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【MacroMicro 財經M平方：2021年五大投資走向】
#美國聯準會 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 17日公布今年最後一次利率會議，點陣圖顯示維持低利率至2023年不變，同時採用經濟復甦之前，均持續每月1200億購債規模的前瞻指引，整體維持鴿派態度。
從2020年的最後一場聯準會利率會議，我們可以如何準備2021年的投資方向呢？
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ทำไม มาตรการ QE ของสหรัฐ ไม่ทำให้เกิดเงินเฟ้อ ขั้นรุนแรง /โดย ลงทุนแมน
Quantitative Easing หรือที่เรียกสั้นๆ ว่า QE
คือเครื่องมือหนึ่ง ที่ธนาคารกลาง ใช้ในการกระตุ้นเศรษฐกิจ
โดยการอัดฉีดเงิน เพื่อเพิ่มสภาพคล่องให้ระบบเศรษฐกิจ ในภาวะเศรษฐกิจชะลอตัว
...Continue ReadingWhy U.S. QE measures don't cause severe inflation / by investman
Quantitative Easing aka QE
Is one tool that central banks use to stimulate the economy.
By pumping money to increase liquidity for the economic system in slowing economic progress.
But the result that many people worry about is.
Amount of money will rise in the economic system which will bring inflation.
And may be severe to severe inflation aka ′′ Hyperinflation
We have seen many countries do QE hard.
Will this lead to severe inflation in the future?
Investing man will try to analyse it.
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First, let's understand the meaning of Hyperinflation.
Hyperinflation is a condition where product prices rise quickly.
Makes the country's money value go down dramatically
Why the value of money goes down
As a result, lots and lots of money flowing into the economy.
Compared to the same amount of goods and services in the economic system.
Price increases product prices quickly
An example of past severe Hyperinflation incident.
Such as in Hungary and Venezuela
Hyperinflation in Hungary happened in 1946
During that time, Hungary was heavily damaged by WWI.
Especially various infrastructure systems.
The Hungarian Government has shortage of budgets in economic revival.
So I decided to print a lot of money to repair the city's home and stimulate the economy.
Making money in Hungary's system is increasing tremendously.
As much as the amount of money increases, the domestic products are still the same.
So it makes inflation rise quickly
Hungary average product prices increase to 2 times in 15 hours.
By the moment of Hyperinflation
Hungary inflation rate rises to 150,000 % within one day.
Venezuela part of year 2019
Venezuelan inflation rises to 10,000,000
The cause of this story is similar to the case of Hungary
Well there is excessive economic system injection
Both to stimulate a slowing economy from low petrol prices.
Including to use for government's populist policies
We'll see that all 2 events have one thing in common.
Well there is a huge economic system injection.
Which leads to hyperinflation
Back at present COVID crisis-19
Many countries have measures to stimulate the economy.
With lots of money pumping into the economic system
US Central Bank
Using unlimited amount of QE measures
From the original designated price of about 22 trillion baht per year.
Central Bank of Japan
It's another country that uses unlimited amount of QE measures.
From the original designated, about 24 trillion baht per year.
European Central Bank announces more projects
In acquisition of emergency assets worth over 27 trillion baht.
It will see that many countries are now pumping a lot of money into the system.
And in many countries, I used to do heavy QE before.
For example, the case of the USA.
There has been a lot of money pumping into the economic system in the past 10 years.
Since the 2008 US Real Estate Bubble crisis.
Interesting is that US inflation rates aren't adjusted to much higher like the cases of Hungary and Venezuela.
2010 US average inflation rate equates to 1.6 %
2019 US average inflation rate equates to 1.8 %
Japan is another country where xỳāng h̄nạk measures are taken.
But inflation is still at low near 0 % as well.
Why is the story like this?
This phenomenon is partly because
US and Japan central banks make QE through asset purchases.
Both bonds, shares, loan from commercial banks.
And commercial banks are responsible for re-releasing money into the economy.
But what happens is that commercial banks don't forward the money they get from central banks.
To the business and household sector as everyone thought at first.
The cause is because during economic recession or slowdown.
Household sector tends to save money rather than bring money to spend.
Due to insecure future economic
For example, in USA.
The deposit amount in the COVID-19 pre-birth system is around 416 trillion baht.
But when COVID-19 goes viral, deposits in the system increase to almost 500 trillion baht.
Within just a few months
Meanwhile, a bad economic situation.
Making selling business sector products and services difficult.
Making production and service still very much available.
Business sector may not require a loan to expand business.
Enough demand for products and services doesn't increase higher.
Well, things don't go much higher.
Even with lots of money in the system
Another point is.
Countries with large economies like USA and Japan
Own the world's main currency with high credibility.
Most people still believe and still demand to hold these currency.
In conclusion, if you ask for QE making of big countries today.
Will it lead to severe inflation in the future?
I have to say that this problem can be difficult for big countries like USA and Japan.
But the point is, this plague crisis doesn't know when it ends.
And countries inject money log in
For a country which is economically stable as a big country, it might be careful.
Because those countries may have severe inflation, different from this case..
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References
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
-https://nomadcapitalist.com/2014/04/20/top-5-worst-cases-hyperinflation-history/
-https://www.businessinsider.com/hungarys-hyperinflation-story-2014-4
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Venezuela
-https://www.thestreet.com/investing/federal-reserve-unveils-unlimited-qe-to-confront-coronavirus
-https://www.schroders.com/en/bm/asset-management/insights/economic-views/bank-of-japan-ramps-up-qe-again-amid-dismal-outlook/
-https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
-https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/japan/news/inflation/core-consumer-prices-hold-steady-in-june-in-annual-terms
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/ecb.projections202006_eurosystemstaff~7628a8cf43.en.html#toc3
-https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2900/inflation/inflation-and-quantitative-easing/
-https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOGTranslated
梧：This article is a must read.
Yes, although the modern day equivalent of a JP Morgan is actually the Federal Reserve ie. Central Banks, however no central banker on this planet at this moment can wield as much financial and political power as JP Morgan once did. I mean, this man single-handedly saved the US financial system from collapse at one point in the early 20th Century .
Now if any of you are interested in what JP Morgan did during his time and how his bank became one of the most powerful financial institutions in the world, go read Ron Chernow's The House of Morgan. It's an intense read but a very well written book indeed.
主持人：阮慕驊
主題：人行意外降凖！陸港股下半年還有行情？
節目時間：週一 4:00pm
本集播出日期：2021.07.12
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