關於 annual rate of return ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

【停滯型通膨即將來臨嗎？】

我認為我們即將在一兩年內經歷全球大部分地區的停滯型通膨（stagflation）。我認為投資的方向也會因此微調。

1. 濫發通貨的後果比我們想像中嚴重

我在《後疫情時代中國面對的經濟環境》一文中預測的通貨膨脹現象，已經從資本市場、房地產市場逐漸拓展到美國一般消費市場。

從媒體報導或社群網站上的照片記錄看來，普遍性的消費商品價格上漲已然發生。（見圖）

如同諾貝爾經濟學獎得主F. A. Hayek曾以蜂蜜形容貨幣的流動，在注入貨幣的過程，會造成某部分價格上漲，然後才慢慢拓展出去。而以當今Fed的貨幣干預手段，我們可以看到美國國債利率的下跌與股票、衍生性金融商品市場的價格上漲為常見的起點。而最後，亦如另一位諾貝爾獎得主M. Friedman所言：「通貨膨脹始終是貨幣現象」。

我相信讀者也在許多財經媒體上看到有關通貨膨脹的警告或討論了。

經濟學家Joseph Carson指出，美國在1970年代的CPI統計是包含房地產價格，因此1979年CPI成長11.3％中有相當比例是因為當年房地產價格激增。但現今的統計卻排除了房地產價格。而新冠疫情之後美國房地產價格因濫印貨幣而飆漲，故即便美國官方公佈的過去12個月CPI增長5.4%，但如果採取1970年代的標準計入房地產價格因素，則實際CPI漲幅應該是兩位數！

這也表示，Fed聲稱通貨膨脹只是暫時且不嚴重的論點，很可能是基於刻意被低估的統計方法。另一個值得一提的，是Fed自疫情封城後每個月都買入$400億美元房貸為基礎的金融證券（mortgage-backed securities），但我們也都清楚2008年美國金融危機的一大肇因就是美國聯邦政府轄下兩個專門替房貸信用擔保的房利美、房地美機構（Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac），其相當於政府干預市場的行為扭曲並蒙蔽了市場對真實風險的判斷。

更值得警醒的是如顧問公司MBS Highway指出美國Fed實質買入的房貸基礎證券金額恐怕高達$1000億美元每月，硬生生人為壓低房貸利率0.25~0.35%。

綜合來看，Fed刻意濫發通貨不但眾所周知，很可能實際規模超越我們理解。而美國政府的CPI統計卻因排除房地產與股票等資產，無法正確地理解真實通膨現狀。

2. 政府引發通膨並非萬靈丹 -- 菲利普曲線早已失效

美國上班族實質週薪相較去年同期收入下降了1.7%，製造業員工更是下降了2.2%。

然而根據總體經濟學的菲利普曲線與相關理論認為，通貨膨脹引發的實質薪資下降理論上應該可以提高就業。可事實上我們看到的是五月份高達900萬份職位仍空懸找不到勞工。根據華爾街日報報導，六月份失業率5.9%竟仍高於新冠疫情前的3.5%。

為何如此？早幾年我已經多次撰文談過，菲利普曲線只是基於紐西蘭某一小短時期的統計數字，從經濟理論上就存在內在矛盾與瑕疵，根本不是個普遍可適用的通論，頂多算是個「特例」。因此我們常看到經濟學家質疑此曲線失效實屬正常。

從制度經濟學角度觀察，貨幣政策的確可以引發通貨膨脹造成實質薪資下降，但工作機會與適任員工二者的媒合本身並非不存在交易費用，這意味著並非實質薪資下降馬上需求曲線丟進來，交易量（即就業人數）立即增大。

美國Fed的達拉斯分行4月份報告就指出：30.9％因疫情失業的勞工並未重新回到他們原本的舊工作，此數字還高過去年7月的19.8％。

根據美國人力網站ZipRecruiter近日研究發現幾個目前美國就業市場現象：

a. 本來在娛樂或餐飲旅館行業的就業人士，被疫情的強迫停業嚇怕了，高達70%欲轉行，但多數卻因為行業專業不同難以順利轉換跑道。

b. 過去幾個月來新開出的職缺與失業人數竟然同步上升。

c. 因為疫情許多人跑去城市郊區甚至鄉村避難，結果開出職缺的區域與求職者所在區域出現明顯分離。

d. 同樣因為疫情封城管制造成的後果，紐約市區星巴克的今年五月來店人數相較兩年前同期下降65%，工作機會也隨之發生改變。

e. 每週$400美元的失業補助讓許多失業者不急於找工作。溫蒂漢堡、必勝客、Applebee's、Taco Bell等知名連鎖餐廳提供額外的獎金補貼也依然找不到員工。

而這一些因交易費用增加產生的就業市場成交量下降，從制度經濟學角度來看難以依靠貨幣政策改善，而是必須透過放寬就業市場法規來協助降低交易費用。可是我們看到卻是迷信政府管制的新一任Biden政府。

3. Biden總統的行政命令

今年7月初美國總統Biden簽署了一系列行政命令，新增了橫跨農業、健康產業、物流、交通、科技產業、勞工...等各種管制，聲稱可以透過政府干預帶來產業競爭狀態的改善與消費者/勞工權益。

我們可以從Biden總統的發言看到他對基礎經濟學概念的嚴重無知與缺乏：“Capitalism without competition isn’t capitalism. It’s exploitation,” ... “Without healthy competition, big players can change and charge whatever they want, and treat you however they want. And for too many Americans that means accepting a bad deal for things that you can’t go without.”

經濟學認為競爭無處不在，而不同的侷限條件會導致競爭的態樣改變。某些侷限條件下的競爭會有較高的租值消散，某些則較少。純粹市價競爭的自由市場是理論上完全無租值消散的一種競爭態樣。

因此，政府管制往往帶來的只是更多租值消散與尋租空間。誠如雷根總統說過：「政府本身就是問題，而不是解答。」

所以我們不難發現試圖以更多管制措施、更多政府干預來「使市場健康競爭」的Biden政府，必然是一場徒勞無功且弊病叢生的白工。只是所增加的交易費用，依然是由美國人民來承擔，這對通貨膨脹烏雲蓋頂的底層百姓而言，恐怕雪上加霜。

還記得中美貿易戰多篇文章我均指出，從正確的經濟學邏輯角度來看，時任Trump政府對中國的各種關稅或非關稅貿易壁壘，最終的成本承擔者只會是美國消費者。

我們看到前任Fed主席，現任美國財政部部長Janet L. Yellen也於7月中旬接受紐約時報採訪時鬆口承認Trump時代對中國的關稅障礙結果是在傷害美國消費者。（"Tariffs are taxes on consumers. In some cases it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers, ..."）

這樣的錯誤，美國政府百年來犯了無數次。例如我們曾談過Milton Friedman 與George Stigler 兩位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主共同撰寫的知名論文「Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem」以1906年甫大地震後225,000人無家可歸的舊金山市為研究對象，發現當時無力管制的市政府放任市場自由定價，結果是多數人很快找到新家，即便是十分貧窮者，也有與之對應的廉價房屋提供（1906 advertisement “Six-room house and bath, with 2 additional rooms in basement having fire-places, nicely furnished; fine piano; … $45."）

但到了1946年，舊金山因人口增長而推出租金管制，明明房屋短缺嚴重性遠不如1906年大地震後的慘狀，但卻發生多數人租不到房子的窘境！

根據二位經濟學大神研究，1906年每一個想租屋的人，大約有10間房子供選擇；但租金管制後的1946年，每375個求租客對應10間房子供給。

更嚴重的實例還有1970年代石油危機期間，美國政府出台的各種價格與非價格管制干預措施的結果，反而更抬高國內石化產品價格，加劇石化產品短缺現象，不但各地加油站大排長龍，不少妙齡女子以身體為代價與加油站老闆員工上床以取得汽油的新聞不絕於耳。

因此我推斷，美國如不放寬對中國的制裁，只會加重自身通膨惡果，同時惡化真實失業狀況。

一方面，管制會加重人民負擔提高交易費用這點已經敘明不再重複；另一方面，中國是美國過去二十年瘋狂印鈔卻未引發嚴重通貨膨脹現象的最大助力。

這點不僅我這樣看，如經濟學名家張五常教授、前任美國聯準會主席Alan Greenspan於2005年美國國會聽證會發言，乃至於經濟學人雜誌2004年10月份的特別報告「Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates」也做如是想，且不說還有許多經濟學家也持一樣的觀點。

誠如Greenspan於前述聽證會上發言指出，對中國貿易制裁結果必然導致美國民生物價上漲與人民生活品質受損，但卻無任何經濟學理與客觀證據支撐政客謬論 -- 制裁中國並無法改善美國就業率。

可即便Greenspan早在2005年國會上已言者諄諄，顯然後來十幾年美國政客們是聽者藐藐。因為政客利益往往不等同於人民利益，這是民主國家最大的侷限條件。

回過頭看，Biden政府上台以來，不但沒有放寬Trump時代對中國的諸多基於污衊指控而實施的貿易制裁，甚至有變本加厲的態勢。但如此舉措對美國自身其實極為不利。行文至此我們已經可以確定實質經濟成長停滯與通貨膨脹雙擊的「停滯性通膨」將來臨。

4. 歐美國家與日本普遍高負債結果只能以提高稅率或利率為結果。

所謂的「現代貨幣理論（MMT）」根本是一套無視成本的胡扯，違背了「凡有選擇必有代價」的經濟學最基礎侷限。各國瘋狂印鈔當然最後會出現通貨膨脹，不負責任的政府只能以提高稅率或提高利率為代價。

只是每個國家面對的侷限條件不同，使得代價發生的時程或「閥值」有所不同。

通貨膨脹現象說到底是個「貨幣增長率對上經濟成長率」的過程 -- 當貨幣增長率追不上實質經濟成長率，通貨收縮會發生；當貨幣增長率超過實質經濟成長率，則通貨膨脹會發生。注意，我這裡指的「實質經濟成長率」是「真實」的經濟成長，而不是GDP、凱因斯經濟學那套錯誤的觀念。這部分我以前就為文批評過，有興趣的讀者請自行查找。

故，同樣因應新冠疫情而寬鬆貨幣的俄羅斯，其面對的國際經貿環境不比美國日本，自然很快就承受不住通膨壓力於近日宣布一口氣調升利率100個基點至6.5%。（見圖）

美國聯邦政府2021年政府負債$28.5兆美元，是GDP的128.31%。僅利息支出達$4025億美元，佔年度預算5.3%，佔聯邦稅金收入9.8%。如果美國無法成功抑制通貨膨脹，則隨之而來的利率飆升將造成美國財政風險。畢竟市場利率始終是由「無風險利率+風險貼水+預期通貨膨脹率」組成。

我們可以注意到1980年代初期，美國國債淨利息支出增加的時期，其相對應的10年國債利率也大幅攀升。

同樣地，在高通膨率的1980年代初期（藍線），市場利率也曾一度飆升至近20%（黑色虛線）。（見圖）

再看看目前世界主要經濟體的債務狀況（見圖）

新冠疫情之後，世界主要國家的債務風險只增不減。

英國經濟學家，前英格蘭銀行與英國貨幣政策顧問Charles Goodhart警告：「中國帶給全世界的經濟紅利若因其人口結構老化而逐漸消失，則世界必將面對通貨膨脹衝擊。」（"...as aging populations in China and other nations spend more of their savings, average interest rates will rise higher than governments have bargained for...China’s greatest contribution to global growth is now past. This great demographic reversal will lead to a return of inflation.”）

通膨來襲加上實質生產力成長受損的停滯性通膨夾擊下，歐洲與日本等主要經濟體不得不面對更棘手的債務危機。這些國家未來政治與社會的動盪將會是常見的現象。

美元20多年來快速通貨成長下而無明顯國內通膨的一個重要因素，在於其做為世界最主要國際貿易交易結算貨幣的角色，使得世界整體經濟成長大於等於美元通貨成長時，通膨率不易上升。就如Greenspan 2005年在美國國會作證所闡釋，中國作為1990年代以來美國成長最快且體量非常大的貿易夥伴，中國對美元的需求本身就保證了美元的購買力，同時物美價廉的中國製造產品也大幅壓低了美國國內物價增長率。

上個世代扮演此角色的是日本，因此我們也看到日本與中國分別是目前美國國債最大持有國。（Foreign governments owned US$7.053 trillion of US debt in November, including China's US$1.063 trillion, and Japan's US$1.260 trillion, US Treasury data showed. ）

然後在此次疫情重創且血虧的奧運會之後，其逐漸衰退的整體生產力與相當惡化的債務狀況，我懷疑日本還有多少殘存力量支撐美元。

因此我們不難理解為何美國新任Biden政府上台後汲汲營營地尋求與中國高層會面。

結論

人民幣國際化的推進與中美經貿脫鉤二者都會帶來美元實質購買力的衰退與美國通膨惡化。因此美國政府如要避免財政危機，必須做到二件事：a. 解除貿易壁壘，尤其是針對中國的貿易制裁；b. 確保中國繼續願意大額購買美國債券以及使用美元為主要國際貿易結算貨幣。

中國數字人民幣推展與歐洲也開始積極發展數字貨幣的背後，都是直接對美元在國際貿易、金融體系的競爭。一帶一路若越成功也越能協助人民幣國際化。

這些都是美國非常不樂見。因此我們可以看到美國不斷在造謠污衊中國的一帶一路與科技後門監聽等事項，就算明明被抓包踢爆監聽全世界的是美國自己。

然而如同我多次解釋過，美式民主制度下政客的利益與人民利益往往不一致。當鼓動對中仇視有利於競選時，美國政客很難選擇與中國和平、更深度交流的道路；當增加更多政府管制干預與有利於尋租時，政客也是毫不猶豫地如此選擇。所以我們會在未來相當長時間看到精神分裂的美國 -- 又不希望中國在世界經濟影響力增加而欲打壓，但自己又不能真的因打壓中國與之脫鉤。

這種人格分裂狀態恐怕未來十幾年都會是美國政壇主旋律。

因此站在投資人的角度，我選擇把財產壓在美國利率終將上漲這一大方向上。

文章連結：
https://tinyurl.com/58hauwkf

參考資料：

WSJ, "How Much Are Prices Up? Here’s One Family’s Day-to-Day Expenses." July 9, 2021

WSJ, "Job Openings Are at Record Highs. Why Aren’t Unemployed Americans Filling Them?" July 9, 2021

WSJ, "Governments World-Wide Gorge on Record Debt, Testing New Limits" July 12, 2021

范一飞, "关于数字人民币M0定位的政策含义分析" 2020年09月15日

元毓, "宏觀經濟學的尷尬—菲利普曲線死了嗎？" May 8, 2018

NYT, "Yellen Says China Trade Deal Has ‘Hurt American Consumers’" July 16, 2021

WSJ, "Biden Targets Big Business in Sweeping Executive Order to Spur Competition" July 9, 2021

WSJ, "The 2021 Olympics Are Turning Into a $20 Billion Bust for Japan" July 20, 2021

Bank for International Settlement, "CBDCs: an opportunity for the monetary system" BIS Annual Economic Report | 23 June 2021

Barron's, "The Housing Market Is on Fire. The Fed Is Stoking the Flames." July 23, 2021

Barron's, "Disco Inferno: The U.S. Could Be Headed Back to ’70s-Style Stagflation" July 16, 2021

Reuters, "Russia raises key rate to 6.5% in sharpest move since 2014" July 23, 2021

Milton Friedman & George Stigler, "Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem" September 1946

Alan Greenspan, "FRB: Testimony" June 23, 2005

The Economist, "Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates" Oct 2nd 2004

誰是柏格的頭號粉絲？
答案是華倫.巴菲特

What a Boglehead he is, this Mr. Warren Buffett :-) :-) :-)

"If my $114.75 had been invested in a no-fee S&P 500 index fund, and all dividends had been reinvested, my stake would have grown to be worth (pre-taxes) $606,811 on January 31, 2019 (the latest data available before the printing of this letter). That is a gain of 5,288 for 1. Meanwhile, a $1 million investment by a tax-free institution of that time – say, a pension fund or college endowment – would have grown to about $5.3 billion.

Let me add one additional calculation that I believe will shock you: If that hypothetical institution had paid only 1% of assets annually to various “helpers,” such as investment managers and consultants, its gain would have been cut in half, to $2.65 billion. That’s what happens over 77 years when the 11.8% annual return actually achieved by the S&P 500 is recalculated at a 10.8% rate."

- Warren Buffett, chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, annual shareholder letter released on Feb 23, 2019

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2018ltr.pdf

昨天台灣大哥大發布訊息，自 2019 年 4 月 1 日起將聘任 AppWorks 創辦合夥人 Jamie 林之晨為總經理，長期關心 AppWorks 的朋友，或許會有些疑惑。其實不是 Jamie 換工作，而是 AppWorks 將與台灣大一起，挑戰一個放大 10 倍的計畫。在此跟大家分享 Jamie 的聲明，有更完整的敘述。

#以下是_Jamie_聲明全文

稍早台灣大哥大發布訊息，自 2019 年 4 月 1 日起將聘任為我為總經理，我的朋友們，以及長期關心我與 AppWorks 的媒體，一定會有許多疑惑，請容我在此統一向大家說明。
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#EnglishBelow 稍早台灣大哥大發布訊息，自 2019 年 4 月 1 日起將聘任為我為總經理，我的朋友們，以及長期關心我與 AppWorks 的媒體，一定會有許多疑惑，請容我在此統一向大家說明。

首先，我不是接下了台灣大總經理的職位，而是接下了整合市值美金 120 億、營收美金 38 億的台灣大與市值美金 36 億、營收美金 25 億的 AppWorks Ecosystem，放大出 10 倍成果的任務。

這得從我的故事說起，如果您還沒聽過的話，我原本已經移民美國，和老婆小孩開心的住在紐約，2008 年，我在美看到 iPhone、Android 相繼問世，Facebook、Twitter 等社群媒體成為主流，意識到軟體的力量將越來越大，而硬體將越來越沒有價值，換言之，台灣的國際經濟地位將受到極大挑戰，因此決定舉家搬遷回台，推動台灣的轉型升級，以免我熱愛的福爾摩沙從世界經濟奇蹟變成失落的遺跡。

這是一個很大的決定，不僅我要放棄自己的美國夢，老婆、小孩都得跟著改變職涯、學涯，因此既然要做，就得發揮最大的 Impact。所以回台之後，我每天思考、決定、努力的，都是最大化我對台灣的貢獻。

因此這些年來我戴了很多帽子，表面看起來沒什麼相關性，但背後都有一個共同的目的，那就是推動台灣的改變。首先，我長期寫網誌、經營 Facebook 等網路社群、在《天下》等期刊寫專欄、出書、演講、接受採訪，心想的是分享新知、新觀念，散播進步需要的養分。

我與夥伴們成立 AppWorks，有系統的幫助年輕人創業，為的是培養千千萬萬帶領台灣前進的下一代生力軍。這也是為什麼 AppWorks 從 2010 年啟動半年一期的創業加速器，至今一直堅持免費提供。目前 AppWorks Accelerator 共畢業的 17 屆、925 位創業者，由他們成立的活躍企業高達 328 家，2018 年產值 760 億，提供 9,500 個工作機會，非常確切的為台灣貢獻一股向上動能。更重要的是，這些創業者們因 AppWorks 而相識相惜，形成一個緊密互助的網路，更是社會的長期資產。

當 AppWorks 在台灣站穩腳步，2014 年我們開始積極走訪東南亞，邀請優秀的東協創業者前來加入，希望透過串連跨國創業者網路，促進台灣的區域化，同時貢獻東協的數位發展。經過 5 年的推動，這個工作也有大幅進展，即將在 3 月進駐 AppWorks 的 33 組 AW#18 團隊，將有高達 19 組來自東南亞，包含他們在內，AppWorks 有 160 家企業在台灣以外的大東南亞市場有據點，形成一個真正區域化的網路。現在，來自台灣、香港、新加坡的 AppWorks 創業者要前往印尼、越南發展，可以很容易的找到 AppWorks 校友帶路，大大降低了區域化的門檻。

除了創業加速器，透過 AppWorks，我們同時努力創造更多台灣改變需要的新典範。以創業投資為例，我們 2012 年成功募集 3.2 億 Fund I，2014 年募得 15 億 Fund II，在 AppWorks 團隊的努力經營下，目前兩支基金的投資績效都是水準以上，其中 Fund II 至今的年化內部報酬率 (IRR) 達 29%，遠高於歐美同期創投基金的 Top Quartile (前四分之一) 指標。透過追求與國際一流基金同等的表現，我們希望促進台灣 LP (創投投資人的簡稱) 更有信心支持本土新興 GP (創投管理公司的簡稱)，進而推動台灣創投業的復甦。

2016 年，我們出資成立 AppWorks School，每 4 個月一期，免費幫助年輕人透過實作學習程式、轉職工程師、加入成長中的數位行業，提升他們的職涯的同時，也為台灣貢獻人才。目前 School 已畢業 106 位學生，其中 85% 成功轉職，第一年起薪中位數達 67 萬。雖然杯水車薪，但我們希望拋磚引玉，刺激台灣教育的現代化，幫助年輕人準備好面對 AI 時代。

此外，AppWorks 雖然仍是中小企業，但受到的關注較多，因此也經常以身作則，為台灣業界示範新時代企業可以有的新思維。除了看齊國際優質創投的薪資獎金水準、年假無上限、自由選擇工作時間地點、新年假期長達三、四週外，我們更在日前啟動交棒計畫，讓年僅 30 歲的 Jessica 劉侊縈、40 歲的 Andy 蔡欣翰升任合夥人，希望激發台灣企業勇敢讓年輕人當家。

私部門之外，有機會推動台灣轉型的公領域活動，我也積極參與。2016 年，我從詹宏志先生手上接下 TiEA (台灣網際網路暨電子商務產業發展協會) 理事長，上任後便努力推動網路電商正名運動，成功說服了櫃買中心創立電子商務分類；2017 年起我開始擔任亞洲·矽谷民諮委共同召集人、數位國家諮詢委員、代表台灣參加每年四次的 ABAC (APEC Business Advisory Council) 會議，2018 年又奉總統之命擔任 APEC Vision Group 代表，與其他 20 會員國派出的先進，一起定義 APEC 未來的 20 年願景。這些雖然都是義務工作，但我都當作正職全力以赴，因為都有機會大大影響台灣的命運，以及在經濟領域的國際能見度。

最後，我去年決定再次舉家，準備遷往雅加達，同樣還是以為台灣貢獻出發。我觀察到 2.6 億人口的印尼正在快速崛起，短短 5 年內從有限的新創活動，到 4 隻本土獨角獸加 3 隻外來獨角獸的蓬勃景況，必須要幫助台灣抓住這個成長機會，但印尼商業生態與台灣大不相同，所以我決定進駐雅加達、深耕當地，希望能因此扮演帶領 AppWorks 新創進入印尼的嚮導，縮短我們與世界第四大國、東南亞第一大國的距離。這麼做得犧牲一些我在台灣的工作，但這些工作多半我的夥伴們可以承接，因此我便毅然開始行動。

講了這麼多，我其實只是希望您能了解，我大老遠從紐約搬回來的目的就是改變台灣，所以這些年來我做決定沒什麼懸念，因為不需要考慮自己的利益，只需要考慮在這個時間點，我做這件事情，是不是最能貢獻台灣。

如此我們便可以回到正題，這次的「台灣大 + AppWorks」專案。

不久前，蔡明忠董事長約我談話，詢問我有沒有興趣接下台灣大總經理的職位，一開始我其實是無法答應的，首先我已經決定搬去印尼，再來我也不確定接這個位子，跟貢獻台灣的關係。回去想了兩整天後，我有了答案，我跟蔡董事長說，必須有四個先決條件：

第一，結合台灣大和 AppWorks，用 AppWorks 生態系去幫助台灣大轉型為科技企業，同時以台灣大為平台去加速 AppWorks 新創的成長，因此創造更多成功的企業，為台灣示範成熟企業如何與新創實際合作；

第二，由 AppWorks 帶路，推動台灣大 + AppWorks 走出台灣，成為一個大東南亞科技集團，為台灣企業的區域化寫下典範，同時也成為能加速 AppWorks 新創區域化的大平台；

第三，以建立一個市值 1,000 億美金 (US$ 100B) 的科技集團為目標，創造第一個由台灣出發、真正達到國際級的非代工企業；

第四，所有因為台灣大 + AppWorks 集團未來的價值成長，公司依規定希望給予我個人的獎勵，要能全數由集團捐為公益使用，且專注在推動台灣的教育改革與電影工業上。

我跟蔡董事長說，如果以這四個目標為前提，那就值得我花 10 到 15 年的生命去推動。這基本上是我的夢幻清單，如果這麼做的話，能為台灣創造的貢獻，比 AppWorks 繼續獨立營運還會巨大許多，想不到蔡董事長毫不猶豫的答應。也因此，我回頭與 AppWorks 的夥伴們溝通，得到大家的支持後，我們決定一起接受這個挑戰。所以開頭我說，我不是接下了台灣大總經理的職位，而是接下了整合台灣大與 AppWorks，放大出 10 倍成果的任務。

當然，這不是一件容易的工作，發展新的商業模式，我或許有 20 年的創業、工作經驗作為後盾，但對於管理電信事業，對於領導一個 7,000 人的大集團，我有太多需要學習的地方，所以，我請蔡董事長務必持續扮演我的 Partner，在這個過程中一起確保電信本業的營運，好讓我們有最大的空間與時間，去爭取新事業的發展，為所有「台灣大 + AppWorks」的 Stakeholders，爭取最佳的長期利益。

未來幾年，將是電信業轉型的關鍵時期，去年 499 之亂加速電信用戶 ARPU (平均每戶營收) 的下滑，消費者換機時間拉長導致手機營收停滯，接下來資本支出是 4G 近 4 倍的 5G 即將到來，更讓電信長達 20 年紅利時代難以延續，AI、IoT、Blockchain、Cloud 等巨型典範轉移接連的到來，進一步逼迫電信業者不能繼續防守。

另一方面，電信業已經建立的品牌、長期客戶關係、大量用戶數據，卻是極有價值，可以更全面應用的資產。透過台灣大 + AppWorks 的結合，目前已經產生 760 億年營收的 AppWorks 的 328 家新創，以及未來將持續培養的更多新興企業，都有機會透過與台灣大的合作加速成長，而台灣大也能因此取得新的營收引擎，創造雙贏的局面。

所以，在可預見的未來，AppWorks 的方向不會改變，我們將持續邀請優秀的創業者加入，透過 AppWorks 原有的能量，以及新增的台灣大平台幫助他們。AppWorks 基金的營運也不會改變，事實上，加入了台灣大的能量，我們有信心能為 LP 們創造更好的財務、策略報酬。我的角色，除了新增台灣大總經理以外，也沒有改變，將持續擔任 AppWorks 的董事長、合夥人，戮力確保台灣大 + AppWorks 的整合能順利成功、長長久久，創造多贏。唯一改變的，大概是我的工作時間將會增加，因此要犧牲與家人的相處，在此先跟偉大的老婆、兩個可愛的兒子道歉，感謝他們對這個決定的支持與諒解。

至於搬遷至雅加達、引導更多 AppWorks 新創進軍印尼的計畫，很遺憾必須暫緩，所幸 AppWorks 的新任合夥人 Jessica (劉侊縈)，已經承諾會扛起這個責任，相信在她的帶領下，AppWorks 的印尼計畫還是能夠大鳴大放、開花結果。

以上，就是針對此次台灣大 + AppWorks 的重大發展，向各位好友、媒體朋友的報告，懇求你們的支持。無論如何，我會持續為貢獻台灣而努力，希望我們這一輩的小孩們長大後，可以和我們一樣，以做台灣人為榮。

最後，預祝 您

新年快樂 諸凡順遂
助君張目 豬滿福保

Earlier today, Taiwan Mobile published an announcement communicating their intention to appoint me as the company’s general manager as of 4/1/2019. I’m sure this announcement may come as a surprise to many of my friends in the startup community, likely leaving you all with ample questions, concerns, and potentially even doubt. Let me take the opportunity to clarify the situation and explain the reasonings behind my decision for everyone.

Firstly, I must clarify that I am not merely taking over as GM of Taiwan Mobile, but taking on the bigger job of integrating Taiwan Mobile, a $12B market cap & $3.8B revenue company, and AppWorks, a $3.6B valuation & $2.5B revenue ecosystem, to amplify our impact by 10x.

But to adequately understand where we’re going, I think it’s important for everyone to know where we’ve come from. This begins with my story—for those of you that haven’t heard it before—which dates back to my time living in New York. It was around 2008 when I saw the launch of iPhone and Android, as well as the advent of Facebook, Twitter, etc, collectively catapulting social media into mainstream use. It was clear that software was increasingly taking over the world while the value of hardware was becoming more and more commoditized. This posed a dire existential threat to Taiwan, whose global economic contributions had been primarily driven by hardware and semiconductor manufacturing. This eventually prompted my resolve to move back to Taiwan and prevent our country from becoming a relic of the past.

This was by no means an easy decision. Not only did I have to give up my American dream, but my wife and child would have to completely uproot their lives, changing jobs and schools. It was a huge sacrifice on their end, so after moving back I dedicated myself to working hard every day to maximize my contribution to Taiwan and exert the greatest impact possible.

I have worn a lot of hats since, and it may seem that there is no correlation on the surface. But, there is indeed a common purpose behind them, which is to promote change in Taiwan. First of all, I have long written posts and columns in online communities such as my own blog, Facebook, and journals like “The Commonwealth Magazine,” while also giving speeches and interviews for a variety of outlets whenever possible. I see these activities as a way to share new knowledge, new ideas, and disseminate the nutrients needed for progress.

I set up AppWorks with my partners to systematically help young people start their own businesses and cultivate the next generation of business leaders that will steer Taiwan forward. That's why AppWorks started its semi-annual startup accelerator in 2010, and has been offering it for free ever since. With the addition of the latest batch AW#17, the AppWorks Ecosystem encompasses 328 active startups and 925 founders, having collectively generated US$ 2.5 billion in revenues and created 9,586 jobs—not an immaterial contribution to Taiwan’s economy needless to say. More importantly, we’ve created a tight-knit community where founders can form lifelong relationships, while seeking advice from both peers and mentors in good times and bad. I see that as a long-term value to society.

Once AppWorks took a firm foothold in Taiwan, we began targeting Southeast Asia in 2014 to invite outstanding ASEAN entrepreneurs to join us. We hope to promote Taiwan's regionalization through a network of international founders, and in turn, facilitate the development of SEA’s digital economy. We've made significant strides these past five years. AW#18 will kick off in March 2019, and consists of 33 teams, 19 of which hailing from countries across SEA and beyond. Spanning our entire ecosystem, AppWorks encompasses 160 companies currently operating in Southeast Asia, forming a truly regional network. Now, AppWorks founders from Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are expanding to Indonesia and Vietnam, and it is easy to find local AppWorks alumni to lead the way, greatly reducing the barriers for international expansion.

In addition to AppWorks Accelerator, we have been working hard to create more examples for a modern Taiwan. Taking venture capital as an example, we successfully raised US$ 11 million for Fund I in 2012 and US$ 50 million for Fund II in 2014. Under the efforts of the AppWorks team, the investment performance of the two funds is currently above the industry average, of which Fund II has achieved an annualized internal rate of return (IRR) of 29%. This is much higher than the top quartile of VCs in both Europe and the United States. By pursuing the same performance as international first-class funds, we hope to encourage Taiwanese LPs (short for venture capital investors) to be more confident in supporting local emerging GPs (short for venture capital management companies) and to promote the recovery and ultimate longevity of Taiwan's VC industry.

In 2016, we created AppWorks School with the aim of helping the younger generation pick up new skill sets, enhance their careers, and join the growing tech industry. The school offers four-month free programs and has now graduated 106 students, 85% of whom have secured jobs as software engineers, with a median starting salary of US$ 21,833. Although our scale is still tiny compared to larger institutes, we hope our efforts have inspired others to promote the modernization of Taiwan’s education system and equip young people with the necessary skills to thrive in the AI ​​era.

In addition, although AppWorks is still a small to medium-sized enterprise, it has received a lot of attention. Therefore, it often leads by example and demonstrates how to apply new thinkings to modern corporate management. In addition to internationally-competitive salaries, our colleagues enjoy flexible working hours and locations, unlimited vacation days, and several weeks off around Chinese New Year. AppWorks also recently launched an internal promotion track, promoting two of our very own staff to partners, Jessica Liu (30) and Andy Tsai (40). We hope that this move will also create a ripple effect across traditional Taiwanese industries, inspiring more local enterprises to put their faith in younger leaders.

Alongside the private sector, I am also actively involved in promoting Taiwan’s transformation through public sector activities. In 2016, I took over as chairman of TiEA (Taiwan Internet and E-Commerce Association) from Mr. Hung-Tze Jan (詹宏志). After taking office, I have worked hard to promote our industry and successfully convinced government cabinet members to create a separate category for e-commerce companies, which didn’t previously exist in Taiwan’s stock market. Since 2017, I have been the co-convenor of the Asia-Silicon Valley Development Agency Advisory Committee, advisor of DIGI+ Taiwan, and the country’s member in ABAC (APEC Business Advisory Council). Most recently in 2018, I was appointed by the President to represent Taiwan in the APEC Vision Group, where 21 member states come together to define APEC's vision for the next 20 years. Although these are all voluntary work, I have treated them as full-time jobs because they produce opportunities that can greatly influence Taiwan’s future.

Finally, last year I was prepared to uproot my family again and move to Jakarta. With a population of 260 million people, I observed that Indonesia was a rapidly emerging economy, producing many areas where Taiwan and Taiwanese companies can contribute. In the span of just five years, Indonesia went from a barren startup landscape to producing four local unicorns and attracting the presence of three international unicorns. Although the opportunities are abundant, Indonesia’s ecosystem was much different from Taiwan’s, creating immense cultural, regulatory, and competitive barriers for Taiwanese companies. I had thus planned on relocating to Jakarta in hopes of better leading AppWorks startups into Indonesia and shortening our distance from the world’s fourth most populous country and GSEA’s biggest economy. I would have had to sacrifice some of my roles and responsibilities in my Taiwan, but I put faith in my partners and co-workers to fill the void.

With all that said, I want you to understand that the underlying mission to change Taiwan has never faltered. With this mission in mind, I’ve never hesitated in making decisions over the years because I’ve never needed to consider my own interests—but only the things I can do at the moment to best contribute to Taiwan and generate the most impact. It’s what prompted my resolution to move back from New York, my intent to move to Jakarta, and now my decision to take on this new opportunity with “Taiwan Mobile + AppWorks.”

Not long ago, the Chairman of Taiwan Mobile Daniel Tsai reached out and asked if I was interested in taking over as General Manager of Taiwan Mobile. At first, I was unable to take his offer because I was getting ready to move to Indonesia and I didn’t know how this would contribute to making Taiwan better. After allowing myself a few days to contemplate, I found an answer. I told Chairman Tsai that I would take on the position, but only if I can pursue these 4 ambitions:

First, leverage the AppWorks ecosystem to help transform Taiwan Mobile into a true technology company. At the same time, leverage Taiwan Mobile as a platform to accelerate the growth of AppWorks startups, thereby creating a successful collaboration template for other Taiwan & SEA large corporations to work with startups.

Second, with AppWorks leading the way, establish Taiwan Mobile + AppWorks into a regional technology group across Greater Southeast Asia, in turn, inspiring other Taiwanese companies to explore Southeast Asia as well as becoming a platform for startups to go regional.

Third, build Taiwan Mobile + AppWorks group to a market cap of US$ 100 billion and create the first non-OEM company that originates from Taiwan and truly reaches a global scale.

Fourth, throughout the process, all the bonuses I am entitled to shall be donated by the group to public welfare, focusing specifically on promoting education reform and the film industry in Taiwan.

I told Chairman Tsai if these are the goals, it’s worth dedicating the next 10 - 15 years of my life to achieve. This is basically my dream list. If I do this, the contribution to Taiwan and the GSEA region as a whole from the combined entity will be much greater than the continued independent operation of AppWorks. Chairman Tsai agreed on these four goals and gave me his promise, but it was still not a decision that I could make on my own--after all building AppWorks into what is it today was not something I did alone. Therefore, I went back to communicate with the AppWorks partners and team, and with everyone's support, we decided to accept this challenge together.

Thus, at the beginning of the post, I said, that I am not only taking over the position of Taiwan Mobile’s GM, but undertaking the task of integrating Taiwan Mobile and AppWorks to amplify our impact by 10x. Of course, developing a completely new business model is not an easy job. I may have 20 years of entrepreneurship and work experience under my belt, but I still have much to learn when it comes to managing a massive telecoms operation with over 7,000 people, most of whom are much more familiar with the industry than me. Therefore, I asked Chairman Tsai to act as my partner through the process to ensure the continued operations of the telecoms unit. This will enable more time and space to develop new businesses, benefiting all “Taiwan Mobile + AppWorks” stakeholders in the long run.

The telecoms industry will likely undergo a crucial transformation in the next few years. Last year’s “NT$499 war” accelerated the decline of telecom subscribers’ ARPU (average revenue per household). Longer replacement periods for smartphones have led to the stagnation of mobile phone revenues and the rollout of 5G will cost four times the capex as 4G. These factors all threaten the industry’s ability to maintain the fluid growth it’s experienced for the past 20 years. Furthermore, the arrival of paradigm shifting technologies such as AI, IoT, Blockchain, and Cloud have put all telecom operators on the defensive.

On the other hand, the telecoms industry has established brands, long-term customer relationships, and a massive amount of user data—all valuable assets that can be better maximized. Through the combination of Taiwan Mobile + AppWorks and the 328 startups that AppWorks has cultivated, all emerging startups will be able to look to the combined platform as a strategic engine for cooperation and growth. This is will also enable Taiwan to develop new sources of value creation--a win-win for both sides.

Therefore, in the foreseeable future, AppWorks will not change direction. We will continue to invite outstanding entrepreneurs to join our accelerator, staying true to the original ethos of AppWorks, while leveraging the new Taiwan Mobile platform to help them. The operation of AppWorks Funds will not change. In fact, with the backing of Taiwan Mobile’s resources, we are confident that we can create better financial and strategic rewards for LPs. My role at AppWorks will not change. I will continue to serve as a partner of AppWorks. I will ensure that the integration of Taiwan Mobile + AppWorks will be a successful, long-lasting win-win situation for all stakeholders involved. The only change is probably that my working hours will increase, effectively cutting into my family time. So first, I must apologize to my great wife and two lovely sons, and thank them for their continued support and understanding of this decision.

As for the plan to move to Jakarta and guide more AppWorks startups to enter Indonesia, regrettably it must be suspended. Fortunately, Jessica Liu, AppWorks’ newest partner, has promised to take up this responsibility. I believe that under her leadership, AppWorks' Indonesia initiative will still be able to make a big splash and develop fruitfully.

Hopefully, this post has provided you with all the relevant details regarding the Taiwan Mobile + AppWorks announcement. To friends and media, I sincerely appreciate your continued support. At any rate, I will continue to work hard to contribute to Taiwan. I hope that the children of our generation will grow up and be proud of being Taiwanese.

Finally, I wish everyone all the best. Have a wonderful and prosperous pig year!