭荷蘭盾漲至5千多），並非都市傳說中幾百倍的漲幅。

漲幅較大的主要是那些本來就平價的品種，例如Gouda buds，起漲價格約２荷蘭盾，最高價50多荷蘭頓。即便存在瘋漲，但至多也是一、二十倍，這即便放在現代農產品供需失調時的價格軌跡來比較，也並不離奇。例如台灣颱風後的香菜價格漲幅。

這邊可以題外話說明為何Semper Augustus這品種售價昂貴。因為這特殊品種本不存在於大自然，而是農夫必須將快開花的鬱金香球莖人工嫁接罹患某種病毒的鬱金香，才能開出特殊花色。而這種嫁接病毒的球莖將會死亡，不再具備繁衍後代的能力。此外，嫁接後的成功率在當年也並不高，不保證存活也不保證開出特殊花色。

物以稀為貴下使得Semper Augustus這品種本來售價就高昂，是一般品種的百倍。

讀者可參見以下幾張當年不同品種的價格走勢圖：

4. 也因為這個事件的範圍與熱潮都比傳說中小得多，因此並未對實質荷蘭資本市場或經濟體造成多少負面影響。

荷蘭鬱金香泡沫事件有三點啟示：

a. 即便在當年差不多時期的著作、媒體都有對其瘋狂投機炒作的描述，但實證來看誇大成分居多。很可能受到作家喜歡站在道德高點批判投機行為的習慣影響，但做為投資人或經濟史研究者在考據曾經的泡沫事件，始終必須以事實為依歸。

b. 小範圍小規模的投機炒作，無論價格哄抬得多麼高聳入天，事實是「毀約」始終是一種選項，有行無市的價格不存在經濟學意義。

c. 同樣地，小範圍小規模的投機炒作，無論價格哄抬得多麼高聳入天，對整體經濟乃至於資本市場的影響同樣不會太大。這意味著我們雖然應該警醒擦鞋童現象，但也無需杯弓蛇影。

如同我在去年幾篇文章中談到的，我認為Covid-19疫情本身造成的經濟損害遠不如人為的隔離措施所造成。目前看到的全世界生產力衰退，人禍成分高過天災。但與2009年不同之處在於：

「Personal savings soared as high as 33.7% in April following the Cares Act and were still a healthy 13.7% in December before Congress passed another $900 billion in Covid aid. This means that, unlike during the 2009 recession, households aren’t weighed down by debt.
Personal bankruptcies, home foreclosures and loan delinquencies last fall were the lowest since at least 2003. The mortgage delinquency rate was 0.7% in the third quarter of 2020 compared to 7% in the first quarter of 2009. ...」

出自Wrong Stimulus, Wrong Time - WSJ （ Feb. 5, 2021）報導。

因此在我看來，此文撰寫的時間點，雖然多多少少某些類股上存在擦鞋童現象，投資人不必過度擔憂。投資人真正該做好未雨綢繆準備的，是美國瘋狂印鈔下必然到來的嚴重通貨膨脹。

問題二：通貨膨脹下股票標的如何選擇？

高資產或高負債的公司在嚴重通膨時期的股價表現優於高現金部位的公司。在經濟學大師Armen A. Alchian 1965年的論文 "Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices "中，特別指出傳統經濟學如凱因斯、費雪等著名學者之見認為銀行身為典型債務人，在通貨膨脹環境下應該有較好的股價表現。而Alchian則點出這些學者大老忽略銀行雖然集債務於一身（大眾存款之於銀行就是債務），然而銀行受限於法規與現實，其資產多是「現金資產（money-type assets）」，故在嚴重通貨膨脹影響下，銀行實際經濟損失大過通膨泡沫所得，股價表現當然好不到哪去。

Alchian此文對我的啟發甚大，揭櫫面對貨幣因素影響甚大時的投資方向。

但我們要知道Armen Alchian的論文寫作時期與如今的投資環境又有幾個重大侷限條件之不同，因此我們不能生吞活剝地硬套Alchian的觀點，而是必須真實理解背後隱含的正確經濟學邏輯，並依據當今侷限條件之不同而修改並應用。

引入費雪的利息理論與張五常的財富倉庫概念，現今世界何謂資產、何謂債權債務、何謂現金？我們必須要能超脫會計學、法學的思維侷限，而從真正在投資決策上有效益的經濟學角度切入。

一個我認為值得投資人注意的重點是：投資人對於高商譽（goodwill）的公司能否有正確地、在經濟學層面的深度理解與評價機制。

這點同樣也適用在面對新科技寵兒如電動車之流之正確價格評估。

以長期投資角度看，如果以夠低的成本入手高資產或高品牌價值公司，本身部位又很大，則隨後的股市大幅修正甚至崩盤基本可以無視

如果部位不大，則可以視隨後散戶瘋狂狀況逐漸增加現金部位。

回到現實面，我認為通膨現象確實在發生，有兩個現象值得注意：

a. 機構法人買入加密貨幣的金流增加

「...JPMorgan, said the size of the bitcoin market had grown to equal about a fifth of gold held for investment and trading purposes, with a market capitalisation for the cryptocurrency of $750bn at its peak earlier this year, meaning it “is far from a niche asset class”. 」

「...Analysts at Canadian insurance company Manulife said in late January that the expansion in central banks’ balance sheets and rising public debt would push investors further into alternative asset classes ...」

「...Xangle showing that investors have lost more than $16bn to fraud since 2012 ...」

b. 近日美國美國前25大銀行對私人之貸款佔總資產比例從去年54.1%下降之45.7%，且放在Fed reserve account總金額達$3.15兆美元。

（The 25 largest U.S. banks currently hold 45.7% of their assets in loans and leases, according to Fed data released Friday, down from 54.1% this time last year. .. reserve balances in their Federal Reserve depository accounts at sky-high levels, $3.15 trillion at present
）

通膨現象將會更嚴重，因為「...According to a recent House Budget Committee estimate, $1 trillion from last year’s bills hasn’t been spent—including $59 billion for schools, $239 billion for health care and $452 billion in small business loans. State and local governments added 67,000 jobs in January. They don’t need more federal cash. ...」
WSJ "wrong-stimulus-wrong-time " Feb. 5, 2021

如同我在「論比特幣」一文中闡述過：比特幣顯然不是被當作交易貨幣而是某種無根財富倉庫，因此其價格之暴漲暴跌均同時具備「合理與不合理」之雙面性。因為不存在適當的評價方式去推估其價格之合理性。

但在此文我想進一步指出，從另一層面來看，這種無根倉庫的價格變動本身卻可提供我們對於貨幣因素下真實通貨膨脹的現狀診斷。這好比我們切脈在左關中層把得一數滑脈，搭配右關心位或肝位的脈相，或胃經、肝經或經外奇穴的壓痛診斷，或舌診眼診等等訊息，我們可以推知患者是肝臟、胰臟有惡性腫瘤亦或慢性胃潰瘍。

比特幣的暴漲本身也是一個類似性質的市場訊號。

換言之，當我們把貨幣看做經濟體的血液/體液時，投資人懂不懂得把經濟的脈？是否可以從貨幣的脈相得知經濟血液/體液的品質、健康度、病理變異方向程度與進程...等等。當我們脈診上發現血液/體液堆積於某經絡時，我們看到某類型資產價格飛漲甚至軋空時，診斷者有沒有能力正確推測隨後的、不同時間點地病程發展與相對應的症狀發作？

中美貿易戰框架與因應Covid-19疫情的政府舉措則是結構性地在解剖學層面改變經濟體本身，所需要的制度經濟學知識又是否足夠投資人能趨吉避凶甚或從中獲利？

這些都是參與投資市場者必須時時捫心自問的問題。

我文末再強調一次：美國主要銀行減少對私人企業放款而增加手中政府債券這現象。

參考：

Financial Times "Bitcoin boom backstopped by central banks’ easy-money policies" 2021/2/4

Financial Times "US mortgage executives forecast a $3tn year in 2021 " 2021/01/08

WSJ "For One GameStop Trader, the Wild Ride Was Almost as Good as the Enormous Payoff " 2021/02/03

Armen A. Alchian, "Effects of Inflation Upon Stock Prices" (1965)

Peter M. Garber, Famous First Bubbles The Fundamentals of Early Manias (2000）

WSJ, "Fed Policy Is Smothering Private Lending" (2021/03/08)

文章連結：
https://ppt.cc/f7YCNx

［時事英文］彩券是一種窮人稅 (a tax on the poor)？
　
最近看到多家媒體報導鼓勵大家支持「公益」彩券，就聯想到之前看過的一些彩券報導。雖然每個國家的彩券發行的法律、收益的分紅和管理規範都不盡相同，還是可以參考以下美國多家知名報社關於美國彩券的社論。根據西方的經驗，購買彩券的人大多是低收入戶，他們將微薄的收入用來買「公益」彩券，窮人的錢成為彩券的主要財源，因此，公益彩券反而像變相的「窮人稅」。彩券是否如迷幻藥般，使部分窮人更窮？值得大家深思。
　
從社會與心理層面看臺灣「樂透瘋」公聽會：https://bit.ly/30W6mpJ

★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
The lottery is a particularly awful example of political corruption. Here government is raising revenue by selling the Powerball dream of wealth without work. Studies in a number of states have shown that lottery ticket sales are concentrated in poor communities, that poor people spend a larger portion of their income on tickets and that the poor are more likely to view the lottery as an investment.
　
1. political corruption 政治腐敗
2. raise revenue 提高收入
3. Powerball 威力球（美國境內發行的彩券）
4. dream of wealth 財富的夢想
5. more likely to 更傾向於
　
彩券是政治腐敗的一個特別可怕的例子。政府藉由兜售威力球一夜致富的夢來增加國家的稅收。許多州的研究表明，彩券的銷售集中在貧困社區，窮人將多數收入花在彩券上，而窮人更傾向於將彩券視為一種投資。
　
——《華盛頓郵報》
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
Lotteries are regressive taxes on poor people, in that a ticket costs relatively more for a poor person than a rich person, and punitive taxes on the poor and uneducated people who are the most avid buyers. The people who can least afford it are throwing away on average 47 cents on the dollar every time they buy a ticket. And the government, which relies increasingly on the lottery for funding, goes out of its way to tell them it is a good idea.
　
6. relatively more 相對更多
7. most avid buyers 最狂熱的買家
8. go out of one’s way（特別是為其他人）非常努力地做
9. punitive taxes 懲罰性賦稅
　
彩券是對窮人的累退稅，也是對那些醉心於購買且未受過教育的窮人之懲罰性賦稅。因為與富人相比，買彩券所付出的成本對窮人而言相對較高。那些負擔得起彩券的人，平均每次要花４７美分購買彩券。政府愈來愈依賴彩券來籌措資金，並竭盡全力告訴他們這是個好主意。
　
——《商業內幕》
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
What if I told you there was a $70 billion tax that the poor pay the most. You'd probably say that isn't very fair. But that's exactly what the lottery is: an almost 12-figure tax on the desperation of the least fortunate. To put that in perspective, that's $300 worth of lottery tickets for every adult every year. Researchers have found that the bottom third of households buy more than half of all tickets. So that means households making less than $28,000 a year are dishing out $450 a year on lotteries.
　
10. a 12-figure tax 一個１２位數的稅
11. the least fortunate 最不幸的
12. worth of… 值得⋯
13. dish out 祭出；拿出
14. What if...? 如果（尤指糟糕的情況出現）會怎麼樣？
　
如果我告訴你，在７００億美元的稅收中窮人付出的最多，你會怎麼想？你可能會說這不太公平。但這就是彩券：對最不幸者的絕望徵收近１２位數的稅。從這個角度來看，那對每位成年人來說是每年價值３００美元的彩券。研究人員發現，最底層的三分之一家庭所購買的彩票超過總數的一半。這意味著年收入不足兩萬八千美元的家庭，每年要花４５０美元來買彩券。
　
——《華盛頓郵報》
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
Historical data implies that when the economy goes bad, lottery revenues go up, because "when people are feeling desperate, they are more likely to stop by the gas station and buy five lottery tickets, hoping they get a big windfall.”
　
15. historical data 歷史數據
16. feel desperate 感到絕望
17. get a big windfall 獲得巨額、意外的收穫
　
歷史數據表明，每當經濟不景氣，彩券收入會增加，因為「每當人們感到絕望，他們更有可能在加油站前停下來，買五張彩券，並希望自己能獲得巨額的財富。」
　
——《ＡＢＣ新聞》
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
In 2008, during the height of the recession, at least 22 of the 42 states with lotteries — including New York, New Jersey and Connecticut — set sales records.
　
18. height of the recession 經濟衰退的高點
19. set sales record 創下銷售記錄
　
２００８年，時值經濟衰退的谷底，在４２個有賣彩券的州中，至少有２２個州——包括紐約州、紐澤西州和康乃狄克州——創下銷售記錄。
　
——《紐約時報》
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
Lotteries are sometimes criticized as a "de facto tax on the poor," according to Matheson. "The poor spend a much higher percentage of their overall income on lotteries than the rich, and they can afford it less," he said. John Spry, a finance professor at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota, has also studied the economic disparity among people who play instant scratch-off games. About three out of four instant game tickets sold in Minnesota are purchased by people with below-average incomes, according to Spry. He also cites research that shows that in South Carolina, 60% of instant lottery tickets were purchased by people with very low incomes.
　
20. a de facto tax on the poor 一種對窮人的實質賦稅
21. overall income 總收入
22. economic disparity 經濟差異；經濟失衡（國際法名詞）
23. below-average incomes 低於平均水準的所得
　
按馬特森所言，彩券有時被批評為「對窮人的實質賦稅」。他說：「窮人在彩券上的花費占總收入的比例遠比富人高出許多，而他們所能負擔的也更少。」明尼蘇達州聖湯瑪斯大學的財金系教授約翰・斯普里也研究了玩即時刮刮樂的人之間的經濟差異。根據斯普里的說法，在明尼蘇達州售出的四張即時刮刮樂中，約有三張是由收入低於平均水準的人購買。他還引用了一項研究，該研究表明，在南卡羅來納有６０％的即時彩券是被收入很低的人買走。
　
——《ＣＮＮ》
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
Think on this a moment. In a place where government has utterly failed to provide adequate education and public services, government is using advertising to exploit the desperation of poor people in order to raise revenue that funds other people’s public services. This is often called a “regressive” form of taxation. The word does not adequately capture the cruelty and crookedness of selling a lie to vulnerable people in order to bilk them. Offering the chance of one in a 100 million is the equivalent of a lie. Lotteries depend on the deceptive encouragement of mythical thinking and fantasies of escape.
　
24. utterly fail to 徹底地失敗
25. fail to provide 無法提供
26. adequate education and public services 充分的教育與公共服務
27. exploit the desperation of poor people 利用窮人的絕望
28. fund public services 資助公共服務
29. a regressive form of taxation 一種累退的賦稅形式
30. sell a lie 兜售一個謊言
31. vulnerable people 弱勢群體
32. mythical thinking 不切實際的想像
33. fantasy of escape 逃避的幻想
　
試想一下，在政府完全無法提供足夠的教育與公共服務的地方，為了提高國家稅收以資助他人的公共服務，政府正運用廣告來利用窮人的絕望。這通常被稱作「累退」的賦稅形式。這個詞並未充分體現出，政府為了欺騙弱勢群體，向他們兜售謊言此一殘酷與奸詐。提供億分之一的機會即形同說謊。彩券所仰賴的是不切實際與逃避現實的幻想，帶有欺騙性的鼓勵。
　
——《華盛頓郵報》
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
Some policymakers argue that the moral cost of lotteries is low. After all, the games are voluntary. And perhaps the money collected by the state is better off going to schools than to booze and cigarettes and whatever else. In an age of rising income inequality, it’s pernicious that states rely on monetizing the desperate hope of its poorest residents. State lotteries take from the poor to spare the rich, all while marching under the banner of voluntary entertainment. Banning lotto games will not make our poorest communities suddenly rich. But these neighborhoods have lost enough lotteries in life even before they touch a penny to the scratch-off ticket.
　
34. moral cost 道德成本
35. be better off 境況更好；經濟狀況較先前（或多數人）好
36. rising income inequality日益加劇的所得不均
37. take from the poor to spare the rich 劫貧濟富
38. under the banner of 以⋯⋯的名義；在⋯⋯的旗幟下
39. voluntary entertainment 自願性娛樂
40. a scratch-off ticket 一張刮刮樂
　
有些制定政策的人認為，彩券的道德成本很低。畢竟，那些都是自願的博弈。而且，由州政府收取資金並將之用於各級學校，也許比用在喝酒、抽菸或其他東西上都來得好。在一個所得不均日益加劇的時代，各州將貧困居民僅存的希望貨幣化，無疑是有害的。國家彩券劫貧濟富，以自願性娛樂的名義推進。禁止博彩遊戲並不會讓我們最貧窮的社區突然變得富有。但這些社區甚至連刮刮樂的一毛錢都沒贏過，卻已眼睜睜輸掉數量可觀的彩券。
　
——《大西洋》
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
今政府開辦之彩券販售，雖係有法令依據的合法行為，其販售權力也優先給予殘障弱勢者，每年所獲盈餘也多用在公益事業或挹注部分運動項目，不可謂沒有功勞。但整體而論；彩券是藉公益之名，慷民眾之慨以補政府的不足，彩券盈餘所挹注的公益項目，都是政府原本就應照顧的族群，不應等待民眾簽注的盈餘才來做這些事。
　
——立法院第8屆第2會期第2次會議紀錄

https://bit.ly/2EkkktK
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
國內運動彩券之評析: https://www.npf.org.tw/3/5099

圖片出處: https://bit.ly/2P11l9L
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
參考資料：
　
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/refusing-t0-cheat-the-poor/2015/07/09/78154b9a-2670-11e5-aae2-6c4f59b050aa_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.55b

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/refusing-t0-cheat-the-poor/2015/07/09/78154b9a-2670-11e5-aae2-6c4f59b050aa_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.55bf29a1f446

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/lotteries-americas-70-billion-shame/392870/

http://www.businessinsider.com/lottery-is-a-tax-on-the-poor-2012-4

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/news/companies/powerball-lottery-games-poor/index.html

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/lotteries-americas-70-billion-shame/392870/

[時事英文] 死亡率（mortality rate）*、壓平曲線（flattening the curve）、活動限制 （lockdown）：如何理解這些術語？
　
Language goes beyond a sealed system governed by a rigid set of rules. To fully understand the meaning of a word, one must look further than connotation and denotation, and also take context into consideration. In this case, one needs to examine the social, political, economic, and even statistical contexts of the terms.
　
語言並非只是受嚴密規則所約束的封閉系統。為了充分理解一個單詞的意涵，我們不僅要瞭解其本義與引申義，同時還要考慮整個語境。在此一情況下，應要考察社會、政治、經濟甚至統計上的語境。
　
Does “confirmed cases,” for example, mean the same thing in every country before and during the coronavirus outbreak? What about “lockdowns”? Does it mean that the government is advising people to stay home or is someone nailing your door shut? Some food for thought when reading about the coronavirus outbreak.
　
例如，在冠狀病毒爆發前以及爆發期間，「確診病例」在各國是否具有相同的含義？那麼，封鎖呢？這是否意味著政府正建議人們留在家中，抑或有人正把你家大門釘上？以上是在閱讀疫情的相關資訊時所引人深思的一些事情。
　
*同學好心的補充說明：「mortality rate」通常指的是死亡率，而「fatality rate」則是（因罹患某疾病）致死率。兩者都是重要的死亡指標，但計算公式不相同。
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
《紐約時報》報導：
　
Making sense of the coronavirus pandemic requires getting up to speed on semantics as much as epidemiology. Government officials and health care professionals toss off mentions of mortality rates, flattening the curve and lockdowns, assuming that we know what they mean. But the terms mean different things from country to country, state to state, even city to city and person to person. Officials use the same phrases about mass testing, caseloads and deaths to describe very different situations. That makes it hard to give clear answers to vital questions: How bad are things? Where are they headed?
　
1. make sense of… 理解……
2. get up to speed on 了解最新情況；跟上進度
3. toss off 輕而易舉地處理*
　
弄懂新型冠狀病毒大流行，既需要了解流行病學的最新情況，也需要在語義學上跟上形勢。「死亡率」、「壓平曲線」和「活動限制」等說法從政府官員和公共衛生專業人士的嘴裡脫口而出，他們假設大家都知道這些詞的意思。但對不同的國家、不同的州，甚至不同的城市和個人來說，這些術語有著不同的含義。 官員們使用「大規模檢測」、「病例數」和「死亡病例數」等相同的措辭，來描繪非常不同的情況。這令一些重要的問題難以得到明確的回答：情況有多糟糕？正在向什麼方向發展？
　
toss off: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/toss%20off
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
People search for insight by comparing their countries to those that are further along in the epidemic. But if the terms are misleading or used in differing ways, the comparisons are flawed. Also, the statistics and vocabulary offer a false sense of precision while in reality, the information we have shows only a fraction of what’s going on. “The new cases or deaths each day are given as exact numbers, and we’re trained to take that at face value,” said Mark N. Lurie, an epidemiologist at Brown University’s School of Public Health. “But those are far from exact, they’re deeply flawed, and their meaning varies from place to place and from time period to time period.”
　
4. be further along in 在……上走得更深遠
5. at face value 根據外表；從表面上看
　
人們將自己的國家與那些經歷了疫情更多階段的國家進行比較，以求了解情況。但是，如果這些詞語使人產生誤解，或在使用方式上存在差異的話，這種比較就是錯誤的。此外，這些統計數據和詞彙給人以精準的假象，而現實是，我們所掌握的信息僅代表冰山一角。「每天的新增病例數或死亡人數都是以精準數字的形式通報的，我們被訓練成只看這些表面數字。」布朗大學公共衛生學院流行病學家馬克・盧裡說。「但這些數字遠非精準，而且有嚴重缺陷，它們的含義因不同的時間和地點而不同。」
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
I. Confirmed Cases 確診病例
　
Countries vary wildly in testing for the virus and how they report the numbers, and experts say most infections are going undetected. So the publicized national tallies are rough, incomplete pictures that may not be all that comparable. And that’s if countries are forthcoming about their data.
　
6. vary wildly in 在……上有極大的差異*
7. publicize 公布；宣傳
8. national tallies 國家的統計數據
9. incomplete pictures 不完整的狀況
10. forthcoming 樂於幫助的
　
各國在病毒檢測以及通報數字的方式上有很大差異，而且專家們說，大多數感染都沒有被發現。因此，各國公布的只是粗略的數據，這些並不完整的描繪也許沒有多少可比性。這還是在假設各國願意提供數據的情況下。

wildly: https://bit.ly/2wkgPjo
　
⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹
　
Officials in the United States say that China, which has reported more than 82,000 infections, has understated its epidemic. Until this week, the Chinese government excluded those patients who tested positive for the virus but had no symptoms. China also doesn’t say how many tests it has conducted, and doubts have been raised about whether it has tested extensively in Xinjiang, the province where it holds hundreds of thousands of Muslims in indoctrination camps. The Covid Tracking Project, run by The Atlantic, has tried to compile all the numbers in the United States and reports more than 1.2 million tests so far, over 3,600 per million people.
　
11. understate 未如實陳述；避重就輕地說
12. exclude 把……排除在外
13. indoctrination camps 再教育營
14. run by 由……經營
　
中國通報的累計確診病例超過８萬２千例，美國官員說，中國淡化了國內的疫情。直到本週前，中國政府一直把病毒檢測呈陽性但沒有癥狀的感染者不納入確診病例。中國也未公開接受檢測的人數，而且外界已對中國是否在新疆進行了大規模檢測表示懷疑，中國在那裡把數十萬穆斯林關進了拘禁營。《大西洋月刊》的新冠肺炎追蹤計劃試圖匯總美國的所有數據，它統計到的數字是，美國迄今為止進行了逾１２０萬例檢測，平均每百萬人超過３６００例。
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
II. Widespread Testing 大規模檢測

It matters not only how many people are tested, but also when, and who they are. Once again, countries differ, shaping what the numbers mean. A few countries, like South Korea, Australia and Singapore, got serious about mass testing early on. They used the information to do ambitious contact-tracing — finding and testing those who had recently been near infected people, even if they had no symptoms.
　
15. it matters 重要的是
16. not only……, but also…… 不僅……，而且……
17. get serious about 認真對待某事
18. early on 在早期
　
重要的不只是多少人做了檢測，檢測時間和檢測對象也很重要。各國在檢測時間和對象上也有不同，這讓數字的含義也有所不同。韓國、澳洲和新加坡等少數國家很早就開始認真地進行大規模檢測。他們利用這些信息嚴格追蹤接觸者，也就是找到並檢測那些親密接觸者，即使他們沒有癥狀。
　
⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹
　
But most nations with large numbers of cases have done less testing, waited longer to do it in bulk, and made little attempt at contact tracing. They find themselves playing catch-up with the virus, ramping up testing after their outbreaks had already mushroomed. They detect more cases, but by then it’s hard to tell how much of that growth is the expanding epidemic and how much is expanding surveillance. Unable to meet the demand, they often limit testing to the sickest patients and health workers.
　
19. in bulk 大量
20. make little attempt 幾乎未做嘗試
21. ramp up 增加*
22. mushroom (v.) 迅速增長；迅速發展*
23. meet the demand 滿足需求
24. limit……to 將……限制在……
　
但大多數存在大量確診病例的國家進行的檢測數量都比較少，都是等了更長時間後才開始進行大規模檢測，而且對追蹤接觸者的工作幾乎未做嘗試。這些國家發現自己在拚命追趕病毒的傳播，在疫情迅速蔓延後才加大了檢測力度。這些國家都檢測到了更多的病例，但此時已很難判斷新增病例中有多少是疫情不斷擴大的結果，有多少是擴大疫情監測的結果。由於無法滿足檢測需求，這些國家通常只能對病情最嚴重的患者以及衛生工作者做檢測。
　
ramp up: https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/ramp-up
mushroom: https://www.ldoceonline.com/dictionary/mushroom
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
III. Fatality Rates 致死率
　
It has been stated time and again: Italy and Spain have high mortality rates among coronavirus patients, Germany’s is low, and China’s is somewhere between. It may not be that simple. Counting the dead is as flawed and inconsistent as counting the infected. Recent reports say that mortuaries in Wuhan, China, where the disease was first discovered, have ordered thousands more urns than usual, suggesting a much higher death toll than the city’s official count, 2,535. The outbreaks in Wuhan, and parts of Italy and Spain, overwhelmed hospitals, forcing many sick people to ride it out at home. No one knows how many people have recovered or died without ever being tested. And if only the sickest patients are tested, then the number of infections will appear smaller and the percentage who die will seem higher.
　
25. time and again 屢次；一再
26. as flawed and inconsistent as 像……一樣存在缺陷與不一致
27. mortuary 停屍間（太平間）
28. urn 骨灰罈
29. suggest 暗示*
30. death toll 死亡人數
31. to ride it out 安然渡過（難關）*
　
一個反覆提及的說法是：義大利和西班牙的新冠病毒肺炎患者死亡率高，德國的低，中國的居中。情況也許並不那麼簡單。統計死亡人數和統計感染人數一樣存在缺陷和不一致的地方。最近有報導稱，武漢的殯儀館訂購的骨灰盒數比該市官方統計的２５３５例死亡高出好幾千，表明死亡人數遠高於官方公布的數字。新冠病毒最早就是在這座城市發現的。武漢以及義大利和西班牙部分地區的疫情使醫院不堪重負，許多患者被迫在家中渡過難關。沒人知道究竟有多少人在從未做檢測的情況下康復或死亡。如果只對病情最嚴重的患者做檢測的話，感染人數看上去會更低，而死亡率看起來將更高。
　
suggest: https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/suggest
ride sth out: https://bit.ly/2Rd6Tj6
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
IV. The Peak 疫情高峰
　
Officials often talk about when the epidemic peaks or plateaus — when a country “flattens the curve.” But they rarely specify, the peak of what? And how can we be sure we’re past it? When an outbreak is growing unchecked, more people become infected and more die each day than the day before. On a graph, the curve showing the daily count of new cases has gone from rising sharply to moving sideways — the curve has flattened — and even begun to move downward. That is one corner being turned: The rate of the spread of the virus has slowed down. It takes longer to turn another: the rate of people dying.
　
32. from rising sharply to moving sideways 從急劇上升到橫向移動
33. turn the corner 好轉；度過難關*
　
官員們經常提疫情何時達到高峰或進入平台期，也就是一個國家「壓平曲線」的時候。但他們很少具體說明是什麼達到了高峰，以及我們怎麼能確定高峰已過？當疫情不受控制地發展時，每天的感染和死亡人數都比前一天多。曲線圖上顯示的每天新增病例數從急劇上升變得趨於平緩——曲線已被壓平——甚至開始下降。這是一個轉折點：病毒的傳播速度已經放緩。度過死亡人數的轉折點則需要更長的時間。
　
turn the corner: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/turn%20the%20corner
　
⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹
　
But even when those curves flatten, the epidemic still has not “peaked” by another crucial measure: the number of active cases. That figure continues to rise until the number of patients who either die or recover each day is larger than the number of new infections. To ease the staggering load on health care systems, the active cases curve must also flatten and then fall.
　
34. peak (v.) 使……達到頂峰
35. either……or…… 不是……就是……
36. staggering 沉重的；巨大的
　
但是，即使這些曲線已趨於平緩，疫情的另一個重要衡量指標——現存確診病例數——仍未達到「峰值」。在每天的死亡或康復患者人數超過新增感染人數之前，這個數字還將繼續上升。為緩解衛生系統的沉重負擔，現存確診病例數的曲線也必須先趨平，然後下降。
　
peak: https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/peak_2
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
V. Lockdowns 封鎖（活動限制）
　
More than two billion people, including most Americans, are living under something usually called a lockdown. But there is no set definition of that word — or related terms like stay-at-home mandates and social distancing — so the details differ from place to place. The biggest differences may be in enforcement. Some places, like those in the United States with lockdowns, mostly rely on people to follow the rules without coercion. But Italy and others have deployed soldiers to ensure compliance, and French police have fined hundreds of thousands of people for violating restrictions. China, in addition to using security forces, mobilized an army of volunteers, ratcheting up social pressure to obey.
　
37. set definition 固定的定義
38. enforcement 實施；執行
39. rely on 仰賴；依靠
40. deploy 部署
41. compliance 服從
42. fine 處……以罰款（或罰金）
43. in addition to 除了……之外
44. mobilize 動員
45. ratchet sth up/down 逐步增加／減少
　
全球有２０多億人，包括大多數美國人正生活在一般被稱為「活動限制」的狀態下。但這個詞沒有固定的定義，其他的相關說法，比如政府的「待在家裡」和「保持社交距離」令也沒有明確的定義，所以各地的具體做法也不一樣。最大的不同可能在執行方面。有些地方，比如美國有限制令的地方，主要依靠人們自覺遵守，而非強制。但義大利等國為確保限制令的落實而動用了軍隊，法國警方還對數已十萬計的違反禁令者處以罰款。中國除了使用安全部隊外，還動員了一支志願者大軍來加大服從封鎖隔離措施的社會壓力。
　
⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹⊹
　
Italy’s experience shows the looseness of the term. It has gone through several phases of restrictions, applying them to more people, making them stricter and increasing enforcement. A few weeks ago, a person could travel around Italy for a valid work or family reason. Now, people are fined for nonessential walking too far from their homes. But each stage was widely called by the same name: lockdown.
　
46. looseness 鬆散
47. valid 確鑿的；合理的；有根據的；讓人信服的
　
義大利的經歷表明了這個詞語解釋上的自由。義大利的封鎖令經歷了幾個階段，適用範圍擴大到越來越多的人，封鎖及其執行也變得越來越嚴格。幾週前，人們還可以因為正當的工作或家庭原因在義大利旅行。現在，人們會因不必要的離家太遠的走動而被罰款。但禁令的每個階段用的都是同一個泛泛的名稱：活動限制。
　
《紐約時報》完整報導：https://nyti.ms/2XcCUeT

圖片出處：https://fxn.ws/34gwSeH
　
★★★★★★★★★★★★
　
時事英文大全：http://bit.ly/2WtAqop
　
如何使用「時事英文」：https://bit.ly/3a9rr38
　
＃疫情英文

0:00 オープニング
0:56 Collins Aerospace
2:34 Safran Seats
3:40 Stelia Aerospace
4:20 Thompson Aero Seating
4:42 JAMCO
5:30 ビジネスシート開発の裏側を解説

1. Collins Aerospace (US)
BE Aerospace
Super Diamond (Qatar) with door (BA)
https://youtu.be/0c8M6zdMbYI
QSuite
https://youtu.be/DCAPOw2a9qs
Apex (JAL & Korean air & Oman air)
https://youtu.be/khT-c5YwPpA
2017 purchased by Rockwell Collins = Collins Aerospace

2. Safran Seats (France)
Zodiac Aerospace
Cirrus (cathay biz)
https://youtu.be/N8Yq6O-wo2Y
Fusio (ANA The Room)
Skylounge (ANA biz)
https://youtu.be/1-HJ1_lF3ns
Optima (UA polaris)
2018 Safran purchased Zodiac

3. Thompson Aero Seating (Ireland)
Vantage XL (Qantas & jetBlue Mint)
https://youtu.be/KqE2vqIkOzk
https://youtu.be/1gle6Hpmya8
Vantage XL Suite (Delta One)
https://youtu.be/7DLuQSbadCk

4. JAMCO (Japan)
SQ biz A350 & A380 & B777 Biz & F
https://youtu.be/L1_g_i0I7-4
https://youtu.be/S85miQw0VtY
JAL new A350 domestic F

5. STELIA Aerospace (France) owned by Airbus
Solstys (Thai & Etihad & Asiana & Etihad B787-9)
https://youtu.be/hT6RdzJlONU
https://youtu.be/xLkqgYdH9ZY
https://youtu.be/pMrzZiNstMA
Solstys III (SQ B787-10 & Turkish B787)
https://youtu.be/9gokEu8j-js
OPAL (Air Senegal)

Credit:
https://www.skyclub.com/blog/the-best-business-class-seat-manufacturers-and-designs
https://www.safran-seats.com/passenger-seats/business-0
https://www.jamco.co.jp/en/business/sd.html
https://www.stelia-aerospace.com/en/p16-passenger-seats/
https://www.collinsaerospace.com/en/what-we-do/Commercial-Aviation/Cabin/Seating/Business-Class
https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/commercial-aviation-aircraft-seating-market-906.html
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aircraft-seating-market-size-to-reach-usd-13-42-billion-by-2026-rising-demand-for-in-flight-entertainment-to-boost-growth-300964518.html


JPA design (SQ A380 biz) (Cathay biz) (JAL old F)(SQ biz)
http://www.jpadesign.com/projects

Acumen (ANA new biz & F) (UA Polaris) (Etihad F) (Cathay F)
https://acumen-da.com/news?tag=aircraft-seating

QSuite
PristmanGoode
https://www.priestmangoode.com/who-we-are/

私のようにたくさんマイルを貯める方法を知りたい方はこちら↓をチェックしてみてください。
https://rikumiley.teachable.com/p/0d06da1

マイルを使っての特典航空券って空席見つからなくて大変！そう思ったことはありませんか？空席検索6年間して得たノウハウ全て教えます！詳しくはこちら↓
https://rikumiley.teachable.com/p/70812e

アメリカ在住で陸マイラーをしながらブログも書いている飛行機オタクです。 このYouTubeチャンネルではマイルを使い予約したビジネスクラス＆ファーストクラスの搭乗レビュー動画、ラウンジレビュー動画をメインにアップしていきます！ エアラインマイルを貯めていなかったら一生できなかったかもしれない経験を皆さんとシェアしていきたいと思います。
チャンネル登録がまだの方は是非チャンネル登録お願いします。動画編集の励みになります！

スポンサー＆ビジネス問い合わせ
?rikumiley@gmail.com

インスタ: https://www.instagram.com/rikumiley/?hl=en
ブログ：https://www.rikumiley.com
ツイッター：https://twitter.com/rikumiley

動画撮影に使った機材
GoPro Hero 7（ゴープロ）:
https://amzn.to/2oGbWgI
DJI Osmo Pocket（DJIオズモポケット）:
https://amzn.to/2PG05KD
Samsung Micro SD (マイクロSDカード128GB):
https://amzn.to/32fmlxv
GoPro Suction Cup（ゴープロサクションカップ）
https://amzn.to/36tqGR3
Jobby Gorilla Pod（トライポッド）
https://amzn.to/2NcZnmy
Anker Battery (携帯バッテリー):
https://amzn.to/34pObsA

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