🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻，初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示，在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%，市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金，以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者，都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊，他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場，所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上，SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元，高於一年前的約1,000億美元，反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此，今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠，扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域，其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡，一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環，因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價，投資者就更有可能這樣做，而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前，在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中，超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少，讓其更難實現業務目標，並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
in plus 評價 在 [心得/分享] 那些年，貓貓吃過的保健食品_益生菌- 看板cat 的美食出口停車場
前言的部分我們詳情請見上一篇 XD
總之雖然上個月才去寵物展又搜刮了一輪，
反正保健食品跟零嘴乾乾罐罐都是吃得到的，
而且四貓的消耗量還不少，
雙12還是又買了一波（捏荷包）
今天來分享家中貓貓吃過的益生菌們 XD
益生菌其實是我家貓貓第一個吃的保健食品、
上一篇寫的魚油是第二個開始吃的，
Yeap～最多人吃的離胺酸我家是第三個；
畢竟年輕的時候（遠目）在藥妝店待過幾年，
看多了拿保健食品當藥/糖吃的人，
「有病治病、沒病救命。」
拜託～這種觀念真的毋湯，
保健食品真的是我評估過家中貓貓情況、
也詢問過醫生適不適合後才給予的。
-
會給益生菌有兩個原因，
一是我家四貓有兩隻吸收不是很好，
吃也沒吃比人家少但就是長不大 QQ
俗稱的白吃（欸不是
二是我家四貓有三貓跟貓娘我一樣會必給，
便便都是羊便便狀（一顆一顆的）
給過新鮮小麥草效果也不是很好，
而且也不是每隻貓貓都買單，
最後詢問獸醫師後醫師也說益生菌很OK
反正不管是消化不良還是必給拉稀、
或是想要促進排毛效果都能給，不太挑貓。
歷年選手如下
1. 汪喵益生菌
他家益生菌分成腸胃保養用和過敏舒緩用，
主要是差在菌種的不同。
其實兩款我都試過，
先說我個人覺得的優點好了，
除了單價（相對）低好入手、
客服也有問必答，
滿適合初心者或是懶得做功課的人買。
缺點的話我個人覺得是菌種跟菌數相對低，
認真做功課後要回購的話我不會選它，
但如果沒特別要改善的問題的話還是可以買，
就是當保養用（？
2. 毛起來 AB益生菌好腸胃賞
這隻真的抱歉，
又是一個沒做好功課的產物（喂
菌種比較單純倒是小事，
主要是我家三隻大的吃了過關，
小的吃了反而拉稀 zzzzz
後來猜測可能是裡面添加初乳蛋白的關係
（關於貓貓乳糖不耐症的部分）
不過我家投餵狀態是bufft吃到飽
（沒有過胖問題請不用擔心）
所以沒辦法做到分食，
試了一週左右剩下的送給朋友的狗子吃了。
3. 愛寶 益菌多
上一集有提到的廣播電台賣藥的選手（欸
我用的是之前的膠囊版本，
現在好像都是粉狀的，
大約吃五六天左右便便形狀就漂亮很多，
開始每天都會有條狀便便不是羊大便了，
目前我膠囊版還剩一下一罐未開封，
雖然跟粉末版內容物一樣啦 XD
但我覺得膠囊打開灑飼料我比較好抓量～
菌種滿多的、菌數也很高，
最重要的是裡面加的是乳果寡糖，
不會有乳糖不耐的問題，
總算對得起我家么女（淚
這家的硬傷就是單價真的偏高，
長得又很像廣播電台賣藥的，
買之前真的會想三六九下，
不過同貓娘我買保養品的邏輯一樣
沒（不）效（適）的（合）才是最貴的。
4. 現代百益康 善益菌
這間包裝也滿像廣播電台賣藥的（又來
我真的對廣播電台賣藥的印象很深 XD
小時候家裡長輩很常買這種東西回來 = =
這罐的菌種也相對單純，價格好入手，
但缺點就是配方上菌株應該沒辦法活太久（？
如果因為價格因素考慮這隻的話，
我覺得那乾脆買汪喵。
-
最後、
補個滿多人給貓仔狗子的吃若元錠跟表飛鳴，
以前在藥妝店上班時，
就很常有客人是要買給寵物吃的、
說吃了以後就沒有症狀了。
但我一直都滿存疑的，
覺得人吃的真的適合小動物嗎？
畢竟身體的構造還是不太一樣，
有些人身體可以負擔的貓仔狗子不一定可以，
當時有詢問過多位藥師
是不是真的可以給動物吃；
得到的結論都是
「我不是獸醫不能肯定，
但是我自己是不建議。」
.
總之我自己是不敢啦，
不管是魚油還是益生菌，
畢竟劑量也滿難控制的（我就懶）
但這部分也沒辦法說給人吃的就是不好，
所以我們也不要戰 QQ
就是個人意志而已（笑）
以上，下一篇沒有難產的話
暫時就是最後一篇了（離胺酸）
不過離胺酸好像也沒什麼好寫的、
主要就是要跟牛磺酸一起效果會比較好，
然後飼料罐頭裡面說有添加的都不要相信 XD
因為加熱後都沒效了（攤手）
如果篇幅夠加上我沒犯懶病的話，
我們下次見吧！
-----
Sent from JPTT on my iPhone
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 223.136.30.17 (臺灣)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/cat/M.1607921500.A.086.html
畢竟家中最小的貓貓（成貓）才2.2kg
便便了耶，這樣也是正常的嗎 QAQ
站上寫的配方的話我覺得菌株實際存活率較低
有的就是你的蜜糖也說不定，我也是試了很久才試出心得的～
，我自己覺得劑量滿難抓的，畢竟隨便一個成年人就50公斤左右了吧 QAQ
※ 編輯: UNA33 (223.136.30.17 臺灣), 12/15/2020 11:16:50
... <看更多>